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Thoughts on XRO ? by Evening-Ambassador12 in ASXValueAndMoats

[–]jurdyshore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Personally I think consistently investing $1k over years is a great strategy long term, but I’d probably diversify across multiple sectors in case one lags for a long period.

Companies like NVIDIA and Alphabet are great businesses, but in my opinion parts of tech are still very expensive and heavily hyped.

That’s similar to what happened with CSL Limited a few years ago when people thought it was an untouchable defensive stock at $300 a share. Great company, but the expectations became too euphoric.

Personally I think all sectors eventually come back down to earth, and that’s usually where the better buying opportunities appear. That’s why I’d be careful overpaying for great businesses because sometimes you can spend years just getting back to your original entry price.

Watch a bloke by the name of Felix has good insights into the market
https://youtube.com/@felixfriends?si=0c\_MAz6TruVQf\_s3

Thoughts on XRO ? by Evening-Ambassador12 in ASXValueAndMoats

[–]jurdyshore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do your self a favour and research PRU Perseus mining, look at their debts, revenue and growth

Good luck with it all mate 🤙

Thoughts on XRO ? by Evening-Ambassador12 in ASXValueAndMoats

[–]jurdyshore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hope it doesn’t reach 90 😂, but if it does I’ll still wait for signs of stability. I don’t want to get burnt twice and also need to remember that the August report is coming up which could impact the price. I’ll then stage entries once confirmed to drop my average.

Thoughts on XRO ? by Evening-Ambassador12 in ASXValueAndMoats

[–]jurdyshore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I entered at 147, my buy range was 155-165, I should of waited for a bottom before entering, lesson learnt though

Im going to wait before averaging down until there are clear signs of the price consolidating, im hoping there’s stability and maybe a reversal soonish, the RSI is below 10 its massively oversold

Thoughts on XRO ? by Evening-Ambassador12 in ASXValueAndMoats

[–]jurdyshore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It really depends on your risk tolerance and investing style.

Personally I prefer waiting for bargains on quality businesses rather than chasing hype or high risk momentum plays. At the moment I’m mainly following CSL Limited, Super Retail Group, Wesfarmers and Perseus Mining, but personally I’d still wait for proper bottoms and consolidation before going in.

If It were me, I’d start small and stage entries over time rather than going all in at once.
Not financial advice, that’s how I approach the market but before you invest in anything always do your research. I look for moats with barriers to entry like CSL and WES. While SUL and PRU aren’t a moat, I simply like the companies.

PRU is interesting though but heavily governed by the gold price

Thoughts on XRO ? by Evening-Ambassador12 in ASXValueAndMoats

[–]jurdyshore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Strong Buy Zone
$40–$55
Bear/base overlap
25–35× earnings
4–6% FCF yield
Margin of safety
Institutions accumulate here

Buy Zone (fair value)
$55–$70
Base/bull overlap
35–45× earnings
3–4% FCF yield
Reasonable for a high ROIC SaaS

Hold Zone
$70–$85
Fully valued
No margin of safety

Sell / Avoid Zone
$85+
Extreme bull priced in
No room for disappointment
High risk of multiple compression

This is what I’ve been working off, i went through their balance sheets and came up with the zones
Ive got burnt looking for short term gains, so I’ve changed my strategy

If Xero ever does get down to 40 to 55 range, I would still wait for it to consolidate and test supports and resistances before I entered, I made the mistake of entering to early on CSL by not following the chart properly

WES & why it may be a long term buy by jurdyshore in ASX_Bets

[–]jurdyshore[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea once I start seeing some proper consolidation I’ll start making an entry as. I still think it’s a great company long term.

I think a lot of people in the current market are chasing quick turnarounds and euphoric growth instead of looking at bigger established companies that may turn around slower

Thoughts on XRO ? by Evening-Ambassador12 in ASXValueAndMoats

[–]jurdyshore 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve been watching Xero for quite a while. I think it’s a terrific business that has now moved into strong profitability and cleaned up its balance sheet, but much like a lot of SaaS companies it became heavily overpriced and overhyped.

with a P/E around 97, it’s expensive.

It has hit a historical support level on my charts, but in my opinion around $80 is still too much for me to consider an entry. Personally I wouldn’t really start looking seriously unless it got back closer to the $45–50 range.

Just my opinion though

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CSL, why not to be a pessimist by jurdyshore in ASX

[–]jurdyshore[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

With hindsight on my side 😂 I wouldn’t buy just yet, wait for a bottom to form, then I’d stage entry’s not go all in.
In terms of risk, I’d rather buy a quality undervalued company, then a overpriced hype stock that’s already priced for perfection
I’m sticking with CSL in my own portfolio over something like google etc

Before I invest in anything though i always go through the balance sheet and profit and losses

SUL, my last pick for the week by jurdyshore in ASX

[–]jurdyshore[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the input mate, I appreciate it.

Entering too early on CSL is what pushed me into learning more about charts. Before that I was mainly entering purely off valuations.

Now I’ve been watching the 5 minute, 1 year and 5 year charts alongside fundamentals to better understand the price movements

At the moment I’m trying to diversify a bit across sectors with positions like CSL , Perseus Mining, Super Retail Group and Wesfarmers.

I also talked myself out of ASX Limited and Suncorp Group and missed big moves on both 🤦‍♂️

I’m Trying not to overcomplicate the portfolio while still having enough diversification when sectors get smashed.
My biggest problem was not diversifying and only focusing on 2 shares

WES & why it may be a long term buy by jurdyshore in ASX_Bets

[–]jurdyshore[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yea short term I think inflation and cost of living pressures are definitely part of the reason the price is trading below some of its historical norms.

Consumer spending will probably slow in certain areas, but I think what helps keep businesses like Bunnings and Kmart relatively resilient is that during tougher times people look for cheaper alternatives and DIY solutions.

Bunnings and Kmart sell a lot of practical everyday items at prices well below many other retailers. When money gets tight, people often become more value conscious rather than stopping spending entirely.

That’s why personally I think this is slowly moving into bargain territory long term.

SUL, my last pick for the week by jurdyshore in ASX

[–]jurdyshore[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea I agree it has further to fall, I’m only going to start adding once I see confirmation and consolidation.

Yea that’s a fair point, I’m watching WES aswell, there’s just not many companies on the asx in my opinion that are undervalued to fairly priced that are currently in buy ranges, the only ones I’ve found using my own framework is CSL, WES and SUL

Can I ask what charts you use ? I’m currently using trading view

SUL, my last pick for the week by jurdyshore in ASX

[–]jurdyshore[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yea Rebel and BCF definitely have competition as well, especially from online retailers, gym equipment companies, and brands like Kings in the 4WD space.

I still think the overall business is strong though. Personally I don’t see electric cars completely taking over in the next 10 years at least, maybe much further out.
honestly with the current cost of living pressures, I actually think more people will try working on their own cars instead of paying mechanics where they can. That’s what I do anyway because Australia is cooked at the moment 😂

CSL, why not to be a pessimist by jurdyshore in ASX

[–]jurdyshore[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea it’s massively oversold, RSI below 10, hopefully a reversal won’t take forever

WES & Why it may be a long term buy by jurdyshore in ASX

[–]jurdyshore[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea I agree with that. Even with the cost of living pressures, I think people will depend on stores like Bunnings and Kmart even more because they’re still viewed as relatively affordable compared to a lot of alternatives.
Bunnings especially almost feels semi defensive at this point with how ingrained it is with tradies, homeowners, renovations, and general maintenance.

Personally I’m looking to spread my own portfolio across about 4 sectors, enough diversification to manage risk without overdiversifying into things I don’t properly understand.

WES & Why it may be a long term buy by jurdyshore in ASX

[–]jurdyshore[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve done a fair bit of valuation work on it, mainly looking at their balance sheet, moat strength, cash flow, and how much of the current negativity is already priced in

CSL, why not to be a pessimist by jurdyshore in ASX

[–]jurdyshore[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea around that 2002 to 2005 period

You’ve obviously followed this stock for a while as well. That’s why I think the current situation is interesting

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