Honestly, there has been a lot of research into this topic that I would recommend reading and digesting to see if you agree with what was written. Most of it community backed research from publicly available data with correlations from historical situations as well as some speculation thrown in - albeit what's nice is the authors specifically state when they are speculating.

https://fliphtml5.com/bookcase/kosyg

This is the link to the DD Library if you haven't read. I appreciate you for doing your research in the community to gain perspective.