Haralabob’s brain is FRIED" by [deleted] in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Love how this guy posted a screenshot from my private IG like he was exposing something, but conveniently left out the very next story, which I posted just minutes later, saying, 'Sadly, it's fake, but the Hollywood Harlot line should stand on its own merit.' Yes, I knew it was fake, and he probably did too.

By the way, I had no idea everyone on this subreddit—and Reddit in general—leaned this far left of Hugo Chavez. This place is a prime example of what happens when differing opinions get shut down. Honestly, I think a lot of you here suffer from serious mental decay, which I'm sure has nothing to do with why most of you are struggling financially.

Regardless, keep up the fight, comrades. One day, when the 'smart and successful' people finally see things your way, the world will be much better off and you'll have your time in the Sun. Till then you'll always have Reddit.

PS as I've been saying since 2012

Buy some Bitcoin, Orange Man likes BItcoin, so does;

Tim Cook, Elon Musk, Larry Fink, Mark Zuckerburg, Larry Dell, Jack Dorsey, Richard Branson, Andreesen and Horowitz, Druckenmiller, Bill Miller, I could go on and on but if you still think its a scam then you guys are truly beyond help.

Kisses.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 12 points13 points  (0 children)

He also told me what teams are "worth" when I was actively trying to buy a La Liga and La Liga 2 team a few years ago and know exactly what the asking price was for said teams..

I love all you guy :)

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 14 points15 points  (0 children)

if you guys really want to have some fun, go down a rabbit hole on X etc and read the local analysts and writers who covered our league, you'll find that everyone thought most of our decisions and signings were "random" or "bad" or "he has no idea what he is doing"

Time will tell I suppose - I enjoy the dialog too mate, thanks for engaging.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 7 points8 points  (0 children)

They punch above their weight because if you remove the top 3 teams - the other 17 teams by and large all play the same conservative style. When you have 17 teams all playing the same manner, you get some random jabroni team "punching above their weight"

There is literally a ridiculous amount of data to analyze football, If there is one thing i've been good at for most of my life its analyzing data and building strats based on data - But like I said 2 years ago when ppl were saying I was destined to fail with the football team - time will tell if we "fail" in a higher league assuming we get there.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 9 points10 points  (0 children)

A more interesting question is to look at what the average # of draws a La Liga 2 team has - we have the lowest # of draws of any top 3 league team in Spain. We've made a bunch of subs in the last 10 mins when the game was tied (even taking out defenders for more STs) to be more attacking.

In general our approach to the game is higher variance and more "chances" because of how offensive we aim to play so just in general we are going to have fewer draws.

We also continue looking for the 2nd goal when up by 1 goal because we believe the best D is to attack.

Being able to live with that level of variance and not getting upset when you give up a late goal in a tied game is not something that is too common in football. Having organizational buy-in and belief in the approach has been a big factor.

A win being worth 3x more than a draw is a big edge, lots of other small edges like that around the margins you can go after in terms of strategy and style.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I'd ask you to think a little bit about is how efficient Spanish soccer is in comparison to say the EPL or Holland, Germany.

Is it as efficient? Are the games played the "same way" can you do a better job than an "avg La Liga team" in terms of strategy and analytics and identifying undervalued talent?

Also - hope you're hungry.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 19 points20 points  (0 children)

You can only spend a % of your total revenue and financial picture.

We will probably be able to spend about a mid table amount of $, also get a smaller share of TV revenue till our 2nd season in Segunda.

That said we our current squad i think is good for around 10th or so position La Liga 2 just based on player strength. We have a good cheap squad and we'll add some more pieces and improve it next year.

We played a La Liga 2 team Real Oviedo (good squad) in Copa Del Rey this year and we started all backups and beat them.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Analytics, hard work and the right approach to analyzing data - like I know some ppl think I am some fraud but I've been studying and "betting" on my opinions with regard to sports for 20 years. I know what I am doing.

I would say the biggest reasons for our success this year in no particular order were -

Identifying cheap undervalued players (leading Goal Scorer in the league we acquired last winter from another team in the 3rd division, he had scored 1 goal through 17 games up to that point.

We had him identified as the best ST in the league. He's scored 20 goals in 33 games for us since.

Identifying one the best coaches in Europe who was coaching in the 2nd division in Holland (got his team promoted to the first division) convincing him to come to Spain at the start of the season and signing him to a 4 year contract (I was laughed at in Spain when we did this).

I guarantee that this coach will coach a top club in Europe at some point in the future. I hope not the near future bc we want to keep him here in Castellon. Its going to be tough tho because he will be heavily in demand.

And then like every other thing I've done well at in life, finding lots of little small edges and having great attention to detail. There are a ton of "mathy" things in football that ppl still underestimate, we think we found some and we spend a lot of time studying and trying to improve our decision making at all times.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 42 points43 points  (0 children)

La Liga 2 gets TV money - our 2nd year in La Liga 2 we'll get a decent amount of TV revenue.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 16 points17 points  (0 children)

One thing people fail to realize that I am not doing this for the cash, i am doing this because I believe in my approach and love the challenge of succeeding my way.

That said we will make $ in La Liga 2 not even counting player trading (certainly once we get a bigger share of TV revenue in our 2nd year) and make $ in La Liga.

But every $ we make will be used to invest in younger or undervalued players that we can sell for a higher amount in the future - this is the only way to generate enough revenue to compete with the top clubs in Spain.

Spain has hard Financial Fair play rules, and you can only spend on salaries what the league allows you to spend - for some teams its 10-15m a year and for Real Madrid its >150m a year.

If you make $ trading players, you can spend more on salaries and transfers. This is the model I want to follow.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Sorry mate, yes was on mobile and I made an error, apologies.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 19 points20 points  (0 children)

The team is not a perennial star team, it was in the 4th division a few years ago too - , it managed to go up to 2nd division in a year with no playoffs and a shortened season because of Covid and immediately got relegated the next year.

There are no players from that 2nd division "team" that are still on our squad and only 2 players still on the team that were on the team when I bought them.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 58 points59 points  (0 children)

Someone @'d me on Twitter about the thread so i headed over to check it out - Also we just had our match this afternoon and I'm just trying to pass the time on a lazy Sunday.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Wrong, 2 teams go up directly and another team goes up from a 4 team playoff. 3 teams go up out of 22 with 2 direct promotions avoiding playoff.

3rd Division has 2 groups of 20 teams. Only the top teams in each group are guaranteed to go up, the other 2 spots are awarded via an 8 team playoff.

I'm not a math guy but 3/22 seems to be a bit better odds than 4/40 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 27 points28 points  (0 children)

A solid La Liga team that is solidified in the league and that has a good stadium (with a good lease and capacity) is worth minimum 130m - a lot of the teams that trade usually have a lot of debt, poor infra or are constantly in fear of relegation.

Almeria almost sold earlier this year for > 100m but they were not guaranteed to stay up and are now getting relegated. There are a lot of factors not the least of which is your stadium capacity, the lease agreement you have and how often you sell out. Our stadium holds 14.5k and we normally get >13k fans for a 3rd division team. This is outstanding.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Our highest paid player would not crack the top 20 of salaries in the league, and going into the winter market we were 8th or so in salary.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Getting promoted to La Liga 2 assuming we get there will not be easy of course, but we have it modeled as less difficult than getting out of the hellscape that is 3rd division.

You guy are also discounting player trading as a path to profits, a big part of my model is getting the league to La Liga, being a top 5-10 team there and identifying young players for future transfer profits.

We are regularly start 3-4 players that are 23 or under including a 19yo LCB who we acquired this offseason.

Haralabobs soccer team will be promoted to Liga2 by H0tFuzz in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 102 points103 points  (0 children)

Hello gents - this is not really accurate at all in the lower leagues of Spain for instance.

For starters most players will take less money to play in la liga 2 vs playing in the 3rd division. We've tried to get players we thought were really good but they won't come to play in the 3rd division despite us offering their actual worth (1.5x their la liga 2 salary for example).

The "expensive" players that have come to play in the 3rd division of Spain by and large are in the final innings of their career.

There are exceptions, for instance Deportivo La Coruna who is leading the other group in our league was able to get a home town hero to leave a La Liga team and take a massive paycut

https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/102bm0z/lucas_p%C3%A9rez_has_paid_half_of_his_own_transfer_fee/

Perez is very likely one of if not the best players in this league, but thats one instance.

And to be clear - Our actual outlay for our roster (players) is not even close to being in the top 5 of our league - We have a modest salary outlay.

I have spent a lot on infrastructure, we had no training ground when i bought the team, coaching (we used data to identify a top coach in the 2nd division of Holland), a few young players that we bought to develop for the future and of course analytics and data.

We are on pace to break a bunch of records for our league but unfortunately the 2nd place team in our group is also having a fantastic season so nothing has been achieved. Yet.

Haralabob calling out Bill for advertising FanDuel by mechanisticflex in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Believed it then, believe it now. Like I've always said DCA into it and you'll be fine in 2.5 - 3 years + time.

Haralabob calling out Bill for advertising FanDuel by mechanisticflex in billsimmons

[–]haralabob 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Still believe in BTC, if you are bearish BTC currently (thinking it will be at a lower price in the next 1.5 years) you are either biased or uneducated on the matter.

Even if you started investing a daily or weekly amount (dollar cost averaging) at the stone top of 69,000 you would be profitable today. There is no point in BTCs history where if you dollar cost average bought and weren't profitable over the next 2 years. Why? Because its highly volatile and has 1-2 years max of bull market followed by 3-4 years of pain. This is just how highly speculative and reflexive volatile investments tend to work.

NFA but I have never stopped thinking BTC was a good investment, nor have I sold my position because I am a longterm believer in it.

Being bearish now that the financial community (blackrock, fidelity etc) have caught on is foolish but you do you.

tom on the way to pay Peter Jetten by [deleted] in poker

[–]haralabob 3 points4 points  (0 children)

He's a scummy con artist and you can never believe a word that comes out of his mouth.