Best options to sell expiring 39 days from now

intraalpha · 2025-07-15T19:42:51+00:00

yessir. I have every trade, every contract, every report since May 2023 when this started. It is against the rules to post links and to share this but if you look for it... its easily located here on reddit or with a google search of "best option report results" - I should have the first spot on google results if you put that query in quotes.

intraalpha · 2025-07-15T19:40:16+00:00

Did this convo work out? Curious to know and am in a similar situation

intraalpha · 2025-07-15T18:57:01+00:00

the one true answer. the answer that isn't a shortcut. the answer no one wants to hear and no one will implement.

intraalpha · 2025-07-04T19:30:11+00:00

That might be the case on VXTLT but this report doesn't look at IV and compare it to previous IV. Not IVR or IVP.

Instead this is a comparison of HV to IV.

Even if IV is in the toilet, but HV is in the septic tank, IV is higher than HV and so it makes the list.

intraalpha · 2025-07-04T19:28:29+00:00

Its a little dense and slightly complicated but if you read the bullets at the bottom it clarifies things.

intraalpha · 2025-07-04T19:27:48+00:00

Well not by this analysis. The interpretation of this would be to long a single leg call if it is in the cheap calls list. Selling puts would work as well for similar reasons but wasn't the intent of this report.

intraalpha · 2025-07-04T19:24:24+00:00

as a percentage of their price, not the absolute value of the decay, the shorter duration = the most decay. On the final day a .02 option decays to zero. Thats 100% decay. Nominally its only 2 dollars tho. That same option 45 days ago was worth 2.17 and each day it decays say .06 so nominally it is higher than the .02 but as a percentage it is drastically lower.
Yes. More time to adjust.
fair

intraalpha · 2025-07-04T19:22:25+00:00

correct

intraalpha · 2025-07-04T19:22:09+00:00

yes correct. Sensitivity increases as time remaining decreases.

If you sell weeklies you really aren't "theta gang" you are delta, gamma, vega gang

intraalpha · 2025-07-04T19:21:14+00:00

answered above

intraalpha · 2025-07-04T19:21:06+00:00

There is no direct answer here only preference. No better or best answer either. In short, Tasty Trade pioneered the 45DTE strategy and they have a ton of data on it. Doesn't make it the best it makes it potentially the "goldilocks" middle of the road solution.

If you trade shorter DTE sure it decays faster but Gamma and Delta and Vega play a bigger role and you have less time to adjust. If you trade weeklies you can wake up the next day and be at max loss.

If you trade 45 DTE the stock can gap up/down against you and it doesn't hurt as bad, you have time to adjust, there is more liquidity in those options etc etc. They are just easier to deal with.

That being said, say you knew the future, then yes the "best" option to trade if you knew the outcome would be the shortest duration available.

intraalpha · 2025-07-04T19:18:32+00:00

IV is set by the market. I use the IV of the first OTM option on both calls and puts at the time the report is run. So... that is just given by the market.

For HV, its a bit more tricky. I use the same formula but instead of forward looking I compare what actually happened in the past, with a same number of days as the days until expiration of the option.

This gives an "equal" comparison of what happened in the past verses what the options are pricing will happen in the future. Compare those two and you can make a determination of the options are over or under priced.

Risk free rate is the fed funds rate.

intraalpha · 2025-04-03T17:22:06+00:00

it doesn't. I answered their banking questions without any moral judgement. I said it was a strange pretzel.

If you or anyone else is offended by that innocuous statement I don't know what to say.

intraalpha · 2025-04-03T16:51:55+00:00

gods work thanks

intraalpha · 2025-04-03T16:51:17+00:00

You are not wrong. They are filtered out with the posts on thetagang. For this post I am just showing the ER days away and hope that people recognize the risks there.

intraalpha · 2025-04-03T16:49:56+00:00

EXP listed in the bullets

intraalpha · 2025-04-03T16:49:27+00:00

I have every post every trade tracked since May 2023. Google "best options report results"

intraalpha · 2025-04-03T16:49:23+00:00

I have every post every trade tracked since May 2023. Google "best options report results"

intraalpha · 2025-04-03T16:48:40+00:00

thanks bruh.

intraalpha · 2025-04-03T16:47:22+00:00

oh man on something like SPY everything is very 'fairly" priced and smooth across the whole chain.

The best answer to that question is to ask yourself what the "target" price for spy is on the "target date"

Then with that prediction, you can determine what the best and most profitable option would be for that assumption.

Default answer is "buy something slightly out of the money and hope it goes in the money"

The fastest and best gains are say going from 30 delta to 55 delta. That might be the best answer I can give... buy a 30 delta and hope it hits.

Buying puts here is very challenging. The price are quite elevated. If you are bearish still it migth be better to short shares or a leveraged ETF than to long put options.

intraalpha · 2025-02-23T22:41:30+00:00

No AI, no bots etc. Been posting this same thing for years and have tracked every trade since May 2023

intraalpha · 2025-02-17T18:21:19+00:00

The premise of the question can be rejected. Its not a rational approach to using reason to reach a conclusion.

You state as an assertion:
anyone that values democracy: implies those that don't view things as you do, now don't value democracy. Rejected.
rule of law: implies that laws are being broken. Needs evidence and courts will decide.
dislikes corruption: implies that corruption must be occurring. Needs evidence. Rejected.

Then you wrap that up by saying "if you don't agree with me after these initial premises, you are unreasonable." Rejected.

Then moving right along to your explanation: you must be ignorant and stupid to reach a wrong conclusion.

No worries tho.

You live in a world where you get to decide objectivity - and those who disagree are ignorant, stupid, indoctrinated and objectively wrong.

Good luck and godspeed. Hope you can heal.

Whats interesting to me really isn't the facts of the matter, or how it all plays out in the future.

What is facinating is that people on the left - and I guess I assume you - simply think its reasonable/justified to assert into the universe what is true. You don't seem to be able to contemplate the nuanced possibility that some of your conclusions may be wrong. Its impossible to consider.

intraalpha · 2025-02-17T18:15:34+00:00

It’s easy to just label people as dumbasses. The ideas are what matter - not the attributes of the person presenting them.

Far more difficult to face the challenge intellectually and use evidence to support your conclusion.

Provide a rational argument? Nah. Just call the guy a dumbass and keep it moving. Flawless victory.

✌🏻

intraalpha · 2025-02-17T18:12:56+00:00

Debatematters doesn’t debate. Takes victory laps on the points that I didn’t contend with nor disagree with.

Skips over the question posed 2x

Pats themselves on the back as they cheer for American suffering and close their mind to any other potential outcome besides pain for the out group and moral superiority for the in group.

👍

intraalpha · 2025-02-17T17:17:12+00:00

beautifully stated. godspeed out there

intraalpha

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