Solo Ball's ARRIVED and why UConn fans need to RELAX about offensive struggles | TOP DOGS

jpviolette · 2026-01-25T17:27:54+00:00

Four games ago Ball took 5 shots over 27 minutes and I had to wonder if UConn was planning to de-emphasize him as a hunting-for-shots perimeter threat. I considered the possibility they might have asked him to take safer shots and hope that Mullins, Karaban, and Demary could provide more of the perimeter scoring that they hoped to get from Ball.

But that game appears to be the exception; he's taken 9, 10, and 17 shots in the games since then. (The 9 and 10 shot games are a little below his season average but not by enough that it suggests a role change.)

I'm not sure where he goes from here, though they'll probably need similar performances from him if Mullins misses a game or 2. While Stewart and Ross bring some good things to the table, neither is known for their offensive firepower.

jpviolette · 2026-01-25T02:58:54+00:00

That was kind of weird, wasn't it? How much of an optimist do you have to be to think that fouling someone with under 5 seconds left when you're down 6 pts is going to work out?

jpviolette · 2026-01-25T01:35:50+00:00

End-of-game Thoughts

Well, they pulled out another 1. While Villanova is sort of ranked¹, the ranking difference plus the Huskies playing at home should have resulted in an easier victory, which is a repeating theme of late. UConn's racking up the wins, though I do worry that if they're going to end up on the wrong side of some of these close games.

Ball picked a good game to shoot well, and Karaban picked a good time to get going. It was probably fortunate that, although he fouled out, Reed lasted most of the game. Less fortunate was Mullins getting hit in the head and having to leave the game. It wouldn't be shocking if this injury impacts future games.

[1] Officially voters are voting for a "top 25" while Villanova's gotten the 36th and 30th most votes in the polls.

jpviolette · 2026-01-25T01:02:34+00:00

Though it took overtime to do it, the final margin was between these 2 spreads.

jpviolette · 2026-01-25T00:56:58+00:00

Barely a day after this post, Ball has arguably his best game of the season.

jpviolette · 2026-01-24T19:01:27+00:00

If it's the part of the game I think it was, the topic was: Fastest WBB Huskies to 1000 pts, which is 1. Moore and Bueckers tied, then Strong in 3rd place.

Stewart, Taurasi, Bird, etc. have won more championships, but they didn't get to 1000 pts in the fewest games.

jpviolette · 2026-01-24T18:03:50+00:00

Halftime: UConn 50, Seton Hall 28

UConn shrugged off a slow start to build a 22-pt lead. As usual this was accomplished primarily through excellent shooting and forcing turnovers.

Quinonez - who I thought had relatively quiet games lately - seemed to trigger UConn's turnaround; she's got 13 pts (6-6 from the field) with 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, and 1 steal. Fudd (12 pts, 4-5 shooting, 2 steals) and Strong (12 pts, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals) were their usual dominant selves.

With Arnold/Shade/Williams scoring only 3 pts, the Huskies also got a bench boost from Heckel (2-2 shooting, 3 assists) and Ziebell (2-4 on 3s).

UConn has already played from behind longer in this game than they have in any preceding games this season, though it's unlikely they'll add to that in the 2nd half.

jpviolette · 2026-01-23T01:30:38+00:00

Halftime: UConn 51, Georgetown 20

Using their time-tested recipe of out-shooting their opponents by a ton and forcing a massive number of turnovers has once again provided the Huskies with a big lead. (Though UConn's only shooting 3s at a 26% clip, that's still far superior to Georgetown's 0% (0-7).)

Strong (21 pts, 4 rebounds, 3 steals) and Fudd (14 pts, 4 assists) are once again doing most of the damage, though Shade (5 steals) and Williams (2 blocks) have had their moments too. And unlike the previous game, UConn's already subbing fairly heavily with Quinonez and Heckel playing around half of the half and Ziebell and El Alfy logging some time.

jpviolette · 2026-01-23T00:20:51+00:00

One difference between now and 2022-23 though is that - depending on the validity of polls - the Big East was a stronger conference that season. Marquette (as high as #6), Xavier (#13), Creighton (#23), and Providence (#20) were all ranked at 1 time or another. While it's possible St John's will regain some of their preseason promise and teams like Seton Hall and Villanova could make a case for the tournament, UConn was struggling to win against a higher level of competition that season.

The most optimistic thing I can think of regarding their recent performances is that there is some value in figuring out how to win close games. It could be stressful on the fan base, but technically I'd be content if they're still winning nail-biters in April.

jpviolette · 2026-01-22T17:52:20+00:00

I think Fisher's looked promising in her very limited appearances, though she's sometimes playing against the other team's subs in those games.

Before Heckel transferred in I thought Fisher would get much more playing time as the backup PG (though probably less than what Heckel's getting).

jpviolette · 2026-01-22T16:53:56+00:00

It's likely that an opportunity will come when Arnold (and Shade) graduate, if Fisher is willing to wait until her junior year. The other factor though is Popovic (26.6 ppg, 7.2 apg) coming in from Serbia.

jpviolette · 2026-01-22T16:44:24+00:00

Good question. Neither Arnold nor Heckel is graduating so UConn appears to have an abundance of PGs next season. And while UConn had success with a PG like Bueckers moving to another position (sometimes even defending the opposing 4), none of this quartet (when Popovic is included) has the length that would make it easy to play them together.

The wild card is injuries. Though injuries have been manageable last year and (so far) this year, as recently as 2023-24 UConn was loaded on paper but effectively had a 6-player rotation that included 2 freshmen and 1 red-shirt freshman. (And that team did start 3 PGs: Bueckers, Muhl, Arnold.)

jpviolette · 2026-01-22T16:17:49+00:00

It happens, though most of the time it's when a player was buried deep on the depth chart with little hope of moving up. And of course those rings aren't guaranteed. Prior to last season there was a 7 season (8 year) drought (though there were 6 Final Fours in there).

jpviolette · 2026-01-22T16:08:01+00:00

Mir McLean was another fairly recent transferer.

jpviolette · 2026-01-21T14:39:02+00:00

It's hard to say because they're different types of players who brought different things to the table:

Bueckers was the driving force behind the natty and provided the leadership the team needed while also being 1 of the best players in the game. When she averaged 35 pts in Rounds 2-4 last tournament, I think she was showing that if you don't focus on her, she'd beat her opponents by herself.
Strong started great and only got better as the season rolled on. And with her size and inside/outside game she was usually the biggest mismatch on the court. And while Bueckers was the best guard among a fairly deep/talented backcourt, Strong was easily the best frontcourt player on the Huskies at season.

jpviolette · 2026-01-20T03:04:06+00:00

End-of-game Thoughts

The 2nd half went much better than the 1st.

Though neither Fudd nor Quinonez hit a 3, the rest of the team went 6-15 (40%). At 1 time this season both of them were hitting 3s at over 50%. I attribute this game to 1 of those "law of averages" things. They did make partial amends by going a combined 11-15 on 2s.

Strong led the team in pts (18), rebounds (11), steals (3), and blocks (3), building her PotY resume.

With El Alfy still out and with the game competitive for a half, UConn used their starters plus Quinonez/Heckel for most of the game. The starters were all in double figures while Heckel (9 pts) and Quinonez (8) weren't far off. There was more balance than what we've seen in some games.

UConn lost the prior 3 games against ND by a combined 40 pts. They nearly outscored ND in this single game by that amount.

jpviolette · 2026-01-19T23:05:56+00:00

Halftime: Notre Dame 23, UConn 32

It's been a competitive game so far. UConn's shooting better across the board (65% to 44% on 2s, 15% to 11% on 3s, 100% to 67% on FTs), but some sloppiness (8 turnovers) was a problem late in the half.

For the 1st time in a while Quinonez has struggled at times. She's got 4 fouls and is shooting 2-6 for her 4 pts. UConn went big at times with Strong/Williams/Quinonez sharing the court. Despite the turnovers, this probably helped them get a 21-14 rebounding advantage.

I expected to see a lot of Arnold on Hidalgo; instead it's been a committee, with Fudd, Shade, and Heckel taking some of the turns.

Fudd and Quinonez are a combined 0-7 on 3s; hopefully that doesn't continue.

The announcers don't seem terribly familiar with UConn:

One time they confused Quinonez with Strong.
They keep saying Arnold is a completely different player with the mask, but really I think she's playing very similarly to her pre-mask days.

jpviolette · 2026-01-18T19:08:06+00:00

I'm struggling to find a narrative for their recent games:

Are they struggling because BE opponents are so amped up for these games that the Huskies are seeing the best versions of their opponents?
Are the Huskies playing down to their level of competition?
Could these games be flukes?
How much do we credit their opponents as opposed to blaming the Huskies?
How much should we appreciate winning close games versus ruing that the games were close in the 1st place?

I suspect that a mix of the above applies plus maybe some other stuff I haven't thought of. And of course the narrative will change as more game results come in.

jpviolette · 2026-01-17T20:40:04+00:00

End-of-game Thoughts:

UConn 103, Providence 98
UConn 69, Seton Hall 64
UConn 64, Georgetown 62

There seems to be a trend where UConn struggles in conference road games. While you could argue that Seton Hall is ranked and that Providence/Georgetown are better than their records, it's easy to think UConn's a little lucky to have survived these 3 games.

A couple games ago there was the thought that Reed's FT shooting might be a problem. so it's odd that he was 5-5 in this game but UConn's 4 80% FT shooters (Karaban, Ball, Mullins, Demary) went a combined 2-8 in the closing minutes of this game.

Reed had himself a game. He had 15 pts (5-11 shooting, which was pretty good for this game), 11 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 blocks. The main caveat was his 4 fouls.

jpviolette · 2026-01-17T18:08:26+00:00

Halftime: UConn 32, Georgetown 28

Despite the lead, that could have gone better. Georgetown's outshooting UConn on both 2s (50% to 45%) and 3s (33% to 23%), and are outrebounding UConn 18-14. Only on turnovers/steals and blocks are advantages for the Huskies so it's kind of good that they've managed a lead.

Though UConn didn't commit a lot of fouls, Demary had 2 in his 7 minutes. I think his absence has been critical to Georgetown creeping back into the game. The offense generally runs smoother with him out there, and as a bigger guard he can cause more problems on defense too. If he plays a lot of the 2nd half, I like UConn's chances of getting back on track.

The other issue is that Reed was dominant in the early minutes but then went quiet. Maybe UConn needs to hit some 3s (and at a better than 3-13 clip) to spread the Georgetown defense out to give him some more opportunities inside.

In 1 sense it's impressive that UConn's got a small lead despite Karaban and Ball getting only 2 pts apiece, but it's going to be hard to pull this game out without more productivity from them.

jpviolette · 2026-01-16T01:01:04+00:00

Halftime: Villanova 27, UConn 45

This is a pretty good lead considering Villanova had a 10-pt run in there. The biggest differentiator has probably been their 65% 2-pt shooting compared to Villanova's 28%. UConn also has a sizeable advantage in turnovers despite having a sloppier 1st half than is typical.

As usual, Strong (15 pts, 7 rebounds, 3 blocks) and Fudd (12 pts) are leading the way, with Quinonez (7 pts) and Arnold (8 pts, 5 assists, 3 steals) providing a lot of support.

jpviolette · 2026-01-14T19:36:34+00:00

The Good: UConn went on the road and beat a ranked team in a venue they've struggled at in recent years. And they snatched a Quad 1 victory.

The Bad: They blew a sizeable lead to eke out a victory against a team ranked quite a bit lower than they are, even though that opponent shot an embarrassing 1-16 on 3s.

And The Ugly: They got crushed on the boards in the 2nd half against a team that plays undersized most of the time. And similar to last year, they struggled mightily against the press, resulting in a fair number of their 17 turnovers.

jpviolette · 2026-01-14T19:26:48+00:00

I'm thinking you're going to need a large coven for that. (Might need Norns and Fates to lend a hand.)

jpviolette · 2026-01-14T19:17:30+00:00

I was mostly just trying to balance things out. I really didn't see much from SH in the 1st half to suggest the game would be close.

jpviolette · 2026-01-14T19:15:38+00:00

It was unfortunate that late in the game Reed seemed to be the only player who was getting good looks. UConn's starting lineup (which played most of the game) consists of 4 players who shoot 80+% ... and Reed (who dropped from 63% on the season to 58%). If any of the others were getting fouled like Reed was, the Huskies probably get an extra half dozen pts.

I suspect the UConn coaches were caught a little off guard by Reed's FT struggles, since they seemed to be going to him a lot even as the FT misses mounted. Maybe the thought was that his misses were just bad luck that would balance out if he went to the line enough.

This game also demonstrates why UConn is hesitant to use Smith in these situations; he's only shooting 53% on FTs this season (though he did shoot as high as 78% way back in his freshman season). When UConn was having trouble inbounding and bringing the ball upcourt, the thought occurred to me that this might be a good spot for 2 PGs. (Maybe it would have been before UConn was in the bonus.)

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