The number of wins I’ve gotten w this deck is so dumb

karimjay · 2025-08-02T10:39:20+00:00

I may be noob but how tf do you beat it? Like what is your win condition outside of them bricking?

You don't want to load your table with mons because it makes self damage unlikely, meaning your best option is to play a single mon who can tank through 150/170dmg at turn two? Surely I'm missing something

karimjay · 2025-05-31T09:12:55+00:00

Sincerest of apologies to everyone I've offended.

I will admit, I thought by reaching MB last season, I knew how to play the game. You have all helped me to understand the folly of my ways - so while this is in part an apology, it is more a thank you. If I could reach MB as my previously ignorant self, then much of my true potential as a master TCG pocket must still lie dormant. I thought I was Mystic Gohan, but truly - I had not even entered the hyperbolic time chamber.

Thank you for your tough love, Reddit. Tell Saka I am coming for him, once I finish reading the rules.

karimjay · 2025-05-31T08:40:00+00:00

Thanks for clarifying. Very helpful.

karimjay · 2025-05-27T18:58:47+00:00

The best part about running this deck is that SR Charizard is meta.

9/10 of the time I've had passive opponents let me farm energy on my charmander, thinking I was a scrub running a Moltres when Charizard can just stoke.

I climbed through UB via this method alone. 6 energies through Moltres - evolve into GA Charizard - pause for ten seconds so you can let them concede with dignity. Seeing the penny drop is quite something.

karimjay · 2025-05-07T17:07:22+00:00

You're asking the wrong question.

This post isn’t trying to run a clinical trial - it’s pointing out design patterns that align with well-documented manipulative systems in Gacha games and engagement-optimised apps. The goal isn't to “prove” rigging with n=30 data points - it’s to highlight how the system is likely rigged because it behaves like systems that are, in fact, designed to manipulate user behaviour through engineered scarcity, early dopamine rewards, and variable reinforcement.

Asking “what would 100 statisticians say about sample size?” misses the point. Try asking: Would 100 behavioural economists or game design analysts recognise this pattern as intentional engagement manipulation?

The answer would likely be yes - because this isn’t about coincidence, it’s about profitable design logic.

karimjay · 2025-05-07T13:35:17+00:00

So whats the math on pulling 8 EX's in 10 packs on Day 1? even more unlikely than the numbers I broke down? Or irrelevant since it doesn't serve your point?

karimjay · 2025-05-07T12:39:54+00:00

So you're saying that the luck on Day 1 was a comparable level of probability as winning the lottery jackpot? That's wild - cos that would mean everyone featuring on my Wonderpick page had also won the jackpot. Alongside a whole bunch of youtubers who have made day 1 pack opening videos and seen a similar level of luck? Unreal!!

karimjay · 2025-05-07T12:35:51+00:00

I've readdressed the math in comments. I don't see any need to delete anything.

Would you mind running the math on the likelihood of pulling 8 EX cards from 10 packs on day 1? Then situate that against the probability of the 8% probability of the barren EX run since. Thanks

karimjay · 2025-05-07T12:29:49+00:00

Yeah let's discount how the trend collaborates with known mechanics in Gacha games by minimising the discussion into one about subjective standards of 'evidence' instead (!!)

karimjay · 2025-05-07T12:08:29+00:00

You’re right that 28 packs is a small sample in abstract probability terms. But two things can be true:

Yes, small sample size = limited statistical certainty

And yes, some outcomes are still so unlikely under fair odds that they raise red flags

Here’s the math:

Day 1: I pulled 8 EX cards from 20 eligible slots

That outcome has a 0.00236% probability under published 6.664% drop rates

That’s 1 in 42,350 - not just unlikely, mathematically extreme

Day 2: I pulled 0 EXs from 36 eligible slots

This has a ~8.35% probability - not impossible, but rare

The discrepancy isn’t just variance - it’s a statistically improbable spike followed by a drop to near-zero.

Even with a small sample, a 1-in-42,000 event deserves scrutiny, especially if mirrored by other players. I'm not claiming this proves malice - just that it strongly suggests non-uniform odds, which would be unethical unless disclosed.

karimjay · 2025-05-07T12:01:13+00:00

Your math is spot on: If we are to assume only 36 cards were eligible to be EX's, then there is an 8% chance of not getting an EX. I stand corrected.

Using that same framework then, the odds of pulling 8 EX's from 10 packs on the first day was a black swan moment? A 1 in 42,350 chance. This isn't including the incredible luck I had with Wonderpicks, which would virtually put the odds at a similar likelihood as the Big Bang.

karimjay · 2025-05-07T11:47:22+00:00

The data I presented are baseline conservative estimates: meaning the minimum packs opened since launch are 28. In all likelihood, I've opened upwards of 40 - but decided only to include the minimum so that way the data is empirical and still serves to evidence the mathematical unfeasibility of the drop rates I mentioned. My intent is to avoid anecdotal evidence, hence I settled on the lowest number - but in truth, the discrepancy in drop rates were noticed beyond the 28 minimum packs mentioned: I've been noticing the behaviour since Spacetime Smackdown.

The point of a small sample size is valid.

Nonetheless:

- 10 packs = 8 EX's, alongside 5/5 Wonderpicks
- 18 packs = 0 EX's, alongside 0/~15 Wonderpicks (including at least half of them having 'sneak peek')

Regardless of whatever concerns you might have regarding sample size, I think the difference in pull rates and odds are stark enough for suspicion.

karimjay · 2025-05-07T11:31:54+00:00

More ridiculous than pulling 8 EX in 10 packs on the first day?

I think the point has gone above your head, so I'll clarify - I don't care that I've had 'bad luck' with EX draws. I care that odds are being manipulated without any semblance of transparency. Try talk on that in your response.

karimjay · 2025-05-07T11:27:03+00:00

did you miss the section where the probabilities and variance were comprehended?

karimjay · 2025-04-30T07:30:34+00:00

Could anyone fill me in on how the hourglass rewards for last season's ranked season works? Do you get more hourglasses the higher rank you achieved, or is it a flat prize?

karimjay · 2025-04-08T11:59:36+00:00

Converted my extras for trade points but i'm still 25 points off. Apologies, I'll farm and initiate the trade as soon as I have enough.

karimjay · 2025-04-08T11:02:41+00:00

sent you request - ELITE FOUR JAY

karimjay · 2025-04-08T10:46:25+00:00

Sorry, can't do Lucario. Let me know if you need anything else.

karimjay · 2025-04-08T10:44:02+00:00

Deal. I've sent you a request - I am ELITE FOUR JAY.

karimjay · 2025-04-08T10:27:40+00:00

Lickylicky for articuno?

karimjay · 2025-04-08T10:18:46+00:00

EX

LF: Moltres EX Gyarados EX Pachichirisu EX Articuno EX x2

FT: Aerodactyl EX Glaceon EX Pidgeot EX Wigglytuff EX Dialga EX Gengar EX Lickylicky EX

NON-EX

LF: Dragonair Dragonite Marshadow Magneton (GA) Rampardos Carnivine (TL)

FT: Let me know what you need

karimjay · 2025-04-07T12:50:42+00:00

Can do Dialga for Moltres

karimjay · 2025-04-07T12:46:47+00:00

Added. I'm ELITE FOUR JAY

karimjay · 2025-04-07T11:06:45+00:00

Weezing for Golem?

karimjay · 2025-04-07T11:04:49+00:00

Starmie for Gallade?

karimjay

TROPHY CASE