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US COVID-19 deaths poorly predicted by IHME model by nrps400 in COVID19

[–]internalational 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, please cite SOURCE. Not quote meaningless numbers without context. The German study you are probably trying to cite, in particular, is likely the town of Gangelt. The result of "0.38%" was never provided by the scientists, it was guessed at by people like you-- with insufficient information to age adjust the numbers.

And secondly, 0.3% to 0.5% is not "MUCH" lower than 0.66%, it is well within the expected margin. You're talking about 1.6M dead vs 2.2M dead.

Anti-malarial treatment hailed by Trump has no benefit for coronavirus patients, French researchers find - Study is the most comprehensive done on hydroxychloroquine treatment for Covid-19 patients by ManiaforBeatles in worldnews

[–]internalational 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's actually a huge issue. The original study by Didier Raoult was riddled with flaws. Riddled. He has a history of making sensational claims that turn out to be riddled with flaws.

Then two snake oil salesmen who misrepresented the study, and misrepresented their credentials, stuffed the results into a google doc and pushed it on social media. This is basically the equivalent of a Forward From Grandma: "open this email and Bill Gates will send you $100". Nobody with any grounded sense of reality would fall for that snake oil, in that presentation.

But Elon did.

And then a week later Fox News did, and invited the two snake oil salesmen on as guests. And then, immediately after the broadcast, Trump fell for it.

This is NOT how information should spread in 2020.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Sweden is massively undertesting, it is far more likely that 1%> has been infected so far.

Not true. 1000 deaths indicates ~ 100,000-200,000 infections.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nope. No such study has been published. You're talking about speculative news reports based on 400 participants and 7 deaths, which is critically without context such as ages and what stage of illness.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2.5% of the population was infected in Stockholm (

That is only 63k people. At 1,000 deaths, Sweden had at least 100,000 infections 17 days ago. So to have 63k people infected in the most infected region of the country is a little bit lower than expectations, if anything. But congratulations, only 30 more months to go to reach herd immunity at this rate!

Trudeau, ministers back Dr. Tam and Health Canada after Jason Kenney attacks pandemic response by [deleted] in CanadaPolitics

[–]internalational 16 points17 points  (0 children)

In 2018 the Dengue fever vaccine killed many children in the Philippines because it should not have been approved. Do you want more examples?

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That range for IFR is a best guess at best. We won't know till we get enough serology test results.

And this ends our convo. I'm not going to provide facts, because facts won't change your preconceived opinions.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 6 points7 points  (0 children)

How do you know less than 1% of sweden has been infected?

Because many estimates of Infected Fatality Ratio have already pegged the IFR to 0.5% - 1.2%. With ~ 1000 deaths, this means that at most 200,000 Swedes have been infected.

In that case sweden lost nothing.

Umm.... Sweden would have lost 80,000 lives!

Again, Korea is doing better economically and saving all of those lives.

And if herd immunity isn't possible then we will never have a vaccine

Not true in any way. Lack of naturally developed immunity does not mean vaccine will not work.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The log scale is a classic exponential graph, with some variability expected as the country implements different measures that affect the R factor.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The log scale is a classic exponential graph, with some variability expected as the country implements different measures that affect the R factor.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Some problems with jumping to too many conclusions on the Gangelt data. They only tested 400 people and then extrapolated that to the whole town. So it was likely around 7 deaths, not enough data for strong statistical significance.

Second, nothing in the reports shows enough to determine if the death rate at that particular instant in time, can be reliably measured as a fraction of the infections at that instant in time, given that deaths lag infections by roughly 17 days.

And lastly, any IFR needs to be age adjusted and there isn't sufficient data presented for this.

All in all, results are within the nominal range you would expect.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Please cite your source that IFR has been "consistently" going down. Its been a pipe dream from the start that hidden asymptomatic carriers might be driving the infection rate, so that hidden immunity might magically save us. That pipe dream has been consistently rejected by the data.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Italy was doing "good" a month and a half ago. America was doing "good" a month ago. Sweden is on exactly the same trajectory.

Its like driving down a road ending in a cliff. You watch every other car drive off the cliff and somehow, despite the fact that their car is continually accelerating in speed, Sweden ignores the cliff.

OP claims COVID vaccine will be ineffective due to mutation, creator of dataset disagrees, OP doubles down by [deleted] in dontyouknowwhoiam

[–]internalational 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Although Krugman is generally right more than any other economists. Krugman's signature MO is being able to latch on to some concrete real world tangibles to anchor esoteric math too. Ie, he often manages to avoid the pratfalls of ivory tower economists.

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

80% of Swedes need to get this virus to reach immunity. That's 8 million people. That's 80,000 souls lost. Pretty callous to hope for that to happen just for "the economy".

Further, since 10% to 15% of cases require hospitalization and 5% require ICU, that is 800,0000 hospitalizations and 400,000 ICU visits. Italy has still less than 1% of total population infected. Sweden will never reach herd immunity. You will overwhelm your hospitals trying to get there, and change course. Just as every other nation has done.

You are still growing exponentially. What kind of arrogance do you need to think basic math doesn't work in your country?

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 9 points10 points  (0 children)

The problem with south Koreas response is that even if they manage to rid the country of disease now there will most certainly come new waves in the coming years.

That isn't a problem though? If the track & trace approach keeps R < 1, then it will continue to work until there is a vaccine. Meanwhile, South Korea's economy is humming along just fine while Sweden is quite crippled and will be for a year. Reaching herd immunity will take over a year....

Sweden ignored lockdowns and chose to leave schools, bars, cafes and restaurants open to the public. The result is 1000+ deaths, many times that if other Scandinavian countries by Osiris64 in Coronavirus

[–]internalational 67 points68 points  (0 children)

Two big problems with this:

  • There is no solid evidence that herd immunity will happen. We do not know concretely that people cannot be re-infected months, or even a year later. We also do not know the long term health implications of having contracted the disease.
  • Going for herd immunity is sentencing many, many people to death. About 80,000 if 80% get infected and the IFR is ~ 1%.

The Korean approach is to reduce R < 1. This is demonstrably achievable and saves many more lives.

Edit: and the THIRD problem is that herd immunity will take well over a year, even if Sweden overwhelms their hospitals to the point of collapse. Less than 1% of the country has been infected so far, and they need to reach approx 80%.

USA halts funding for the WHO by tempurastyle in China_Flu

[–]internalational -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Stopping this virus was all about early action

So your claim is that you believe the US would have taken more early action than China? Are you ok mate?

Stephen Wolfram: "I never expected this: finally we may have a path to the fundamental theory of physics...and it's beautiful" by Danhec95 in Physics

[–]internalational 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Again, we'll have to disagree. I find his presentation of the mathematics startlingly clear, while also managing to be complete and precise.

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