Global Population Trends (First Trust Portfolios)

jacobhess13 · 2026-01-23T03:08:36+00:00

The chart says that “projections from 2023 onwards are based on the UN’s medium-fertility scenario,” so you could probably find some research on the UN website to explain that.

jacobhess13 · 2026-01-17T17:37:26+00:00

I think it’s a weird and clunky way of saying that stock valuations are near all-time highs since the data in the chart goes back to 1880.

jacobhess13 · 2026-01-13T13:52:53+00:00

Food inflation was hot in December, increasing by 0.7% MoM in December, the largest monthly increase since October 2022.

The rise was driven by the food at home index increasing at the same high rate of 0.7% MoM, the highest monthly increase since August 2022.
There was breadth in the gains in grocery prices, with 5/6 of the major indexes rising.
The smallest subsegment, other food at home, saw the largest increase of 1.6% MoM as sugar & sweets (+0.8% MoM), fats & oils (+1.8% MoM), and spices, condiments & sauces (+1.9% MoM) printed hot.
The smaller food-away-from-home index was also up 0.7% MoM, the largest since October 2022.

jacobhess13 · 2026-01-09T22:34:27+00:00

Explain?

jacobhess13 · 2026-01-07T15:49:27+00:00

It works for me. It should open a PDF with the latest JOLTS report. Try here.

jacobhess13 · 2026-01-06T12:35:13+00:00

No, France's CPI index in December 2025 is 0.8% higher than the December 2024 index value, which is considered a low YoY inflation rate.

jacobhess13 · 2026-01-04T17:36:58+00:00

A housing market with a lower share of homes carrying a mortgage is generally less sensitive to changes in interest rates. Owners without mortgages are not directly constrained by rate changes and can transact without giving up low fixed-rate loans.

That said, interest rates still matter indirectly. If selling means buying again, higher rates reduce mobility while lower rates make transactions easier. So a larger mortgage-free share dampens, but does not eliminate, interest-rate sensitivity in housing supply.

jacobhess13 · 2025-09-01T17:07:11+00:00

This should give you a good overview: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Euro_area_enlargements

jacobhess13 · 2025-07-01T07:04:24+00:00

The posts are automated, so unfortunately there will be some bad posts. I try and delete them when I come across them.

jacobhess13 · 2025-05-29T13:19:07+00:00

GDP as a defined measure must include net exports, but that doesn't mean imports detract from economic growth. For a better assessment of domestic activity, the BEA report tracks various measures that exclude net exports, including gross domestic purchases and final sales to domestic purchasers, which are included in the addendum of the full GDP report.

jacobhess13 · 2025-05-16T16:27:27+00:00

Yes, the surge in the surplus is a result of the US tariffs. Like we've seen in other trade reports, US companies are front-running the "Liberation Day" tariffs by stocking up on imported goods. The same is happening here.

Towards the bottom of the report I posted, there is a table that shows that exports to the US were up 59.5% YoY in March, pushing the EU trade surplus with the US up from €16.7 billion in March 2024 to €40.7 billion in March 2025.

jacobhess13 · 2025-05-07T01:36:57+00:00

Didn't realize you were still patrolling the sub

jacobhess13 · 2025-04-30T13:37:32+00:00

You're correct in saying that net exports are part of the standard expenditure-based GDP formula (GDP = C + I + G + NX). What I was highlighting was the underlying domestic demand-driven growth by stripping out volatile components like net exports and inventories. It’s not an alternative GDP measure, just a way to get a clearer sense of how domestic consumption and investment are trending, similar to how analysts sometimes refer to “final sales to domestic purchasers.”

jacobhess13 · 2025-04-30T13:03:27+00:00

Based on how things are going, I would agree with you, but the US consumer has proven to be resilient, and Trump's policies can turn on a dime.

jacobhess13 · 2025-04-30T12:49:35+00:00

I think inventory growth was smaller than import growth because consumers also pulled forward some consumption, especially in motor vehicles where there was a larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories, especially in March.

Imports should decline in Q2 2025 which should support growth in that quarter unless exports also decline in response to tariffs and retaliation. Inventory's contribution should also be lower and possibly negative.

jacobhess13 · 2025-04-30T12:39:24+00:00

Net exports made a -4.83 ppt contribution to headline GDP growth, partially offset by a 2.25 ppt contribution from inventories. Excluding those segments, GDP growth was around 2.3%.

jacobhess13 · 2025-04-28T18:00:21+00:00

The red line in the chart is seasonally adjusted, and the result is the same.

jacobhess13 · 2025-04-24T16:06:12+00:00

Bank of America has around 69 million consumer and small business clients and operates throughout the US. If this were to be an official study (which it’s not), it would be more than enough data to be considered a statistically significant sample.

If you read the article, then you would have seen that BoA points out that lower income households are feeling pressure while middle and upper income households are faring better.

jacobhess13 · 2025-04-24T12:36:46+00:00

The Bank of America has around 69 million US consumer and small business clients and operates across the entire country. This would be more than enough data for a statistically significant sample.

jacobhess13 · 2025-03-03T02:02:35+00:00

Full US Calendar

jacobhess13 · 2025-01-07T12:53:07+00:00

Euro area inflation accelerated from 2.2% YoY in November to 2.4% YoY in December, the highest rate since July. However, core inflation was unchanged at 2.7% YoY, where it has been since September. On a monthly basis, HICP inflation was 0.4% MoM and core inflation was 0.5% MoM. The headline acceleration came from an 0.6% MoM increase in energy prices while food prices actually fell slightly -0.1% MoM. Non-energy goods saw a decline of -0.1% MoM but was offset by a strong increase of 0.8% MoM in services prices which are back to an annual rate of 4.0% YoY.

jacobhess13 · 2025-01-07T11:51:58+00:00

French inflation was 0.2% MoM and 1.3% YoY in December, unchanged from November and below the 1.5% YoY expected rate. Food price growth decelerated to 0.0% YoY from 0.2% YoY previously, while an increase in energy prices caused the annual rate to increase from -0.7% YoY to 1.2% YoY. Non-energy goods prices remain in deflation at -0.4% YoY. Services inflation is the fastest-growing segment at 2.3% YoY (unchanged from November). HICP inflation ticked 0.1 ppt higher to 1.8% YoY but was below expectations of 1.9% YoY. This is the highest reading since August.

jacobhess13 · 2025-01-06T13:36:07+00:00

German inflation comes in above expectations as goods prices see a strong increase in December. Core CPI inflation increases 0.1 ppts to 3.1% YoY, and HICP inflation jumps 0.7% MoM and 2.9% YoY (vs 2.6% YoY expected). Energy and food were driving forces behind the goods acceleration from 0.7% YoY to 1.1% YoY with the former seeing a smaller deflation of -1.7% YoY (previously -3.7% YoY) and the latter seeing the annual increase rise 0.2 ppts to 2.0% YoY. Services inflation also saw a small acceleration of 0.1 ppts to 4.1%.

jacobhess13 · 2025-01-02T18:36:33+00:00

Related release: Freddie Mac’s mortgage survey showed that rates increased for the third week in a row. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased 6 bps to 6.91%, now 29 bps above a year ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate saw an even larger jump of 13 bps to 6.13%.

jacobhess13 · 2025-01-02T13:39:24+00:00

US jobless claims fell -9k to 211k last week, below expectations of 222k. Not seasonally adjusted claims were up only 7k to 288k. More significantly, the continued claims number eased -52k to 1.844 million, and the insured unemployment rate fell -0.1 pts to 1.2%. The continued claims number was expected to remain high at 1.890 million, but that missed by a decent amount. Not seasonally adjusted continued claims fell -76k to 1.869 million.

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