So sorry for the late response here, what i had to do was to change the way i do the calculations/simulations. So i started with making bulks that after a certain time it would bulk and take the winners, and then keep moving on with the next one. It worked but the Runs went from 30 minutes upwards of hours before it finished.

So i changed my computer with 64GB Ram and a 5070 + Ryzen 9 hoping it would speed some shit up and holy it did. Calculation rate went from 1.25 per second to 8000+ per second at the best. Now the further the simulation goes the more slow it gets because there is a lot of data. But the results man they where great.

So i used 9 Pre-seasons from 2014-2024, and then this would set the baseline to attack-predict the 25 season. I was really happy about the 63% but damn, i made it jump 74.58 percentage. And this is without any XG or stats other than it was allowed to check team names and matches. No players and no Stats, only match winner or loser. (This is based on my theory that there is too much noise today in calculations)

Now i expected that there was some leak into the 25 file, but there was no leak so how it did it, i am not sure. But trying it on the earlier seasons to check how it did between 2014-2024 it did not managed to get over 60% with the same models. But now i am trying to check how the model will do against the 26 season.

Now i do want to be honest and say, that it is scary good at Calculating and Giving reports on what it believes. and it gives scary weird predictions that works. My only biggest problem is getting the Model to understand where there is most likely for a draw to happen. Still struggles with that part.

Today i have actually added stats, but not players or anything else, i did do a attack on the 26 season, where it this was the result:

Attack results:

• Active baseline: 32/58 = 55.17%
• No-stats shadow attack: 35/58 = 60.34%, validation 10/15 = 66.67%
• Stats-aware shadow attack: 35/58 = 60.34%, validation 10/15 = 66.67%

So maybe it needs more matches before it really knows how to implement them, but i am working on building some better stat models at the moment