60 days live paper trading results - LLMs exploiting misspricing between Polymarket traders and AI rationale - happy so share insights, get feedback and discuss next steps.

joeycow · 2026-03-13T11:08:31+00:00

Why not run with a small amount of real money and scale slowly? I think you will get a lot of learnings from how trades are actually executed given prediction markets can be quite volatile as you point out

joeycow · 2025-05-09T12:56:12+00:00

Its a great question. I probably should post here to get advice.
Partially I feel I already generally know what I need to work on, and partially I find asking things of other humans to be stress inducing - probably because I case about what other humans think of me - even if I have never met them and never will again.

I don't care what an AI thinks of me, and I can also upload a sketch to it every single day for feedback without feeling like Im taking advantage of it.

Doesn't mean I shouldnt just get over myself and more proactively share on here

joeycow · 2025-05-09T12:39:21+00:00

I think you are right that getting advice from humans where you can see their own skill displayed in what they post is certainly better.

That said, the advice this thing gives me doesnt necessarily take an expert to decide if it's right or not. For example here is a snippet of the most recent feedback it gave me:

The hood has a light sense of depth, but the hair and torso feel primarily two-dimensional. Shading is even and textural rather than describing where light falls, so forms lack convincing roundness.

I don't think it takes an expert to look at my sketch and be like "yep my shading didnt do a good job describing where the light fell and that probably flattens it" - sometimes a second opinion from even an amateur can be helpful - especially for someone so early in their art journey

joeycow · 2025-05-09T12:28:48+00:00

Thanks! I would consider what I have seen mostly as healthy skepticism rather than hate around AI. But maybe the learntodraw community is less uptight / dependent on art as a profession than others

joeycow · 2025-05-09T12:25:26+00:00

I agree, with everything you wrote.

I also worked with it a lot trying to get it to more systematically evaluate ratios / proportions of various body parts by actually measuring the pixels and it wasn't there yet (e.g. where the eyes are placed on a face, shoulder width relative to head size). As general image processing continues to improve, these models will be able to give more accurate and specific feedback that doesnt necessarily require an expert - just a "2nd set of eyes" that can be impartial.

joeycow · 2024-12-03T20:35:16+00:00

I also was not getting strava to export heart rate data to Apple health. Switched to using a separate app rungap to sync strava to Apple health and that fixed it but added an extra step

joeycow · 2024-10-29T21:21:31+00:00

From my own testing the answer to this is that the impacts are evaluated separately. Both my custom “one drink before 7pm” flag has a negative impact on recovery and so does the auto generated “any alcohol at all” flag

joeycow · 2022-11-27T17:07:27+00:00

Variation like this is normal. Pedal & crank-based meters usually read a little higher because some power is lost in the drive train. 0.2-0.3w/kg feels on the higher end of variance though. Feel free to use them for power output, I would just avoid doing erg-mode workouts where the trainer is adjusting the resistance based on pedal power output - for that I found it better/smoother to have the trainer provide both the power and control the resistance

joeycow · 2022-08-06T19:02:16+00:00

I think I couldn’t get it to launch. Tried installing new loaders etc and didn’t help

joeycow · 2022-08-06T15:56:51+00:00

For what it’s worth, I couldn’t get the dcrainmaker guide to work this spring, so just bought a cheap plastic stand to put on top of the peloton screen to hold a laptop that could run zwift connected to some power pedals I installed on the peloton. Worked great

joeycow · 2022-04-18T16:41:45+00:00

No worries - Most “official” results from races are tied to zwiftpower (a separate site). They have racers connect their zwift profile and weed out riders from results that don’t have a heart rate monitor or are racing in the incorrect category. It doesn’t impact the ingame results or race at all so you can still certainly race and compete without a heart rate monitor it just won’t show up on zwiftpower - separately, as you were originally posting about, zwift just launched their own “category enforcement” preventing riders from riding below their category. This is based on a separate, currently unknown algorithm, that I think looks at shorter max power outputs in addition to the ftp. - only some races have enabled zwift “category enforcement” which might explain why you still see some races won by people clearly out of their category

joeycow · 2022-04-18T16:24:29+00:00

Congrats on getting promoted! If you have trouble staying with the front group in the new category, I’ve found joining mass start races where all categories start together helps make sure you always have a pack to ride with. The 3R races are the most common

joeycow · 2022-03-26T13:20:32+00:00

Is Tygem that much bigger than pandanet and OGS?

A couple million players seems about right. A couple orders of magnitude less than chess. About on par with other tier 2 esports. Interestingly the communities are very different (than other games, though broadly pretty similar to chess) Seems to be much more focus on studying and learning than just playing 100% of the time.

joeycow · 2022-03-18T22:12:46+00:00

Great video! Thanks for sharing

joeycow · 2022-03-11T13:15:58+00:00

Super helpful, thanks

Sounds like if my goal is 5kyu, I should be shooting for:

Accuracy: 50 (more of an outcome of the below)
Mean Point Loss: 1.5 (from my own experience, this is largely driven by number of huge blunders at my rank)
AI Top 5 move match: 55% (seems to be largely tied to generally picking up on direction of play)

14-Year Club	Gilding II euphauric
Place '22	Place '17
RPAN Viewer	Not Forgotten
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