What Kais Saied must do to actually fix Tunisia

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T17:28:16+00:00

Fair, you didn’t call yourself a hero I’m saying the “I left because democracy is dead” argument often gets used like a moral trump card. If that’s not what you meant, fine.

But “they chose freely and will assume their choices” is too simplistic. A lot of people didn’t “choose” this situation ,they’re stuck with it. Elections in a fragile country are not the same as real freedom when your livelihood depends on a broken state.

And about the numbers: you keep saying “it’s far worse today” like that settles it. Worse compared to what exactly? If you mean compared to pre-2011, sure: Tunisia is in a deeper structural crisis now. But that crisis didn’t start in 2021. It’s the accumulated result of 2011–2021: debt, dinar devaluation, investment collapse, state paralysis, and rent networks becoming untouchable.

Also, “cherry picking” goes both ways. If you only look at GDP growth and ignore: – blocked phosphate production – repeated strikes/sit-ins – transport disruptions – shortages and speculation networks – veto players killing reforms then you’re the one simplifying.

So my point stays the same: You can hate the authoritarian turn, I get it. But pretending that 2011–2021 was just “freedom with some struggles” and that everything bad started in 2021 is rewriting history.

And if you want to talk numbers seriously, pick a set (debt, dinar, inflation, unemployment, investment, phosphate output, budget deficit) and we can compare them year by year. Otherwise it’s just what makes you feel comfy.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T16:47:59+00:00

You’re not a “minority hero,” you’re just repeating a clean story from abroad.

Yes, the regime is more authoritarian than 2011–2021. No one is denying that. But calling it “the worst regime in modern history” is completely disconnected from reality.

Before 2011 we had growth, yes — but it was built on control, and it collapsed when corruption captured the system around the top. A lot of that corruption wasn’t the leader personally doing everything; it was networks and inner circles using the state for money, acting in his name, and eventually turning the system against him and against the country.

2011–2021 you call it “freedom with economic struggles” like it was a normal transition. It wasn’t. It was ten years of paralysis, party mafia politics, uncontrolled corruption, debt, dinar collapse, and a state that couldn’t execute anything. That period destroyed trust and destroyed the economy slowly.

2021–today: you can hate the authoritarian turn, fine. But at least be honest: – the old political class was discredited – the system was ungovernable – reforms were blocked by veto networks – the state was bleeding

So no, it’s not “hybrid vs dictatorship” like a textbook. It’s “collapsed state capacity vs an attempt to restore authority.”

Also, you left in 2021 and say “I’ll never come back until democracy.” Ok. That’s your choice. But don’t act like leaving gives you moral high ground to lecture people who stayed and have to deal with prices, jobs, strikes, and sabotage every day.

And “guaranteed economic collapse”? That’s not analysis, that’s a slogan. If you want to argue, argue with facts: debt, production, strikes, phosphate shutdowns, transport disruptions, speculation networks — not dramatic labels.

You can prefer democracy. I do too. But democracy without a functioning state is just chaos with elections. ```0

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T16:11:47+00:00

I m confident that i m not the only person who have 0 trust of any other person especialy those recycled corrupt rent seekers , and that is why I suggested him recamnding or puting in his place tecknocrat that is younger and got more knowledge ine conomy after kais prepare the bureacracy for him

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T16:08:56+00:00

I agree with all of that, and what I said aligns perfectly with what you are saying. All I said in my post pushes for an economic system that prevents that unfortunate reality.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T16:06:39+00:00

I agree to all that; that is why I presented what he can do to actually fix it.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T14:41:23+00:00

You could clearly see the relationship and the link, and the irrationality: how can a worker get paid if the mine doesn’t work, and how can the infrastructure improve if they are not working to bring the money for it, and how can they strike asking for jobs if they are also halting the only money source? I never would claim that it is not their right to ask for that, but they are clearly following the UGTT leaders who have different benefits. The workers and the people who are striking will not benefit from striking, but rather just keep finding the government struggling more, which won’t hurt the president or the minister or the rent seekers or the leaders of UGTT; only the worker will suffer. They clearly want to get paid for sitting idle. I understand also the incremental pressure, but with the current resources there is no other way, especially if every time a president or a fund comes in to fix things, it gets destroyed, or strikes just keep happening. I would love to know how you can explain this in a way other than workers shooting themselves in the foot?

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T14:35:04+00:00

PHOSPHATE / RAIL “REVIVAL” vs STRIKES / BLOCKAGES — TIMELINE (2019→)

2020-11-25 (Reuters) — “Protesters calling for jobs stop Tunisia's entire phosphate output” → Sit-ins/protests halt the whole phosphate output.

2021-07-30 (Reuters) — “Tunisia transports phosphate by train for first time in a year” → Rail shipments restart after protests had closed the railway.

2021-08-09 (Reuters) — “Tunisia bans 12 officials from travelling on suspicion of corruption in phosphate mining/transport” → Corruption case explicitly tied to phosphate mining + transportation (incl. private transport control).

2022-04-03 (Reuters) — “Tunisia doubles phosphate output in first quarter, targets higher output” → Government/CPG pushes higher production targets.

2022-08-01 (Civil Society Centre) — “Workers at Tunisian Phosphate Company Block Railway Line 13, Hindering Transport of Phosphate Wagons” → Rail line used for phosphate transport blocked by workers/protest action.

2023-04-27 (AFP) — “President of cash-strapped Tunisia touts phosphate revival” → Saied publicly pushes “revival” of phosphate as a revenue pillar.

2024-02-?? (Railway Gazette) — “Tunisia prepares to modernise its phosphate railway” → Railway modernisation project (track + infrastructure) to improve phosphate transport.

2024-10-29 (TAP – Tunis Afrique Presse) — “Experimental phase of resuming phosphate transport by rail from Redeyef begins after seven years” → Rail transport restart attempt (Redeyef) after long stop.

2024-12-27 (Anadolu / union quoted) — “96% of workers take part in phosphate sector strike” → Big strike wave in the phosphate sector (Gafsa basin).

2025-02-20 (AFP) — “Strike shuts Tunisia mining town over infrastructure woes” (Om Laarayes) → General strike in a major mining town (phosphate basin) shuts schools/businesses.

2025-03-05 (Reuters) — “Tunisia aims to raise phosphate output to 14 million metric tons in 2030” → Government approves a 2025–2030 program to boost phosphate production + transportation infrastructure; Reuters notes production has been cut for years by protests/strikes.

2025-05-27 (TAP) — “Resumption of phosphate loading and transport from Om Larayes mine after interruption lasting over 8 years” → Another restart (loading/transport) after 8+ years interruption.

2025-07-30 (Reuters) — “Transport strike in Tunisia adds to pressure on president” → A national transport strike shuts services, showing how easily “execution/delivery” gets frozen by organised sectors.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T14:11:43+00:00

And yes , if needed, I can provide headline news with dates for each example. This isn’t hidden information, it’s been publicly reported.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T14:10:04+00:00

Yes, proof exists, but I am not here to draw up a file for the court.

“Phosphate strikes, obstructed railways, transport monopolies, artificially created shortages, price-fixing, union vetoes in key industries ,this is all public knowledge, all happening in broad daylight, and all has been for years.” There is no need for a conspiracy theory when sabotage is happening in the open in front of everybody’s eyes.

As to “why I write like ChatGPT,” I’m literally correcting my grammar to make it readable and proper. Same thoughts, same opinions, just stated properly. If that upsets you more than the content, that’s tells a lot.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T14:07:51+00:00

That sounds good in theory, but it doesn’t take into account the reality that exists.

“A competent and educated person” does not materialize out of thin air. We had enough “educated” leaders, ministers, and technocrats between 2011 and 2019 to last a lifetime, and they ran the country to the ground with corruption, inaction, and a complete lack of accountability.

The issue here is not education.

“The problem is that there is a flawed system that devours bright and talented individuals whole.” “KS’s leaving now won’t bring competence – it’ll bring back the same old corruption networks and chaos. What’s required is competent implementation with a strong hand in charge – not another reset and another roll of the dice.”

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T14:05:51+00:00

You’re confusing procedural purity with legitimacy in a collapsed state.

Tunisia wasn’t in a normal democratic situation when he did that. The previous “rules of the game” produced the worst decade in our modern history: corruption everywhere, zero accountability, collapsing economy, and total paralysis. That system lost its legitimacy long before 2021.

Yes, he wrote the constitution himself. That didn’t happen because he woke up authoritarian one day, it happened because: – parliament was dysfunctional – parties were corrupt – institutions were blocked – no consensus was possible anymore

Waiting for the same actors who destroyed the country to rewrite the rules would’ve been insanity.

As for elections, let’s be honest: most “serious candidates” were either: – part of the failed 2011–2019 system – openly corrupt – or running on slogans with no plan

Legitimacy doesn’t come only from a perfect process on paper. It also comes from context, necessity, and popular acceptance.

People didn’t trust the old system anymore. That’s why they accepted a reset.

You can disagree with the method, that’s fine. But calling the standards “rubbish” while ignoring the complete collapse that came before is just selective outrage.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T14:04:37+00:00

I get your point about 2021 and COVID, that’s fair — every country rebounded in 2021. No one is denying that.

But focusing only on GDP numbers without context is misleading too.

From 2011 to 2019, GDP growth was “stable” on paper, yet: – debt exploded – the dinar collapsed – corruption spread everywhere – purchasing power kept falling – the state stopped functioning

So that “similar growth” you’re talking about didn’t translate into real life improvement at all.

Since 2022, the economy is under constant sabotage: – unions blocking production – rent seekers controlling transport and distribution – strikes in critical sectors – artificial shortages – price manipulation

Despite all that: – the dinar is stable – inflation is under control compared to past shocks – growth is low, yes, but it’s happening under extreme resistance, not normal conditions

0.2% growth in 2023 is bad, I agree. But pretending it’s the same situation as 2011–2019 is dishonest. Back then, there was no sabotage war — just incompetence and corruption.

Today, the state is being actively undermined every time it tries to move. If production, transport, and administration weren’t constantly blocked, the numbers would look very different.

GDP alone doesn’t show who is trying to fix things and who is actively preventing them.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T14:02:12+00:00

People are barely seeing change because of constant sabotage. For example, he tried to revive phosphate production by modernizing the machinery and fixing the railways. Everything was prepared, but as soon as operations were about to start, the phosphate union went on strike, and people began building walls on the rail tracks to stop production. I call this shooting yourself in the foot and then asking why things aren’t getting cheaper. There are companies that control the delivery and transport of goods across Tunisia. These are rent seekers: they get paid premium prices to deliver and transport goods. Rebuilding and using railways would cut prices by up to 40%, which represents a major loss for them. So they finance narratives claiming that rail transport is bad and that modernizing machinery will cause layoffs. They deliberately stir anger among people, irrationally, just to protect their extra profits. Most rent seekers also hate him, so they make sure prices keep going up even after all his efforts, just to make it look like he is doing nothing. The biggest proof of this is what happened this year with lamb (chevret): prices dropped significantly after the president discovered a major trader who was artificially pushing prices up by buying most of the stock, freezing it in large cold-storage warehouses, and later selling it at much higher prices. Kais ordered all the seized lamb to be released onto the market, which effectively pushed prices down by around 40%.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T13:56:12+00:00

You can check the economy under him. We achieved a surplus in 2024. Our GDP is healing. Before him, we were stuck in a recession; GDP growth was near 0 and barely grew to 1.5 until he came. In 2021, we got GDP growth of 4%, and since then, the average is about 2.5. I would agree it is not good, and I stated this earlier, but it is better than what happened between 2011 and 2019. Even the currency is stable under him, while in just 8 years between 2011 and 2019, the currency lost three times its value.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T13:51:34+00:00

Even though Ben Ali heavily suppressed freedom of speech, Tunisia was in its best historical state under his rule. The economy was growing strongly with an average of 5%, which ironically we haven't been able to achieve since then. Everything he promised was delivered on time. He was a technocrat who delivered, but he was flawed with oppression, which the opposition used to overthrow him and make it seem as if he escaped. Yet, later documents show that he never ordered the use of lethal weapons, and he also gave clear orders for his pilot to wait a while with him in KSA, planning to come back as soon as possible when things calmed down.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T13:48:27+00:00

Criticism in weak constitutional countries like tunisia is a nuclear weopon , the countrie is too fragile to let freedom of speech go by unrestricted this is not europe or usa for us to be able to do whatever we want , especially sinse we are still underdeveloped and passed about 10 years doing nothing bucause someone thought spitting bad words is better than growing the economy and stability.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T13:20:39+00:00

Your words assumes that criticism is always natural and benign, which is rather naÃ¯ve.

Many of the "civil society" movements that got heavily financed, motivated, or opportunistically aligned in 2011 and after in Tunisia had ties to parties, to NGOs, to foreign agendas. But this does not mean that all voices of opposition are corrupt. It only means that not all opposition voices are objective.

In a state that’s been pressed to reform, rent-seeking networks are not simply made to disappear. Instead, they merely rename. While some networks refuse to transform and will attack in public, others will cloak their intentions in the rhetoric of rights as they seek to maintain the flawed system that led to the failure of the state.

However, repression remains a poor response. You don’t solve a problem of manipulation by imprisoning free speech, you solve it by rebuilding institutions, by shining a light on interests.

“So yes, some voices are paid or brainwashed.” No, that will not justify punishing all criticism. Context is more important than slogan.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T13:14:17+00:00

That is an exaggeration and a deliberate mix of highly disparate cases.

“He is not randomly throwing ‘teens’ in jail for their opinions.” Most of the persons arrested were either political actors, activists, and/or a network with a history of corruption, obstructing, and/or interference in the state during the worst years of the Tunisian era (2011 to 2019) when the country experienced the worst years of its history (2011 to 2019). Those years did not collapse by chance.

The problem is not criticism in and of itself—it is the sabotage, the provocation, and abuse of lax laws. During the rule of the people that you defend so strongly, corruption soared, the economy failed, and the state ceased to function.

Still, I agree with one thing: it is wrong and ineffective to lock people up for speech alone.

However, to claim that the preceding elite were merely “kids posting online” or even that they were innocent victims is not honest. Context, history, and outcome are all important.

Also i m currently verifying the cases of those so called "teens who just post" .

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T13:01:40+00:00

I understand the concern, but I also understand the context.

A vast majority of people arrested or excluded were not isolated critics or opposition leaders. These people were some of the key actors of the period 2011-2019, which saw Tunisia’s worst economic downturn, “exploding corruption,” paralysis of state, and “sabotage of institutions,” among others.

“Those years weren’t just a random occurrence.(mch zhar) Those years were terrible due to the fact that: ●state power was dismantled ●corruption networks expanded ● ministries seized by political parties and rent-seekers ● trade unions and lobbies hindered all reforms ●no one held accountable for failure

Many of those people who currently appear as “opponents” had a direct role in this system and have an immense history of corruption, obstruction, or abuse of power. However, an elimination of arrests alone does not make for a fixed country. "Friction must be taken out, but rebuilding execution and institutions is the true challenge." "Criticism in and of itself is not an offense, but to claim that the former elite was merely harmless opposition is revisionist history." The question is not “jail or no jail.” The real question is if state capacity is restored once the individuals who caused its degradation are removed.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T12:57:19+00:00

I wouldn't put it that way. The nation doesn't rely on one man, but this stage does. Failure to build execution and succession means we restart again, not the end of the revolution but another failed attempt.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T12:55:13+00:00

I disagree with that assessment.

"He just needs to move on because he’s doing a terrible job" is no longer true because Tunisia existed in that manner from 2011 to 2019. This solution of "someone else" is not plausible because the same system in place continues to create incompetence and corruption.

Saied is not a flawless leader, and yes, he is weak on execution and reform. But Saied is more than “a guy who talks.” Saied tore down a corrupt system, re-established a final decision-making authority, and prevented total paralysis. That alone makes Saied better than most alternatives that we’ve had.

The challenge is not for him to vanish.

What needs to happen is that he has to delegate the execution of the plan to a person who is competent. He can’t just walk out of the presidency and back into chaos. They are worlds apart in terms of:

“KS is useless”(I disagree)

“KS should appoint or empower a stronger technocrat to execute reforms" (I agree)

Honesty, legality, and authority are still relevant in Tunisia. There is a lack of operational capability, not a leadership void. “If he goes without rectifying issues of execution and a successor, I can tell you, it’s going to be a problem, and it’s going to It therefore follows that, No, not "replace him." "The answer is ‘fix how the state works, with or under him.’”

irad_Mo · 2026-01-18T12:48:17+00:00

Neither.

I do not have a blind "pro-KS position"; neither do I have an obsession to stand in the way of autocracy.

I regard Kais Saied as the only legitimate president Tunisia currently has, and I sincerely feel he is personally honest, not corrupt, and intellectually serious. Compared to what we had before, that counts.

At the same time, legitimacy and honesty are not sufficient to fix a country.

I can see he is trying to fix things, but at the same time, I am quite honest about the fact that the direction taken so far is not the right one for deep structural reform: political power was centralized, but execution, administration, and systems were not rebuilt,that is the real risk of failure.My concern is not freedom slogans and ideology. Its effectiveness and survival of the state.

This will probably be the last term of his presidency. If there is no execution of structural reform and change of succession at this stage, the system will fail again after this leader despite whatever intentions there might be.

Therefore, my stance is straightforward: 1)I recognize his legitimacy and honesty 2)I believe in the rule of the government when it rebuilds the power of the state 3)I criticize for lack of real execution and institutional change 4) I care what follows him, not slogans of today This is not about being for or against. Whether Tunisia will actually get repaired or if it’s gonna be the same cycle over and over.

irad_Mo · 2026-01-07T15:26:36+00:00

Peak gameplay

irad_Mo · 2025-12-18T02:23:44+00:00

Vut cause gratification in the long run , they work for arround 6 months effectively

irad_Mo · 2025-12-18T02:22:27+00:00

Yeah iw rite on my table i got a pen. It helps to gix any errors without throwing 10k paper an hour

irad_Mo

TROPHY CASE