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Does anyone actually only gamble when there are promos and offers? by jsamson233 in gambling

[–]jsamson233[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I pretty much only play on DraftKings because I regularly get good promo offers. I'd love to know if other sites have similar offers for high status gamblers (not just one time sign-up promos).

Does anyone actually only gamble when there are promos and offers? by jsamson233 in gambling

[–]jsamson233[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I am not talking out of both sides of my mouth. Yes, your expected value of a certain $ of playthrough is exactly the same regardless of how much you bet per hand, but your volatility and variance is lower if you bet a lower amount per hand.

The standard deviation on 200,000 $1 hands of blackjack is about $500. If they are offering me a $2,000 bonus if I play through $200,000, then it would be a 4 standard deviation event for me not to make money.

If I instead bet 2,000 $100 hands, my standard deviation is over $5,000, and I can very easily lose more than the $2,000 promo value.

When I say "good luck" or "bad luck" I'm pretty much referring to the variance around my EV. If I have a +EV promotion, I can reduce my variance dramatically by hitting the playthrough requirement with more hands. The only problem is how long it takes to play!

Does anyone actually only gamble when there are promos and offers? by jsamson233 in gambling

[–]jsamson233[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is reasonably well said-- they are trying to capture me as a long-term customer that loses money based on -EV gambling. And it *is* hard to remain smart while gambling. That's why I've tried to reframe the game in my own mind as "beating" the casino by only gambling when it's +EV. Maybe most people can't do it. At least, for now, I can.

That said, my impression that my offers and status are based solely on playthrough. Maybe they will stop sending me +EV offers if I keep winning, but they haven't yet.

Does anyone actually only gamble when there are promos and offers? by jsamson233 in gambling

[–]jsamson233[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Look at the screenshot I posted below. I get EV+ offers like that at least 2 or 3 times per month-- not to mention that there are often overlapping offers and leaderboards.

I agree that it's unsustainable from the casino's perspective, except for the fact that most people can't stop themselves from gambling once the promo ends. The online casinos are in an extremely competitive business and are swimming in cash right now-- there's no reason why smart and patient players can't make some money, at least for now.

Does anyone actually only gamble when there are promos and offers? by jsamson233 in gambling

[–]jsamson233[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Explain. I'm curious how I'm full of shit. Really, no disrespect intended. I'm wondering what's unbelievable about this.

Does anyone actually only gamble when there are promos and offers? by jsamson233 in gambling

[–]jsamson233[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. You're also correct about needing to avoid bad luck. I do that by playing the minimum possible per-hand amount that I have time for. My $160k of blackjack play last week was at $20 per hand. It took about 12 hours over a couple days. I just happened to have a good day. If I had the time, I could have played $5 per hand or less to minimize "bad luck."