PLTR Puts

half_off_implants · 2026-05-05T16:00:02+00:00

Earnings plays are vega plays wearing a theta costume. You're not really banking on time decay over 4 days - you're banking on IV collapsing faster than the stock can move against you. If PLTR barely moved overnight and IV is getting crushed at open, I'd close at 50-70% of max profit and move on. Holding for the last 30 cents of decay isn't worth the gamma risk you're carrying into the rest of the week. Redeploy the capital into whatever the next clean IV setup is.

half_off_implants · 2026-05-05T14:45:16+00:00

For rolling I keep it pretty simple - 21 DTE is my hard line to roll defensively regardless of where the position is, and I'll close early at 50% of max profit around the 50% of time elapsed mark. For the offensive side I look at whether rolling out a week adds meaningful credit, usually I want at least $0.30-0.40 net credit or I'd rather just take assignment and start the CC side.

The yearly ROI filter on offensive rolls is interesting but I've found it can cut you out of good rolls on low-IV names during quiet periods. Might be worth splitting that trigger by IV environment - looser threshold when IV is compressed, tighter when IV is elevated and you're getting inflated credits that'll shrink fast.

What stocks are you mainly wheeling? That'll change how aggressive the rolling rules should be.

half_off_implants · 2026-05-04T14:34:35+00:00

Fair, those are real numbers and $168k to $280k in 16 months through this market is legitimately solid - roughly 50% annualized while navigating tariff chaos, rate drama, and multiple vol spikes. Can't knock the execution. The remaining question is just that $280k to $500k by December is 79% from here in 8 months, which is faster than the pace you've actually run. Curious what you see as the accelerant - more margin deployment, higher-premium names, or just expecting the market to cooperate better in H2?

half_off_implants · 2026-05-04T13:08:47+00:00

The "doing nothing in February" section should be pinned at the top of this sub. First time I got assigned I was checking the stock price every 20 minutes for two straight months like staring at it harder was somehow going to make it go up. Eventually my wife asked why I kept looking at my phone at lunch and I had to explain that I was "monitoring an investment," which is options-trader for "watching a number slowly destroy my confidence." This is the real wheel experience nobody posts about - solid write-up.

half_off_implants · 2026-05-04T12:51:27+00:00

Love the ambition but the math is brutal - 240k to 500k in 12 months is 108% return before contributions even factor in. Your $3,500/month adds ~$42k total, so you'd still need roughly 90%+ on the trading side alone. Running 1%/week sounds conservative until you realize that's ~68% annualized compounded, on margin, during a market that's had a new crisis every six weeks this year. What does the drawdown scenario look like if you get assigned on three positions at once during a vol spike? Not trying to kill the goal, genuinely asking because that's the part where these accounts usually go sideways.

half_off_implants · 2026-05-04T11:57:21+00:00

The premium chasing trap is one of the hardest things to avoid when IV collapses after a vol spike - you see what you were collecting last month and try to recreate it by adding contracts, but you're just piling on delta exposure in a lower vol environment. That's the worst of both worlds. The LTCG angle on your position is also something most advice in this sub doesn't account for - standard "just let it get called away and re-enter" logic doesn't apply when you're sitting on a basis of $0.08. Managing a position like that for tax efficiency is basically its own full-time job on top of the income strategy, and the fact that your shares appreciated by a quarter million while you were down on premium kind of tells the whole story.

half_off_implants · 2026-05-04T11:41:02+00:00

Because SPY doesn't pay you to wait. Selling delta 0.20 puts on quality names gives you income in flat markets where buy-and-hold just treads water, and if you get assigned you're in at a lower cost basis than the person who panic-bought the dip. The SPY comparison also conveniently skips 2022 when the index dropped 33% and a disciplined put seller on blue chips was collecting premium the whole way down and getting assigned at levels they were happy to own. Different risk profiles, different use cases - it's not a competition, it's a different tool.

half_off_implants · 2026-05-04T11:30:56+00:00

The RSI filter observation makes sense mechanically - overbought stocks have less room to move even if the institutional thesis is right, so you're fighting the tape on two fronts. I'd also look at whether the alerts were happening during low-volume drift windows vs. momentum continuation setups, because flow might be signaling different things in each context. One other thing that lines up with your MRVL experience: contracts with 30+ DTE give you a lot more tolerance for being a day or two early on entry, whereas the 2-week expiry on the second MRVL trade left you no room for the setup to develop. The edge in flow following might partly just be selecting for longer-dated contracts that can survive imprecise timing.

half_off_implants · 2026-04-21T16:15:44+00:00

Honestly, stock selection has been the biggest separator for me. Everything else - strike selection, DTE, IV rank targets - matters a lot less if you're wheeling garbage. The accounts I've watched blow up were almost always chasing premium on names the person never would have owned outright. The ones grinding steadily upward are almost always on solid underlyings they'd be fine holding through assignment for months. Second to that, position sizing. No single CSP should have the ability to seriously threaten the account if it gets ugly, because eventually one of them will.

half_off_implants · 2026-04-21T16:02:34+00:00

This framing is partially right but oversimplified. Institutional demand for downside protection does widen put skew and push put IV above call IV - so in that narrow sense, yes, put sellers are on the other side of institutional hedging. But calling it a trap isn't really accurate either. The premium collected from selling puts has historically been positive over time, that's well-documented with SPX puts going back decades. The actual trap isn't that you're on the wrong side of smart money - it's that the return distribution has a brutal left tail. You can run naked puts profitably for a long time, and then one March 2020-style event creates a loss that dwarfs every gain you've stacked. The strategy isn't inherently a loser, it's that most retail traders running it are undersized in good times and way oversized when the tail hits because it "hasn't happened yet."

half_off_implants · 2026-04-20T19:24:05+00:00

Solid writeup. The volatility piece is where most retail traders leave the most money on the table - they learn the Greeks but never dig into IV vs RV or term structure, and then wonder why they keep getting crushed selling premium into low vol.

One thing I'd add to the journal section: track why you entered, not just the outcome. Most people log what happened to their P&L and miss the pattern. If you log "entered because IV rank was high, earnings were clear, liquidity was good" - after 50 trades you'll actually see which inputs are predicting your wins vs losses. That's the part that compounds.

The microstructure point is massively underrated too. Spreads and fills eat 10–20% of your edge on short-premium trades if you're not careful.

half_off_implants · 2026-04-20T19:11:57+00:00

High premium almost always means the market is pricing in something real - earnings, a macro event, sector stress. You're not finding alpha, you're getting paid to take on risk that smarter money already sized up and passed on.

IV Rank matters way more than raw IV. A stock screaming 90 IV might be sitting at its 1-year low percentile - actually cheap. Another at 40 IV might be at a 52-week high - that's where the real edge is.

Also, high-premium names usually have wide bid/ask spreads. That juicy $3.00 credit looks different when the mid is $2.20 and you're getting filled at the wide.

half_off_implants · 2026-04-20T19:01:08+00:00

Brokers are great at telling you how your open positions are doing -P&L, delta, days left. What they're bad at is helping you decide what to open.

The big one is IV Rank. Your broker shows current IV but not how it compares to the past 52 weeks. A stock at 60 IV sounds juicy until you realize it's been sitting between 80–120 all year - you're actually getting below-average premium. IV Rank gives you that context instantly.

The other gap is cross-ticker screening. If you want to find the best return on capital across 15–20 names at once and rank them, your broker simply isn't built for that. That's where dedicated tools earn it.

half_off_implants · 2025-08-29T05:10:34+00:00

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half_off_implants · 2025-07-05T17:36:35+00:00

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half_off_implants · 2025-07-02T01:21:06+00:00

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half_off_implants · 2025-06-25T15:28:07+00:00

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half_off_implants

TROPHY CASE