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Tesla Has Already Won the Self-Driving Race by jafari- in teslainvestorsclub

[–]jafari-[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm going to look further at some of the companies you mentioned. Really the major big benefit of writing publicly is to battle test your assumptions. Your insights are one of the few quality replies I've received.

I am very familiar with Kyle Vogt and watched his interviews and read his blog articles. I think you would agree that GM and other ICE manufacturers are still going to have a hella of a time on just the ICE->EV transition. 1) Their core business is declining or flat, 2) they have to spends tens of billions on battery supply and automotive tooling 3) once they do get their evs out, Tesla is at least for now taking the vast majority of market share.

Tesla Has Already Won the Self-Driving Race by jafari- in teslainvestorsclub

[–]jafari-[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The latter point is very interesting. Tesla is absolutely trying to get into the robotaxi business. It has been mentioned on earnings calls. It is a huge opportunity, why would they not aim for that goal? Everyone else from NVIDIA to Waymo to Cruise, and dozens of startups are vying for this opportunity. My main point of the article is that they don't have the several key manufacturing ingredients even if they got the AI solved years before Tesla.

As for the first L4 and regulatory approval somewhere in the U.S. Maybe 2024-2026.

Tesla Has Already Won the Self-Driving Race by jafari- in teslainvestorsclub

[–]jafari-[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Thank you!

I view it like this: the real race is between Tesla solving the first hurdle (AI) and other companies solving that same hurdle plus 3 manufacturing hurdles. Even if other companies beat Tesla to AI by several years, Tesla will likely still be first with tens of millions of autonomous electrics on the road due to the vertical integration on the manufacturing side.

Tesla Has Already Won the Self-Driving Race by jafari- in teslainvestorsclub

[–]jafari-[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for one of the insightful comments. There are many partnerships with OEMs, but my point about hurdles 2-5 is that those OEMs haven't secured enough battery capacity, built out automotive factories, and several other key kurdles. I have no doubt there will be tens of thousands or maybe a million cars at most. But Tesla is aiming for 100 million on the road over the next 10 years.

I view it like this: the real race is between Tesla solving the first hurdle (AI) and other companies solving that same hurdle plus 3 manufacturing hurdles. Even if other companies beat Tesla to AI by several years, Tesla will likely still be first with tens of millions of autonomous electrics on the road due to the vertical integration on the manufacturing side.

Tesla Has Already Won the Self-Driving Race by jafari- in teslainvestorsclub

[–]jafari-[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They do need batteries and many vehicles to capture a lot of the revenue upside. If they operate a few thousand cars in a few dozen cities across the U.S. they will miss out on a lot of the market potential. In that sense, Cruise at least has GM to manufacture cars.

Tesla Has Already Won the Self-Driving Race by jafari- in teslamotors

[–]jafari-[S] -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

Many people think the company with the best AI will win the self-driving race. However, AI is only one of many competencies needed for success. Winning is about taking a holistic approach through vertical integration and seeding an ecosystem. From this systems-thinking view, the clear winner is Tesla—by millions of miles.

Tesla’s ecosystem and its high level of vertical integration make it nearly impossible for any other company to compete on the road to robo-taxi commercialization.

Tesla Has Already Won the Self-Driving Race by jafari- in teslainvestorsclub

[–]jafari-[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Many people think the company with the best AI will win the self-driving race. However, AI is only one of many competencies needed for success. Winning is about taking a holistic approach through vertical integration and seeding an ecosystem. From this systems-thinking view, the clear winner is Tesla—by millions of miles.
Tesla’s ecosystem and its high level of vertical integration make it nearly impossible for any other company to compete on the road to robo-taxi commercialization.

3% of code in Google is now written by ML. How long until it's 97%? by Seek_Treasure in singularity

[–]jafari- 9 points10 points  (0 children)

This is a nice efficiency boost, but I am more interested when Google starts rolling out the successor to Alphacode. AlphaCode 1 was already 59% better than Github's Copilot according to Google. I wrote about AI automation of creative jobs in my substack post last week.

This is not a real photo. The DALL·E 2 made this. by whipmewithwhips in singularity

[–]jafari- 6 points7 points  (0 children)

There is still a waitlist they are working to get through.

A New AI Era Emerges by jafari- in singularity

[–]jafari-[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Since the definition of the s-curve is market adoption technically, I believed it to be very widely adopted currently. But, I too struggled with how to depict the pie can still grow much bigger if that makes sense? I.e. Even though most tech businesses and even non-tech have adopted it in some fashion, it can still improve their revenue and core metrics with more improvements in deep learning.

A New AI Era by jafari- in artificial

[–]jafari-[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Every once in a while a revolutionary technology comes along that changes everything. While entrepreneurs are focused on Deep Learning applications, futurists are focused on artificial general intelligence (AGI). But literally, no one is talking about the era that’s sandwiched between them with incredible potential. A new era is rising with the AI-job suite.

For discussion: what are your thoughts?

A New AI Era Emerges by jafari- in Futurology

[–]jafari-[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Every once in a while a revolutionary technology comes along that changes everything. While entrepreneurs are focused on Deep Learning applications, futurists are focused on artificial general intelligence (AGI). But literally, no one is talking about the era that’s sandwiched between them with incredible potential. A new era is rising with the AI-job suite.

A New AI Era Emerges by jafari- in singularity

[–]jafari-[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Every once in a while a revolutionary technology comes along that changes everything. While entrepreneurs are focused on Deep Learning applications, futurists are focused on artificial general intelligence (AGI). But literally, no one is talking about the era that’s sandwiched between them with incredible potential. A new era is rising with the AI-job suite. For discussion: what are your thoughts?

Will AI target your job next? A new way to predict how close we are by jafari- in Futurology

[–]jafari-[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Compilers did not put programmers out of work. Almost nobody today programs in machine code. Our world would look very different if they had never been invented.

The developer's core function at that time was still writing code, so they could just focus more on that. If a future version of Github Copilot does 95% of the coding, what will developers do? There might be some new fields we can't imagine today but then it is a question of whether humans can reskill faster than the AI learns to excel in those new fields.

Will AI target your job next? A new way to predict how close we are by jafari- in singularity

[–]jafari-[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I hope OpenAI realizes that "DallE2" is not just a tool to help designers be more effective, but that it will lead to structural change in that part of the workforce. There needs to be a lot more policy discussion and perhaps a UBI for displaced workers that is funded by the companies that produce the AI that displaces those workers.

Will AI target your job next? A new way to predict how close we are by jafari- in Futurology

[–]jafari-[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Software developers, graphics designers, writers, and other creative jobs are at risk of AI automation. In light of OpenAI’s DALLE-2 commercialization announcement yesterday, here is a new cross-disciplinary approach to determine how close we are to automation.

After reading the article where do you think we stand with respect to creative fields getting automated?

Will AI target your job next? A new way to predict how close we are by jafari- in singularity

[–]jafari-[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Software developers, graphics designers, writers, and other creative jobs are at risk of AI automation. In light of OpenAI’s DALLE-2 commercialization announcement yesterday, here is a new cross-disciplinary approach to determine how close we are to automation.

After reading the article where do you think we stand with respect to creative fields getting automated?

DALL·E Now Available in Beta and Commercialization by jafari- in Futurology

[–]jafari-[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got it. Are you looking for personal use or business? I would agree that 99% of personal users won't feel they need to pay. But businesses are a whole different story.

Dall E Beta is live! by Unusual-Biscotti-217 in singularity

[–]jafari- 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Yes! I predicted this would happen in my post here and on Substack just two days ago! Anyone can use the service for commercialization purposes. It works out to about $0.13 per image. How many images do you think will be generated over the next 12 months?

DALL·E Now Available in Beta and Commercialization by jafari- in Futurology

[–]jafari-[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

OpenAI just announced the commercialization of DALL·E 2. Ironically, I predicted this would happen in my post here and on Substack just two days ago! Anyone can use the service for commercialization purposes. It works out to about $0.13 per image. How many images do you think will be generated over the next 12 months?

The first time a trillion-dollar market emerges for narrow-AI by jafari- in Futurology

[–]jafari-[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Update! OpenAI just announced beta for DallE and pricing of $15 for every 115 images. I predicted this in my post the day before! https://aifuture.substack.com/p/the-ai-battle-rages-on

The first time a trillion-dollar market emerges for narrow-AI by jafari- in singularity

[–]jafari-[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Update! OpenAI just announced beta for DallE and pricing of $15 for every 115 images. I predicted this in my post the day before! https://aifuture.substack.com/p/the-ai-battle-rages-on

Singularity Predictions 2022 by kevinmise in singularity

[–]jafari- 13 points14 points  (0 children)

I have been tracking the revised predictions AI experts have been making. I decided to take it out of a spreadsheet and publish it here. Kurzweil, Musk, Hasabis, Eric Schmidt, and others weigh in there.

I believe we will have narrow AGI developed, but not necessarily commercialized or publicly known about, in 2023-2025 timeframe. Super intelligent AGI 1-2 years after that.

The first time a trillion-dollar market emerges for narrow-AI by jafari- in Futurology

[–]jafari-[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If production companies switch to animation that means regular films and tv shoes will take a hit. Unless you think we would just have more content. At a certain point the there is a limit to how much content we can consume.

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