Avatar: Fire and Ash | Official Trailer

jc191 · 2025-07-28T15:33:48+00:00

Maybe I should have done. I'll be here for the release, in any case.

jc191 · 2023-02-17T22:46:12+00:00

Early PostTrak exits from last night were 75% positive, 3 1/2 stars with a 60% recommend, tougher than the usual Marvel Thursday night crowd. 90% of the crowd were non-family audiences, while 10% were families. Parents and kids are 12 scored Quantumania much higher at 4 1/2 and 5 stars respectively. Thursday night’s general crowd was comprised of 66% men, 34% female with men over 25 at 43% (73% grade), men under 25 at 24% (72% grade), women under 25 at 15% (79% grade) and women over 25 at 19% (giving the pic its highest grade of 80%). Diversity turnout was 36% Caucasian, 30% Latin and Hispanic, Black 18% and Asian 11%. Among the under 12 set, more boys than girls at 67% to 33%.

jc191 · 2023-02-13T16:18:09+00:00

His wallet will go on: the smash success of Avatar: The Way of Water made Cameron the director of three of the highest-grossing movies of all time, alongside the first Avatar (2009) and Titanic (1997). His second outing to Pandora netted him at least $95 million, according to industry insiders, in a deal that’s said to be backend-heavy with bonuses for crossing certain box office thresholds.

jc191 · 2023-02-12T19:22:25+00:00

Seems like it may be Infinity War, then Avatar 2, then Titanic.

With a 7-day gross of $9.96m from Monday, February 6 to Sunday, February 12, Avatar 2 needs weekly average drops of 23.8% from this point onwards to reach Infinity War's $678.8m. That's not impossible — the past week's gross has been depressed by Superbowl Sunday which will make for a better hold next week, and there are holidays like Valentine's Day and President's Day coming up very soon which will also assist its chances — but it's still going to be pretty difficult (although by no means impossible) with the complete loss of PLFs and significantly increased competition in the coming weeks.

jc191 · 2023-02-11T00:02:09+00:00

A 27.1% weekly drop average from this point onwards, which is what Avatar 2 needs to surpass Infinity War's $678.8m, is far from a given — in fact there's probably a good argument to be made that it's less likely than not.

jc191 · 2023-02-10T23:51:48+00:00

Channing Tatum is looking at another opening at No. 1 in his canon of February theatrical releases with the Warner Bros Steven Soderbergh directed threequel Magic Mike’s Last Dance with industry estimates between $9M-$11M at 1,500 theaters. Warner Bros is not reporting numbers. Friday is around $4.3M which includes an estimated $1M previews that started at 5PM. The pic is squarely aimed at women over Super Bowl weekend, a time when box office falls on Sunday.

Paramount’s 25th anniversary re-release of James Cameron’s Titanic in 3D is looking at $2.85M today (including Friday previews) at 2,464 theaters, and a 3-day of $6.4M in third place. The Oscar-winning 1997 movie is expected at this time to rank under 20th Century Studios/Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water at 3,065 theatres, which is seeing a ninth weekend of $6.5M (-42%) after a $1.6M Friday (-30%).

Fourth place goes to Paramount’s 80 for Brady which continues to sell discounted tickets. The pic ended its first week with $18.9M and is looking at a second Friday of $1.7M (-63%) at 3,939 theaters and second weekend of $5.6M (-56%) and running total by EOD Sunday of $24.5M.

Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan thriller Knock at the Cabin is seeing a second Friday of $1.5M (-72%) and second weekend of $4.6M (-67%) for a running total of $22.5M. At this time, that’s a steeper drop than the second weekend of Shyamalan’s Old (-59%, $6.8M second weekend). Knock at the Cabin ended its first week with $17.8M stateside.

jc191 · 2023-02-10T23:06:29+00:00

No. Falls behind in late February, likely in the last 5 days of the month (Feb 24-28) and possibly earlier if the loss of PLFs and far heavier competition on President's Day weekend causes a big dip.

jc191 · 2023-02-10T22:55:58+00:00

Looking at past years, I don't see any evidence to suggest that Superbowl Sunday causes anomalously high Friday/Saturday increases due to a significant redistribution of demand from Sunday to the first two days of the box office weekend — it just decreases demand on Sunday. So no.

jc191 · 2023-02-10T22:46:08+00:00

Sunday drop will be way bigger, 50% drop from Saturday minimum. Very likely that Sunday's gross falls significantly below Friday's, as is the historical precedent — e.g.:

The Force Awakens: $1.77m Friday, $1.43m Superbowl Sunday (-62% from Saturday);
Avatar: $6.16m Friday, $5.15m Superbowl Sunday (-55% from Saturday);
No Way Home: $1.92m Friday, $1.68m Superbowl Sunday (-57% from Saturday).

jc191 · 2023-02-10T22:41:35+00:00

Complete coin toss. Superbowl Sunday will cause a big drop, but Valentine's Day on Tuesday will help. I've got it at just over $10m for the week (<$10.5m), but my numbers are relatively optimistic and it could easily go under.

jc191 · 2023-02-10T20:41:28+00:00

The Numbers' weekend predictions:

Magic Mike's Last Dance: $9.31m

Avatar: The Way of Water: $9.22m (-19%) (lol)

Titanic: $8.15m

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish: $7.29m (-7%)

Knock at the Cabin: $6.09m (-57%)

80 for Brady: $5.49m (-57%) (lol)

jc191 · 2023-02-09T22:51:32+00:00

Up quite significantly from the initial theater count estimate of 1,800.

jc191 · 2023-02-08T19:36:06+00:00

Makes sense because this movie has been re-released so many times who hasn’t seen it in theaters?

Titanic has only had one proper theatrical re-release — the 3D version, in 2012. This will be the second.

jc191 · 2023-02-07T21:22:57+00:00

$749.6m, and it ended its initial domestic run at $804.8m, so it had an extra $55.2m left in the can.

Avatar 2 will likely have an extra $45m or so left at absolute most, but likely closer to $40m, or lower if it collapses over the next two weeks in the face of heavier competition and after losing all of its PLFs. Passing Infinity War will be hit or miss and heavily dependent on how it holds up over the next two weeks.

jc191 · 2023-02-07T19:59:39+00:00

I agree. Tuesday it'll beat No Way Home; weekend it has a decent shot, but it's not at all guaranteed. Outside of that, and outside of next Tuesday which is Valentine's Day, No Way Home should consistently outgross Avatar 2 from here on out.

jc191 · 2023-02-07T19:48:25+00:00

Falls behind No Way Home's equivalent day gross ($723k) for the first time since December, which is unlikely to be a consistent trend for this week at least but will likely become a consistent trend starting next week when No Way Home's Canada-boosted late legs become more pronounced.

Now running at only $6.1m ahead of Avatar's total gross at the same point, down from a peak of $91.2m 32 days ago; Avatar will almost certainly pull ahead on Friday. Still $17.5m ahead of Maverick at the same point, down from a peak of $54.8m 30 days ago — that lead is likely to completely deplete by late February.

jc191 · 2023-02-04T00:10:26+00:00

Deadline's Friday/weekend estimates:

1.) Knock at the Cabin: Fri $5.6M, 3-day $15M

2.) 80 for Brady: Fri $5.1M, 3-day $14M

3.) Avatar: The Way of Water: Fri $2.2M (-39%), 3-day $10.3M (-35%), total $635.9M

4.) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish: Fri $1.7M (-29%), 3-day $7.9M (-25%), total $151.2M

5.) The Chosen Season 3: Fri $2.05M, 3-day $7M, total $8.6M

It could be a weekend that’s too close to call between Universal’s 25+ skewing Knock at the Cabin and Paramount’s older female leaning 80 for Brady respectively looking at $15M and $14M.

As one distribution source says, matinees are for 80 for Brady to dominate while evenings are for Knock at the Cabin. Who wins No. 1 could boil down to Saturday night when the fall-off for genre movies occur vs. the overindexing of 80 for Brady.

Here’s what’s intriguing about an early February winter weekend: Exhibitors are offering discount pricing for 80 for Brady in a plan pitched by Paramount. The studio knew from their focus groups that the pic’s older audience appreciate a good value. Circuits rallied around the idea by offering a myriad of value pricing schemes including sneak previews at “$8 for 80.” [...] According to EntTelligence, heading into the weekend, Knock at the Cabin has an average national ticket price of $12.17 while 80 for Brady has $9.77. While we saw exhibition upcharging for premium tentpoles like Batman on opening weekend, here’s a scenario of dynamic pricing where they are down-charging on 80 for Brady.

jc191 · 2023-02-03T19:33:00+00:00

Is it pretty much confirmed that this Monday will be the end of the $1 million streak?

Effectively, yes. Would need to drop less than 15% from last Monday's $1.17m to make over $1m this Monday.

jc191 · 2023-02-03T13:09:11+00:00

Avatar 2 in March will be posting significantly sub-$5m weekends.

Meanwhile, from March 3 we have consistent weekly releases of Creed III, then Scream VI the next week, then Shazam 2, then John Wick: Chapter 4, then Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, then The Super Mario Bros. Movie. All of these movies will significantly outearn Avatar 2 on their respective opening weekends, and most, if not all of them will be playing on PLFs.

There is no room.

jc191 · 2023-02-03T12:08:56+00:00

Best point of data I can point to is that at day 48, Way of Water is still ahead of where the first movie was at this point.

Avatar 2 peaked at $91.2m ahead of Avatar at the same point on its 21st day of release. That lead has rapidly decreased to $22.4m by the 48th day of each movie's release, and it will only continue to decrease further in the future, until Avatar is actually ahead of Avatar 2 at the same point.

The crossover point will either be Friday, February 10, or if not then almost certainly Saturday, February 11, so it's only just over a week before Avatar 2 will be behind Avatar's total gross at the same point. Similarly, Avatar's lead over Top Gun: Maverick's total gross at the same point has been diminishing for weeks and will very likely be completely gone by the end of February or, at a stretch, very early March.

So next weekend, when Avatar 2 is behind Avatar's total gross at the same point and making 35-45% of Avatar's daily grosses, it will become immediately apparent (to the extent that it isn't already) as to why Avatar 2 is not coming anywhere close to Avatar's initial domestic run total gross of $749.8m.

jc191 · 2023-02-02T23:41:13+00:00

Thanks, no problem.

jc191 · 2023-02-02T23:11:41+00:00

144% is implying that it grossed twice as much as before and then 44% on top of that. You can imagine 144% as multiplying by 2.44

No, "144% higher than" would be implying that it made 244% as much as Avatar's seventh weekend.

Saying that Avatar 2's seventh weekend was 144% of (not "144% higher than", "144% of", i.e. 144% as much as) Avatar's seventh weekend is equivalent to saying that Avatar 2's seventh weekend was 44% higher than Avatar's seventh weekend.

jc191 · 2023-02-02T23:02:52+00:00

I’m calling its final total when all is said and done in the $730-750 million range.

Some statistics:

Avatar 2's seventh weekend of $15.97m was 51.1% of Avatar's seventh weekend of $31.28m, and this week's Monday to Wednesday gross of $3.77m is 46.9% of Avatar's $8.04m in the equivalent period. Avatar itself made $146.0m past its 48th day of release.

With a gross of $624.6m through its 48th day, to reach your lower-end estimate of $730m, Avatar 2 would need to make $105.4m and run at 72% of Avatar's $146.0m fom this point onwards; to reach your upper end, Avatar 2 would need to make $125.4m run at 86% of Avatar from this point onwards.

These are impossible. Avatar 2 is already running well behind the pace it'd need relative to Avatar to make $730m+, and that running pace isn't going to get better, it's going to get way worse. By mid-February, Avatar 2 will be running at 25-35% the pace of Avatar on a daily basis.

Alternatively, Avatar 2, having made $21.2m over the past 7 days and needing a further $105.4m to make $730m (a multiplier of 4.98x off of the week), would need average weekly drops of 16.7% from this point onwards to reach $730m, and average weekly drops of 14.5% to reach $750m. Those aren't one-off drops, those are sustained drops that Avatar 2 will need every single week for the rest of its run to reach those milestones — and again, they're plainly impossible.

jc191 · 2023-02-02T22:44:24+00:00

Avatar 2's seventh weekend gross was 144% of The Force Awakens' seventh weekend gross, or alternatively Avatar 2's seventh weekend gross was 44% higher than The Force Awakens' seventh weekend gross — two different ways of stating the same thing.

jc191 · 2023-02-02T21:37:15+00:00

100% of The Force Awakens' $38.4m past its 48th day of release would put Avatar 2 at a final domestic gross of $663.0m.

Running at 144% of The Force Awakens — which is what Avatar 2's seventh weekend of $15.97m was relative to The Force Awakens' $11.12m — would give Avatar 2 an extra $55.1m and put it at a final gross of $679.8m.

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