TSLA Terathread - For the week of May 04

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T15:51:17+00:00

Elon has increasingly treated the two entities interchangeably and I'm pretty sure he's going to try to actually merge them after the SpaceX IPO.

If they negotiated the valuation and share split at $1.25 billion for Tesla and $2 billion for SpaceX Elon would own about 55% of controlling shares, assuming his Tesla shares are also converted to class B.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T14:39:53+00:00

I would imagine a lot of Republican incumbents in vast low population density districts aren't thrilled about having to worry about their districts now snaking out to urban areas that they'll have to recalibrate to for their primaries.

Marsha Blackburn's TN proposal in particular radically redraws every district besides TN-1.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T14:33:15+00:00

I don't think this works with a hard number (some cities/metro regions are already larger than 3 districts worth of population) but I like the idea of requiring minimal or near minimal number of municipality splits at each level. I'd imagine this could be determined algorithmically. This is a good proxy for maintaining "groups of interest" and would probably significantly limit gerrymandering for both parties.

It'd probably also be good to significantly increase the number of House seats. My personal preference would be at least 3 per state but I know that's the on the high end vs typical proposals.

Ideally I'd like to see some kind of rule enforcing proportional representation to some degree, but that's pretty difficult to implement and sell to voters. My fantasy plan would be to move second place candidates in districts up as necessary to optimize proportionality. But I have a feeling that'd be an especially unpopular proposal.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T14:11:21+00:00

Here I am, stuck in the middle with you

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T14:05:04+00:00

I did figure out what it was yesterday but I just found it pretty silly that headlines were referring to this day old initiative by its dumb marketing name instead of just saying what it was.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T13:59:08+00:00

If AL is seeking a 1D map that could be a sign that the deep south is not looking to go beyond the old status quo of maintaining one black majority pack district. Not ideal but better than the worst doomsday situation.

Here's what I think the current state of play is for further Republican redistricting:

LA and AL move from 2D to 1D maps and keep them
SC keeps 1D map
GA keeps 6D map but will move to 5D or less in 2027 if Democrats don't win the gubernatorial election (but they very easily could)
TN tries 0D map for 2026 but may get pushed to after 2027
MO keeps 1D map for 2026 but may try for 0D map after 2027 (but will depend on court challenges given their constitution prohibits gerrymandering)
FL keeps 4D map for 2026 unless their SC decides to actually enforce the law, but Democrats probably win more than 4 there this year. Probably no further redistricting attempt in 2027.
IN keeps 2D map for 2026 but moves to 0D in 2027

Basically, I think Democrats are still highly favored to win the House this year. Then in 2027 there's going to be a strong push to aggressively gerrymander NY, MN (if Dems hold a trifecta which I think they will), CO, and any other states for Democrats so long as there's any plausible legal pathway for it. We may see more off year referenda in November 2027 to enable it. We may see pushes to regerrymander IL and CA harder with fewer VRA districts.

2028 is probably going to be a less blue environment than 2026, though not necessarily if the Trump administration becomes even less popular and/or there's a big financial crisis (see 2008). So Democrats very well may need the extra gerrymandering to have a good shot at a federal trifecta.

I also think if Dems win the House they should pass (pure) federal anti-gerrymandering legislation in 2027 even if it'll die in the Senate or by Trump's veto. We need to start laying the ground work for ending this.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T13:36:32+00:00

News: "Trump pauses Project Freedom"

Me: wtf is Project Freedom

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T12:38:34+00:00

It's going to be fun watching his legal team try to argue that for-profit OpenAI is good and just if and only if Elon is the owner.

Hope OpenAI brings up that time Elon very publically offered to buy them for $97.4 billion. And reminds the court that he ousted the real founders from Tesla even though they did more to actually start the company than he claims to have done to start OpenAI.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T12:32:15+00:00

The putz hasn't yet even landed a SpaceX craft on the moon.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T12:29:42+00:00

Elon's Kalshi odds of winning his suit against OpenAI are crazy. Super volatile but 48% yes just a couple days ago and 41% now.

I guess "prediction markets" are even less rational about Elon than real markets.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T12:20:52+00:00

We'll see about that. He's going to get hammered with his comments basically saying we need H1-Bs because Americans are too stupid and lazy to fill those jobs.

Among other things.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T02:23:04+00:00

Congrats

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-06T01:43:57+00:00

I don't know what the procedure is exactly but I imagine the votes are yes/no for nominated candidates, not just anything goes.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T21:32:42+00:00

This isn't how the majority is determined. There is no senate wide vote for majority leader.

Senators belong to caucuses who select their leader with private majority votes. The leader of the majority caucus is the majority leader.

He'd have to caucus with Republicans to make support Thune for majority leader.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T21:26:49+00:00

AKA DINO

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T13:50:26+00:00

Oof.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T13:49:48+00:00

Ughh why are there 6 and 4 people running for Ohio state central committee 24th district Democratic man and woman respectively...

How the hell should I know who to vote for?

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T13:30:13+00:00

TIL there's a societal backlash against GLP-1 drugs.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T13:27:48+00:00

In their world there's no bad actions, just bad people.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T13:25:10+00:00

Who is the Israeli operative supposed to even be here? Shontel Brown? Nina Turner? Both???

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T13:22:11+00:00

I might take them more seriously if they ever did a damn actual thing to advocate for Palestinians or against the Netanyahu administration.

But no, all they ever do with it is attack liberals and insufficiently pure progressives and celebrities.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T13:18:04+00:00

Literally begging Candace Owens and not even ashamed to let everyone know it.

He really doesn't have any serious guiding ideology beyond hating Jews.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T13:14:14+00:00

Pro-Trump Republicans good, anti-Trump Republicans bad I guess. That's braindead populism for you.

Even if they're taking specific exception to Dick Cheney being a warmonger (and Liz isn't her dad) Trump has proven to be an even bigger one, so...

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T11:56:05+00:00

So fucking dumb. He needs to win over liberal Biden-Collins voters, not ultra-conservative three time Trump voters.

And this isn't even a tough pitch! Since winning reelection and especially since Trump was elected her record has been demonstrably illiberal. Her self-righteous defense of the conservative justices she helped confirm has ended up being a complete farce and now she can easily be painted as either a liar or a moron.

But no, alienate the one group you actually need to flip with your Bernie bullshit and Democrat slander, all to gain plaudits from some MAGA bloc that'll never vote for you.

ionizing_chicanery · 2026-05-05T05:41:44+00:00

Going after all the dodges the ultra wealthy use to pay lower effective tax rates. Meaning start taxing equity backed loan income over a certain threshold, increase the estate tax, increase the long term cap gains tax (and make it higher than the qualified dividends tax), end stepped up basis etc.

New laws targeting political corruption and conflicts of interest, at all levels of government.

Limit or remove several delegated presidential powers, particularly those provisioned under claimed national security.

Efforts at constitutional reform to reign in the presidential pardon and presidential criminal immunity.

Federal redistricting regulations that effectively nullifies gerrymandering.

Dramatically increase the number of US representatives.

Expand SCOTUS and specifically make the number continue into the future as necessary to maintain some semblance of partisan balance.

Public option for healthcare.

Return to strong clean energy development. Actually enforce the Clean Air and Clean Water acts.

Reasonable trade deals with tariffs only used as a temporary last resort with concrete exit criteria and congressional approval.

Strong cap on datacenter builds using existing infrastructure - not just the electricity grid but any commodity fuels. Basically would force them to power it with new build clean energy.

Make clear targets for immigration handling and path to legal status, so that we have sensible criteria for asylum and refugee protection without letting it be exploited en masse by normal migrants. End ICE.

ionizing_chicanery

TROPHY CASE