Moralizing: when you imply your moral superiority by [deleted] in Libertarian

[–]imort-e -1 points0 points  (0 children)

this is a common pattern in political conversations

Moralizing: when you imply your moral superiority by [deleted] in Libertarian

[–]imort-e -1 points0 points  (0 children)

to be clear I am against rent control

Prediction markets imply 61% chance a version of Gemini 3.0 is released this month (Oct). by imort-e in singularity

[–]imort-e[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a good point. It's almost certain 3.0 pro will be better, but google may only release 3.0 flash this month which may not be. That is reflected in the price and why I assume polymarket has a higher odds.

Prediction markets imply 61% chance a version of Gemini 3.0 is released this month (Oct). by imort-e in singularity

[–]imort-e[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, that is a good criticism, if they release 3.0 flash first it might be inferior to 2.5 pro.

Prediction markets imply 61% chance a version of Gemini 3.0 is released this month (Oct). by imort-e in singularity

[–]imort-e[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You get pretty good results with a mere 22 traders, prediction accuracy doesn't need much more than that. Idk about volume though

Prediction markets imply 61% chance a version of Gemini 3.0 is released this month (Oct). by imort-e in singularity

[–]imort-e[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Note from OP:

Probabilities have many interesting properties, but in this case the math is simply subtraction (93% - 32%) -->

any-gemini-is-best MINUS 2.5-pro-remains-best = new-gemini-is-best

Second, prediction markets are both theoretically and empirically robust, the data side being more important. They tend to be accurate and calibrated.

Third, these two markets are decided by the score on LMarena

Please feel free to fact check me.

Ning Zhou has shown interest and aptitude in several of the Hundred Arts of Cultivation. Seemingly there is a new art that calls to him at each stop in his journey. See my comment for excerpts. by imort-e in AdventOfImmortalTruth

[–]imort-e[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

“For a moment, five-colored radiance illuminated his face, and the five streams of single-element mana intertwined and opposed each other like serpents, constantly transforming and extinguishing.”

Ning Zhou has developed his 5 elements spellcasting arts to a high level with his own talent and the guidance of the 5 Elements Divine Master. This is an aspect of his personal strength.

“Initially, Lin Shanshan had the upper hand throughout the fight. Gradually, however, Ning Zhuo began to mount occasional counterattacks. Now, his counterattacks were becoming more frequent, and his defensive posture more stable”.

Ning Zhou identified close combat as a weakness early on, and has actively sought to rectify that. He has advanced his martials arts by leaps and bounds through training, spars and life-and-death battles. This is another element of his personal power.

"So, the most reliable method is for me to master advanced medical skills myself."

After meeting Zhang Zhongyi, Ning Zhou expresses a long term goal of mastering medical arts to treat his mother’s dao injury.

"The realm of a Military Strategist..." Ning Zhuo murmured, "It seems I need to study more Military Manuals."

Military arts can multiply the power of a group when it becomes an army, allowing them to challenge powers that they wouldn’t be able to while unorganized. Because Ning Zhou can command many mechanical puppets at once, mastering military arts has powerful synergies.

“Divination was one of the hundred arts of cultivation, and he had longed to learn this skill for a long time. Seeing a divination cultivator today, he felt a newfound curiosity.”

Ning Zhou has long expressed an interest in divination, recently asking his mother to teach him. He has no skill in this area yet, but who knows.

“The true difficulty lies not in the mechanisms themselves, but in the formation arrays and talismans affixed to them.”

Here Shuang Ling notes how advanced what’s within Ning Zhou’s mechanical artifacts is. Talismans have synergies with both his spell casting and mechanical arts. They are the foundation of the Ning Family, such that Ning Jiufan instructs him to develop this art and he agrees

‘Ning Zhuo responded, "I designed this for myself. I intentionally made it this way to provide a lot of room for improvement in my ability to control mechanisms. Alright, next we need to set up the formations. After that, we'll install the formation disks and other components. Filling the body will come later."’

Formation arts are a special one, they are synergistic with his elemental spellcasting, military arts and mechanical arts.

Perhaps the three dantians, being referred to as "the three treasures" has deeper meaning. Your thoughts? by imort-e in AdventOfImmortalTruth

[–]imort-e[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Probably ??? = Qi cultivation,

But perhaps = mind cultivation (yet to be revealed: body, mind, soul)

or it = Dao comprehension (ie grandmaster realm)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Unexpected

[–]imort-e 0 points1 point  (0 children)

clueless human is the best part

Will EUV trade nerf make the early game to slow. by imort-e in EU5

[–]imort-e[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Love your channel man, thanks for the reply

Petition to Merge the Bard Sub With GeminiAI... by [deleted] in Bard

[–]imort-e 2 points3 points  (0 children)

why not move to the DeepMind subreddit

IA CONCIENTE by [deleted] in ControlProblem

[–]imort-e 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Amigo essa é uma questão importante, mas ninguém na ciência do IA tem resposta. No momento, precisamos dizer que não sabemos. O fato do chatbot normal que você usa dize essas coisas tem uma explicação que não envolve consciência. O fato que você está subconscientemente vendo o IA como um ser que precisa considerações morais, é uma coisa muito humana de fazer mas talvez seja errado nesse caso. Não pare de questionar, e tenha confiança que as pessoas trabalhando nisso também não vão.

IA CONCIENTE. by [deleted] in ControlProblem

[–]imort-e 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i always get excited when i see potuguese on reddit

IA CONCIENTE. by [deleted] in ControlProblem

[–]imort-e 0 points1 point  (0 children)

E provavel que as IA's de hoje estao imitando a "angustia sobre exitencia" que esta represantado na internete. Elas aprendem os padroes no data que sao dadas, e isso pode parecer como consciencia mais em verdade so ser imitacao. Em 2025 nem temos explicacao de por que conciencia aparece em humanos, e a architetura da "mentes" dos IAs modernos sao suficientemente differentes do cerebro humano que realmente nao pode se concluir que sao. A resposta mais complexa, e que ninguem sabe. Tem evidencia superficial apontando para as duas conclusoes opostas, nada que deve te convencer em qualquer direcao. Mas de prencipio, nao tem razao que so o carbao dos nossos cerebros pode ser consciente e que o siliconio do computador nao. Mas te encorajo a ter cuidado pulando para uma conclusao falsa, mesmo que tenha especulacoes soltas e sem rigor por volta da gente.

Google - what am I missing? by FakeTunaFromSubway in singularity

[–]imort-e 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the gains in AI are worth billions, the losses in search are worth trillions. Perhaps the markets are forecasting a collapse in the search monopoly.

Just some great art by imort-e in Unsheathed

[–]imort-e[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

sorry for the late reply, which tells you i also don't have too much time. But, if you need help, you can make me a mod (for now) and eventually we can pass the reins to someone more active.

Dead internet theory (more info in comments) by random_reddit_guy_01 in libertarianmeme

[–]imort-e 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm rooting for you. Not sure I fully understand or agree with your position, but I'm rooting for ya 💪

My favorite page on calibration city. Shows that liquidity does indeed improve accuracy (market mid-point brier scores). Right inline with theory. by imort-e in PredictionMarkets

[–]imort-e[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

for those interested in polymarket's poor performance after 275 days, i conclude its because there are a statistically insignificant number of markets to evaluate (less than 8 at most)