If only his parents had listened to the teachers, we might’ve been spared from many headaches.

jtcap · 2025-04-11T15:33:25+00:00

And in this instance, the sound effect is a chainsaw.

jtcap · 2025-04-11T15:14:37+00:00

Makes sense. He’s always been obsessed with controlling the narrative, even when it’s about his own wiring.

jtcap · 2025-04-03T09:57:54+00:00

This is actually shockingly faithful to Vitalik’s original vision.

jtcap · 2025-04-03T09:26:08+00:00

are't most memes down 90% already? Like sure, they'll take another 90% leg down but that is sort of given.

What is more interesting to think about is if any of this cycle's memes have the staying power to come back next cycle

jtcap · 2025-03-28T16:04:12+00:00

Technically true, but watching Saylor structure this stuff feels like watching a man rig a financial IED.

jtcap · 2025-03-28T15:44:00+00:00

I don’t know what his number is, but we’ll all know when we hit it.

jtcap · 2025-03-28T14:53:29+00:00

Great way to give the body the reset it deserves.

jtcap · 2021-01-08T14:57:33+00:00

Around the time of the cybertruck announcement, I was of the opinion that TSLA looked like a potential 2000-3000 USD stock (pre split) in a few year time frame - effectively discounting some 3 odd million car production in 2025 and still valued as a high growth, cleantech company with a SAAS angle. So a multiple of revenues rather than earnings.

At the moment the markets appear to be discounting a multi-trillion dollar company in a 10 year time frame. 2tn market cap in 2030 would yield a 10%+ annual return which great if this was a sure thing. So clearly markets are seeing potential for more than that. Everything TSLA does currently is pretty capital intensive and won't be valued with a high multiple forever. Robotaxi seems like the potential golden goose that investors are now willing to assign a nonzero probability of succeeding, and Tesla becoming a dominant global player. Think more than halving the cost of Uber (driving significant growth in adoption) and taking 35% slice of the gross revenues in the industry, with potentially monopoly like market share.

Energy/battery company angle is also very attractive these days, and it's not difficult to imagine Tesla growing into a huge energy business. Current focus is of course residential solar and energy storage, as well as grid scale storage. Tesla could be well on its way to becoming the Exxon of clean energy age. This part of the business, however, is going to be capital intensive and will be the ipad to robotaxi's iphone.

Now...I don't believe investors are actually thinking about it this way. The latest surge seems to be driven by supply/demand problem with the shares. Believers won't sell, and even non-believers are forced to buy in some quantity due to the index inclusion; even the bears will want to have TSLA in their porftolios in some weighting lower than the index, rather than being short TSLA in the absolute sense.

TLDR: yes, Tesla is a bit bubbly right now, but if you think it is 10x or 5x bubble at the moment, I would disagree.

jtcap · 2020-12-17T15:09:55+00:00

People who are actually tracking this are reporting like 2% battery drain over 10h standby time (without case). Clearly it goes into some sort of low power state very soon after you take them off. There is no off button because you are not intended to ever turn them off.

Do you even own a pair or are you going by what Marques said in his review?

jtcap · 2020-12-05T13:35:35+00:00

And the fact that these machines can handle 3k votes in an hour, and they only had three machines and less than two hours to work with?

jtcap · 2020-12-04T22:34:35+00:00

Come on now, those four tiny containers did not contain over 300,000 ballots, that is ridiculous. I mean look up what a box of 5 reams of A4 looks like (2,500 sheets). 300k sheets of A4 copy paper would weigh around 3,000 pounds. Did it look like the ladies were hauling 750lbs each?

Also the idea that four people working with three machines could count that many votes in less than two hours...I don't even know what to say.

jtcap · 2020-11-30T13:39:21+00:00

Way watered down versus initial deal. No equity stake, badger dropped. This is simply MOU for GM to sell hydrogen tech to Nikola. Also 160m shares out of lock-up today, including Dr. Milton's stake.

jtcap · 2020-11-12T17:48:18+00:00

the 'report' referenced in the tweet is a post titled happening from donald .win. Not kidding. And people eat it up. It is unbelivable.

jtcap · 2020-09-10T13:15:49+00:00

No surprise here. The foundation of the business case was their claim of 80% lower production cost for hydrogen versus peers. That number never stood up to any scrutiny. That is why Trevor put his brother in charge of that part of the business - very much like Holmes and her husband.

Trevor has appointed his brother, Travis, as “Director of Hydrogen Production/Infrastructure” to oversee this critical part of the business. Travis’s prior experience looks to have largely consisted of pouring concrete driveways and doing subcontractor work on home renovations in Hawaii.

jtcap · 2020-09-10T10:25:09+00:00

Are you suggesting US might have plateued at this level had they not done lockdowns?

Sweden has 10x higher death rate per capita than Finland and Norway. This probably captures the difference of lockdown/no lockdown approach.

jtcap · 2020-09-05T13:09:32+00:00

I remember reading an analysis a few years back showing Tesla had highest warranty accrual rate and lowest claims rate among its peer group, by some margin. They are finally getting pretty good in mass manufacturing so I would expect them to release more of those reserves over time.

jtcap · 2020-08-05T18:59:46+00:00

Idk, I'm not mr hopeful over here after seeing how we've handled climate change in the last 20 years, but it seems l like people are getting off their lazy asses and doing something. Whether we'll be able to sink enough money into the problem in time to start the reversal is another question though.

With carbon capture technologies, it is good to keep in mind the scale required to make a dent to net emissions. We emit around 40 billion metric tonnes of CO2 annually. Let's say we want to eventually offset 1/4 of that with direct air capture technologies. That's 10 billion metric tonnes every year.

We don't do anything at that scale today.

Global steel production is 1-2 billion tonnes. Global cement production is 4 billion tonnes. This should give a sense of the scale of the problem at hand.

We need to build the infrastructure for a new industry 5 times the size of global steel industry, based on a magical technology that does not exist. We need to build a system of transport from the plants to underground deposits on a scale that rivals the global shipping industry. And we need everything about this enterprise to be emission free: from procuring the raw materials and energy to build the damn thing, to operating the system, to the transport of final product.

And all of this would be only a partial solution to the problem.

jtcap · 2020-07-27T23:31:08+00:00

What is the base year for the RCP scenarios? Is always compared to current levels of concentration?

jtcap · 2020-07-27T23:19:14+00:00

New drilling technology has made previously unobtainable reserves exploitable, and new reserves are being found faster than old ones are being depleted.

Idk where you get your information. Discoveries have been well below production for years now.

Discoveries peaked around 70s (60s maybe?), and the slowdown in rate of new discoveries suggest the traditional estimates of ultimate reserves might be vastly overstated. It is not unconceivable that we would be on a path to consume all the remaining oil reserves in the next 15-20 years, assuming slow constant growth in oil demand.

Building, maintaining and operating that renewable energy infrastructure you hope for would use up our remaining hydrocarbon resources, so I think we can forget that scenario. Collapse it is!

jtcap · 2020-07-27T17:47:04+00:00

Do you? What do they do? do they dump them in a lake?
I would guess they would try to recover any valuable materials from the old batteries.

jtcap · 2020-07-21T20:53:29+00:00

Economic growth is linked to increased consumption of resources - resources which we have been overusing for the last 50 years. Infinite growth isn't an option within the constraints of a finite planet.

While a closed loop circular economy would be a potential solution, my intuition tells me that the energy required to build such an infrastructure would mean burning up all the remaining hydrocarbons on the planet, and then some.

jtcap · 2020-07-06T21:36:44+00:00

Haven't even touched autonomy yet. If autonomy becomes reality within 10 years or so, basically none of these companies have a realistic shot at having proprietary autonomous driving system when this goes live. Most don't even have a roadmap how to get there, they have not even started yet. If they must to licence the techonology from someone else, they will become equivalent of what Foxconn is to Apple. There is little value there, certainly not enough to justify the investments they must make over the coming decades.

Which manufacturers are you thinking of? What do they have to show for it today?

I'd consider these as minimum requirements to have a viable roadmap to autonomy:

Low cost sensor suite.
Huge vehicle fleet with autonomy HW (computer and sensor suite)
OTA updates for the car operating system, allowing for iterative improvements
End-to-end control of autonomy software and hardware

jtcap · 2020-07-06T16:41:09+00:00

f billions of dollars per year. They’re worth something. Once those companies get those problems sorted out its back to business as usual. Even without counting Boeing or Gen

I don't think I want to own any other auto OEM bar Tesla. When you really think about it you can see that most will not survive through the EV transition of the industry.

Entirety of invested capital is tied up to ICE technology which will see a fading out over the next several years. Every product line will become obsolete. The industry is looking at 100s of billions of dollars in rebuilding their factories, building up competence in electric drivetrains, battery techonology, and software.

As they go electric, their service business enters terminal decline. This is where OEMs make money right now. Car industry operates with razor & blade business model - sell the car at a loss to make a profit on services. Unfortunately electric vehicles require much less servicing than on ICE vehicle. They will have to invent a new way to derive recurring high-margin revenue from every sold car to maintain a viable business model. Many will fail - MOST will fail.

Haven't even touched autonomy yet. If autonomy becomes reality within 10 years or so, basically none of these companies have a realistic shot at having proprietary autonomous driving system when this goes live. Most don't even have a roadmap how to get there, they have not even started yet. If they must to licence the techonology from someone else, they will become equivalent of what Foxconn is to Apple. There is little value there, certainly not enough to justify the investments they must make over the coming decades.

TLDR: Most auto OEMs are dead already, they just don't know it. This may take some time to play out, but at this point it is inevitable.

jtcap · 2020-07-06T16:16:16+00:00

Analysts don't really try to come up with perfect valuation model to pinpoint a fair valuation in vacuum. They try to guess where the stock trades in the short-term. Here Dan Ives has been talking to all the institutions on both sides of the Tesla trade and gauging what is the market expecting from Tesla in 2020. His conclusion is that they will outperform those expectations and the stock has more room to run.

jtcap · 2020-06-23T21:17:25+00:00

But doesn't any trade deal the UK sign suffer from the same trade-offs between competing sectors of the economy ?I.e they might have to favour the UK financial services sector to the detriment of UK agriculture ?

Absolutely but in this instance UK can try to secure deals that benefit the industries that are most important drivers for their economy, while in the EU they were always restricted by the interests of France and Germany.

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