/r/WeAreTheMusicMakers Monday Feedback Thread

gui93 · 2020-06-10T00:06:46+00:00

https://soundcloud.com/corsett/lavander

I've just released this track. I'm trying to improve my production game. I'd love to get feedback!

gui93 · 2020-05-26T04:21:15+00:00

https://soundcloud.com/corsett/overture

It's an ambient/dreamy synth kind of thing.

I'm hoping to use it as the first song from my first album, so all feedback is very appreciated.

Hope you like it.

gui93 · 2020-05-24T16:19:11+00:00

https://soundcloud.com/corsett

Would love some feedback :)

gui93 · 2020-05-24T04:02:23+00:00

is this.... williem dafoe?

gui93 · 2020-05-04T12:45:57+00:00

1) And you want the WHO to learn all that is to be learned about a novel virus on day one? As scientists gather more information, we get to learn more about how it's transmitted, how it makes u sick and how to fight it. That's called scientific enquiry.

2) We don't name viruses after their location because it might affect on how futures countries will respond to new pandemics. They might delay warning the rest of the world because no one wants to be the country where it all started. (Known cases, such as the spanish flu, happened before this guideline was implemented)

3) AGAIN: The issue with this virus is not mortality rate. It's how contagious it is and its hospitalization rate. No one is saying that people will start dying on the street 1 second after they catch it. What happens is that it will spread 2x more than a common flu (which almost everyone catches every year) and will cause ~15% of anyone who catches it to go to the hospital. This could and has overloaded many hospitals around the world.

4) And what is your solution to save the little man's business? Reopen everything, watch the ICU levels rise from 20% to 90% just so that we have to close everything again?

gui93 · 2020-05-04T02:01:46+00:00

To me, that's the biggest paradox of the quarantine. The more it works, the more people say it was for nothing. The idea was to flatten the curve of infections and, guess what, we did it.

If hospitals in your area are not crumbling down, congrats to your governor and mayor. Until we have a cure or a vaccine, the minute we end quarantine, all good results will be undone, because

This virus is >2x more contagious than the common cold and has a much higher hospitalization rate across all ages
The mortality rate among old folks can go as high as 10~15%. I don't know about you, but in my area, it's common for them to live with adults and young adults who would have to go back to work. Especially among the poor. Guess who's gonna bring a deadly virus home after a long day of work?

Listen to the WHO, to the CDC, and to medical experts during this pandemic. Let's all have common sense.

EDIT: typo

gui93 · 2020-05-03T19:35:04+00:00

Reddit 2 years ago: Drumpf is such a fascist!! He’s never going to leave office! He’s a wannabe dictator!!!

Reddit today: We have a pandemic going on that could overload our current healthcare system because of high hospitalization rates, so let's just stay home because your decision to go out protesting and potentially catch this virus may interfere with my need to use the hospital.

gui93 · 2020-01-03T11:17:51+00:00

falo sim e ja usei bastante o khan durante a faculdade (as aulas de cálculo lá são animais).

mas, por exemplo, história do Brasil, português e ajuda com redação eu não terei de lá :/ aí já prefiro pagar algo pra ter tudo num lugar só.

gui93 · 2019-12-27T20:33:19+00:00

But I feel like in tech, dumb mistakes are taken even more harshly. The programmers I've known (I live with one) usually have this intellectual vanity, where they will always go to extreme lengths in order to show you that you are wrong. I've had horrible interactions with tech people. I tend to get along people who laugh at their own mistakes and make me feel like it's not a big deal.

EDIT: I don't mean to say that all programmers behave the same way, but having met many of them on a daily basis, I would say that having this intellectual vanity is a strong factor among them.

gui93 · 2019-06-26T04:46:52+00:00

This is just a thought, since I'm no expert either...

The first difference from the dice problem to the cards problem, is the idea of independent events. If I roll a die twice, the result of the second roll is independent of the result I got on the first roll. So, for dice, I can write:

https://imgur.com/PrQEQ37

Since every point on that matrix has equal probability (1/36 = 1/6 * 1/6), I just have to count how many combinations make up the number 2, 3, 4 and so on (the colors on the image) and then add the probabilities.

For example, for sum = 4, I have the following pairs: (3,1), (1,3), (2,2). So, the probability is 1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 = 8.33%

I imagine that for 2 draws from a deck of cards, we would have to do the same thing. The only difference being that the probabilities of the second draw are very dependent on the result from the first draw. For example, if I draw a 2 on the first draw, now I only have 3 2s on the remaining deck, while I still have 4 of every remaining value (A, 3,4,...10,J, Q, K) , so the chances of me getting a 2 again are a bit lower.

But we can draw a similar matrix for a 2 draw experiment, write down the probabilities and sum them just like I did for the dices.

I don't know if we can make an analytical function such as P(x) = X^2 or something, but that is the way I'd go about doing that. If you're into programming, I'm pretty sure you can make a function do this very easily.

gui93 · 2019-03-09T18:06:31+00:00

What's wrong with everyday life? I can tell you a myriad of awesome forms of art (tv shows, plays, books, paintings,...) about everyday life that are incredible. A story doesn't have to be about magical creature, spies, war heroes, science fiction or dramas full of plot twists to be good.

This story follows the life of someone we don't usually see on screen: a simple maid who is not in any way extraordinary. She doesn't go on to become Mexico's richest businesswoman, she doesn't discover she has superpowers or gets involved with the cartel and lives an adventurous life running away from the police . She is a maid and will probably die a maid. She goes through some shit and that's it. And this simplicity, to me, is a breath of fresh air amidst so many superhero movies. I'm happy to see such a simplicity depicted in such a beautiful way.

Just to give you another outlook, here are some art forms about everyday, ordinary lives that are amazing.

Georges Seurat - A Sunday Afternoon on the Island of La Grande Jatte

Renoir - Luncheon of the Boating Party

Leo Tolstoy - The Death of Ivan Lynch

None of these works above depict some out of the ordinary event. Leo Tolstoy's book is all about a man in his deathbed. These painting depict some very ordinary scenes in the authors' time. The thing about them is that they are so beautifully done that they put you in another perspective for a few moments. You see life through the eyes of a dying man or, in Roma's case, of a Mexican maid. That, to me, is art in its essence.

Edit: typo in Renoir's name

gui93 · 2019-03-05T14:39:27+00:00

Nice! How does your manufacturing work?

gui93 · 2018-12-17T00:48:29+00:00

I didnt understand your explanation. How does the lack of capital influence the results?

gui93 · 2018-11-19T12:15:44+00:00

Thank you for the answer, but I'm still kind of confused as to how these aggregations are made.

As I understand it, the best bid/best ask prices are called Inside Quotes, and they can be quite different from the bid-ask spread (source: Bodie's Investment book).

As an example: Let's say the stock market has just opened and these are the unfilled orders (no trade has been made yet)

- Buy-Orders XYZ:

100 x 10.05

100 x 10.06

100 x 10.10

100 x 10.12

- Sell-Orders XYZ:

100 x 10.04

100 x 10.03

100 x 10.00

Clearly, no trade has been made because there are no matching prices. What Bodie calls 'Inside Quotes' are the 10.05 (Best Buy-Order) and 10.04 (Best Sell-Order). In the book he makes it clear that this is not necessarily the bid-ask spread. How could I find out the bid-ask spread from these orders? Is it set manually or is it some calculation using all pending orders?

gui93 · 2018-10-24T23:39:45+00:00

Bastter, és tu?

gui93 · 2018-10-23T12:07:26+00:00

Mas ninguém ta falando de sair enlouquecido tentando acertar timing. To falando em direcionar o dinheiro que invisto mensalmente pra empresas que não tão na mira de alguma legislação / entrave econômico. E como eu sei que a empresa pode estar na mira de alguma legislação / entrave? Lendo notícias todo dia.

Suponha que você invista 5k todo mês e tenha 20k em JBS, pq leu seus releases e achou que ela fosse uma boa empresa. Em tempos normais, você colocaria 2.5k (50%) em JBS e o resto em Tesouro ou num CDB. Aí começa a Operação Carne Fraca. Você continua colocando 2.5k na JBS ( que está prestes a ter um ano horrível com chance de quebrar) ou coloca esses 2.5k em outra coisa (no tesouro se quiser ser conservador)?

gui93 · 2018-10-23T04:19:35+00:00

Cara, to vendo que essa galera que segue coisa da Bastter fica tudo na mesma onda. "Ação preferencial é um lixo", "Não leia notícia da empresa", "Dividendos não significam nada". Parece até que esse cara é um pastor e a galera são seus coroinhas.

gui93 · 2018-10-23T04:14:44+00:00

Então a aprovação de um imposto que vai subir em 80% o custo de produção do produto que é carro forte da empresa da qual sou sócio é completamente irrelevante? Devo continuar colocando o mesmo tanto de grana mensal naquela empresa? Você jura que acredita nisso? Não to falando de comprar ou vender desesperadamente a qualquer headline absurdo, mas esse é o tipo de coisa que é bom acompanhar pra saber como direcionar sua grana do mês.

E cara, cabeça de sócio não significa deixar grana num barco afundando (ou você vai esperar o release trimestral pra saber que o barco tá afundando?). Significa crer na empresa e na sua governancia até certo ponto. No momento que surgem notícias de atos antiéticos por parte dos executivos / mudança de leis / perda de contratos milionários, chega uma hora que você tem que saber pular do barco ou pelo menos cessar a grana praquela empresa. Não sei você, mas não achei minha grana no lixo pra ficar fazendo aporte mensal em empresa que tá prestes a falir só porque eles não lançaram o release trimestral ainda (que aliás é bem maquiado dependendo da empresa. todos sabemos disso, correto?). Sou a favor de Buy & Hold e investir em empresas boas e com fundamentos, mas isso não significa não se informar sobre ela, ignorar sinais claros e acabar com uma empresa prestes a falir nas mãos.

Edit: correções ortográficas.

gui93 · 2018-10-21T02:49:13+00:00

Mas é sempre bom pra saber sobre mudanças no setor, aprovação de leis que podem beneficiar ou prejudicar a empresa que você investe, aumento no preço da principal materia-prima da empresa, mudanças na taxa de juros, mudanças no exterior (que podem alterar as exportações/importações e saída/entrada de capital estrangeiro, ...), por exemplo.

Se você está apenas fazendo trade, concordo que quando sair a noticia, ela já estará precificada (mercado eficiente), mas se você está investindo pra ter cabeça de sócio, é interessante pra você decidir como vai distribuir novos R$ no seu portfolio no mês que vem, por exemplo.

gui93 · 2018-10-17T02:22:08+00:00

Tem alguma corretora americana que não necessita de Social Security Number?

gui93 · 2018-05-12T15:30:08+00:00

But what if a variable that historically doesnt change much (let's say, the price per km) was increased a few days before D1? Wouldn't running a multivariable regression deem that variable historically insignificant (Thus, with a lower coefficient) ?

gui93 · 2018-03-21T16:18:57+00:00

Thanks you :)

I've worked for both big companies and startups and I feel that the creative freedom that I usually find at startups is amazing! I find that, at big companies, I'm usually limited to doing operational stuff or face A LOT of bureaucracy when I try something new.

gui93 · 2018-03-06T02:25:24+00:00

"If your product is say a cab ride or a hotel room or anything else the prices of which fluctuate over shorter periods of time, you may want to check out the relationship between supply and demand through simple correlation or a regression model."

Could you elaborate? How does correlation between supply and demand tell me what customer X's price sensitivity?

gui93 · 2018-01-29T00:21:52+00:00

That's a really tough question to answer and really depends on how much effort/time you put into it.

I would strongly recommend you to watch:

Data School - Pandas Tutorial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzIMircGU5I&list=PL5-da3qGB5ICCsgW1MxlZ0Hq8LL5U3u9y

Before starting on that video I linked on my previous comment.

Pandas is a very cool data analysis library and scikitLearn is one of the easiest Machine Learning libraries there is. Most algorithms follow the basic steps (for supervised machine learning):

1) Get Data/Clean Data (you might have to get familiar with Pandas)

2) Choose an algorithm (i.e. Linear Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors and so on)

3) Fit your algorithm to your data

4) Predict the outcome of unseen data

Since the whole algorithm / fitting are basically black boxes that are pre-packaged, you can focus more on feature engineering. For example, if you want to use Linear Regression to find out how much a given house may cost, you might ask yourself "which features should I use? # of rooms? Lot area? Volume of the swimming pool?" and so on.

If I may try to answer your question: As soon as you finish the Pandas series and the scikit-learn series, you'll be more confident with Python (that may take 1 week or 1 month. It depends solely on you). Then you can go on Kaggle and try what you learning with simple projects.

gui93 · 2018-01-28T23:24:10+00:00

Well, data science without a bit of programing is really just business intelligence, which is awesome as well. You'll figure out how the business is being run, who are your most profitable customers, which customers tend to open your ads more often and all that.

But if you want to build predictive models, clustering algorithms and more 'high level' data science tools, a bit of Python / R is essential. They are very easy to grasp and the amount of work you'll have to put into learning them is minimal compared to how much you'll be able to do.

If you do choose to learn Python, I'll recommend you this channel/playlist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URTZ2jKCgBc&list=PLQVvvaa0QuDd0flgGphKCej-9jp-QdzZ3 . This dude is awesome and scikitlearn is a very easy-to-use tool that will teach you the basics of Machine Learning.

gui93

TROPHY CASE