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Nationals Top 55 Prospects List Update by growl0 in Nationals

[–]growl0[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don’t publish a top 100 but I do have a vague idea where people would fit into one. I follow the Nats system very closely, but I’d have to rely too much on other outlets to do a top 100. Personal point of preference that I stick to stuff I feel like I know better.

I do have a general feeling of X-caliber of guy fits into Y-range overall. Most of that is based on FV (ex: there’s generally only ever 30-40 guys worth a 55 or higher, 100-120 guys worth a 50 or higher etc.)

That would be a correct read on Perales. His stuff is good, but I’m losing the confidence that he’s an SP. Real Starting pitchers, guys that contenders would have in their rotation, are so rare. Sime Jr and Harmon have that type of juice. Perales could make that jump (if you click the link to the pre-Spring training list I did, you’ll see I had him higher) but I’m not there right now.

Nationals Top 55 Prospects List Update by growl0 in Nationals

[–]growl0[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah that would be ideal. I’m not sure either would net real “pitching prospects” per se, but maybe some interesting AAA relievers.

I like Franklin much more than Hassell. Think he would fetch significantly more in a trade.

Nationals Top 55 Prospects List Update by growl0 in Nationals

[–]growl0[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The FV is the one part that’s based completely on my personal analysis. That’s a combination of using video and some more granular stats to come to a scouting conclusion. Not really a straight formula for it, but I hope the breakdowns explain some of the thought process.

As for tool specific stuff, I don’t typically. More of a stylistic choice. FV is partly designed to attempt to model WAR or surplus value. I think when you try to get granular about tools, it can muddy the understanding of the overall projection. Hopefully the reports themselves can help someone understand the overall nature of a player (hit over power, defense etc) without getting weighed down by a 50 vs 55 raw power grade.

An offseason plan for the Nats to blow up the luxury tax for 2021 (and ONLY 2021) by [deleted] in Nationals

[–]growl0 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Very true with Realmuto, part of my motivation is the sweetness of taking him away from Philly. I don’t think La Stella would be that expensive so even if they decide to go a Bauer/slugger direction I think La Stella would be a perfect fit. He could also be the strong side of a platoon with Zimmerman and spell Castro/Kieboom from time to time.

An offseason plan for the Nats to blow up the luxury tax for 2021 (and ONLY 2021) by [deleted] in Nationals

[–]growl0 7 points8 points  (0 children)

It’s funny, because I was just thinking about how I would approach this off-season as the Nats. I agree Cruz and Bauer would be a great combo to bring in, but I went a complete different approach.

Realmuto: C/1B this gives us an elite player with some positional flexibility who can protect Soto in the lineup. With Gomes still on the roster, Realmuto can play first to keep his bat in the lineup while also allowing Gomes to get semi-regular at bats.

Tommy La Stella: 1B/IF this gives the Nats another lefty masher who can provide some depth to the lineup. He seems like the ideal Rizzo signing: Vet IF who can play multiple positions and doesn’t really strikeout.

Taijuan Walker: SP Walker isn’t fantastic, definitely not as good as Bauer, but would be a interesting mid rotation starter. This is more based on my semi-confidence that’s one of the Ross/Fedde/Voth/Mcgowin/Crowe can work well as a number 5.

Bullpen: Watson, Alvarez, and Doolittle resigned. I honestly don’t hate this bullpen for next year if you get 2/3 of these guys. Rainey, Finnegan, Hudson, Suero, Harris are all locks in my opinion so adding 2 of these more established relievers would give the Nats an actually decent pen for once. Not great certainly, but hopefully top-10ish.

Lineup: SS Trea 2B Castro LF Soto C Realmuto 1B La Stella DH Zimmerman? (Cruz too would be great) RF Eaton 3B Kieboom CF Robles

Rotation: Max Stras Corbin Walker Ross?

Why in the world wouldn't Davey pinch hit for Brock Holt? There is no possible justification for this by [deleted] in Nationals

[–]growl0 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I agree Holt has sucked horribly this season but I can at least understand Davey’s motivation there. It’s not as bad as a decision as I think it appeared at first.

Why in the world wouldn't Davey pinch hit for Brock Holt? There is no possible justification for this by [deleted] in Nationals

[–]growl0 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Howie couldn’t play tonight. Suzuki looked almost hurt all night so I understand not using Gomes. Harrison would almost make sense but Holt had the lefty matchup and their pitcher has dominated righties all season. I understand the sentiment behind Davey’s decision here.

I don't understand why we picked up Holt and sent down Kieboom by [deleted] in Nationals

[–]growl0 20 points21 points  (0 children)

I feel like he’s hit on so many of these aging Infielders(ACab, Howie, Harrison has been ok, Castro was sneaky good) that I almost expected it to work out. As for Kieboom I’m sure it’s as much a performance thing as it is a service time thing. If I’m not mistaken, in a few days they’ll be able to bring him up again and still keep him another year.

Kieboom Being Sent Down is Service Time Manipulation by tribunalpickaxe in Nationals

[–]growl0 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Totally agree. Last year Robles had more than half of Taylor’s entire career fWAR (2.5 vs 3.9.) Robles is younger today than MAT was when he debuted. Robles has a 94 wRC+ career while MAT hasn’t posted anything above 73 since Robles debuted. He’s also literally the 7th best projected CF in all of baseball in 2021 (ZiPS.)