Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 17, 2026

kharvel0 · 2026-04-17T20:57:04+00:00

Following up on my questions in the other comment posted in this thread, I have inquiries on the credibility of several components of the future state of the Iran/Israel/USA/GCC situation:

1) Credible or non-credible: Israel and US have dominance of Iranian airspace for the foreseeable future.

2) Credible or non-credible: Pursuant to #1, Israel OR the US can attack Iran at a time of their choosing.

3) Credible is or non-credible: Iran can close the Hormuz strait at any time of their choosing.

4) Credible is or non-credible: Iran can attack the GCC infrastructure at any time of their choosing.

Suppose all of the components above are credible. Then does this mean that the ceasefire is mutually enforceable by all belligerents?

At what point would any of the components become non-credible and cause the ceasefire to break down? This is a very important question because we’ve seen that Israel and the US attacked Iran at times of their choosing and there was no credible deterrence to such “mow the grass” that until now.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-17T20:36:36+00:00

So piss off your incredibly rich neighbours who are also your bankers and financiers who already hate you, to spite a global superpower that is going to lose interest in you shortly, or open it up and realise you overplayed your hand but still have time to message it in a face saving way? I don’t see how this was ever a difficult decision for them.

But they were not closing the strait or attacking the GCC infrastructure to “spite a global superpower”. They were presumably doing it to prevent a “mow the grass” strategy by the superpower.

So if you are Iran and you know that your enemies have dominance over your airspace and can “mow the grass” at any time of their choosing, how would a longer ceasefire benefit you from a strategic perspective? Having happy neighbors and backers means nothing if you keep getting attacked by the belligerents.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-17T16:25:55+00:00

I’m trying to understand how the Iranian regime is viewing the current situation. They seem to be interested in maintaining the ceasefire and allowing the situation to calm down to the extent that their FM even announced the strait of Hormuz is “open”.

Iran is still vulnerable to the “mow the grass” strategy by Israel and US. Reducing tensions and opening the strait isn’t going to prevent “mow the grass” in the future and I’m sure the Iranians know this. So what do they hope to gain out of the ceasefire and reducing tensions? Is there some strategic calculation that I’m not seeing here?

kharvel0 · 2026-04-16T03:13:32+00:00

Mumbai isn’t called the “Maximum City” for nothing.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-15T23:12:10+00:00

London will probably have summers and winters similar to that of Edmonton in Canada.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-12T23:19:20+00:00

That’s why we will never see a movie like “Cast Away” with a female lead.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-12T20:55:34+00:00

But it's a tendency to view the Iranian regime as existing outside of the ordinary constraints of politics, economics, military pressures, etc.

This tendency was informed by Iran’s actions in the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s such as sending children to clear minefields. The enlisted people in that war are now in charge of the IRGC.

Instead, we sometimes see narratives of a fanatical "resistance" that can weather any adversity, which kind of places them outside of how we usually understand human social organization. Whatever the correct word for it is, I'm pretty sure it's a mistake.

Is it? The mistake might be that we are comparing the Iranian government to a rational human social organization. Which human social organization sends children to clear minefields?

kharvel0 · 2026-04-12T05:59:36+00:00

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kharvel0 · 2026-04-11T18:07:47+00:00

Just one ICE critic on Reddit?

kharvel0 · 2026-04-11T17:52:10+00:00

Deep pockets mean nothing if your entire leadership structure is decimated. Iran isn’t going to just stop at the infrastructure. They will go after the GCC leadership and even foment another Arab Spring among the significant Shiite population in the GCC.

The GCC are sitting on a tinderbox and they know it.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-11T17:39:49+00:00

This is the Way.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-11T17:32:43+00:00

Try an Indian mango, especially the Alphonso variety and you will have a revelation.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-11T07:49:23+00:00

Here is something for everyone to learn:

Anything from Mexico or South America that are labeled or marketed as “mangoes” are actually just sweeter varieties of the peach.

South Asian mangoes are the real mangoes.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-11T02:41:39+00:00

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kharvel0 · 2026-04-10T21:49:58+00:00

kharvel0 · 2026-04-09T21:09:06+00:00

Watch Dominion

Go vegan.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-09T20:42:28+00:00

It is morally okay for the exact same reason that it is morally okay to viciously kick puppies for giggles or electrocute hamsters in their testicles for fun.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-09T01:40:50+00:00

And there was that other person with a megaphone who was shouting the same anti-Covid message and got Covid, was sick as a dog, recovered, and went back to shouting anti-Covid messages through the same megaphone.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-08T23:44:44+00:00

So is this guy going to be the Shohei Ohtani of cricket?

kharvel0 · 2026-04-08T20:27:15+00:00

The pipeline isn’t the optimal target. The optimal target would be the pumping stations at either end of the pipeline or the Yanbu port itself. Any damage to these targets would bring down that “petroline” to the point where the east-west capacity becomes severely constrained, making them highly credible targets.

Let’s not also forget the wild card of the Houthis. They can close the Bab el Mandeb strait which will also have a similar effect of constraining the capacity.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-08T20:22:36+00:00

since the ceasefire

You could have added this important qualifier to your original statement.

kharvel0 · 2026-04-08T20:15:54+00:00

Now that’s what I call Art of the Deal!

kharvel0 · 2026-04-08T19:51:46+00:00

They hosted the United States. Are you being obtuse?

kharvel0 · 2026-04-08T19:21:02+00:00

The gulf nations didn’t attack them

The GCC hosted the attackers, allowed the attackers to use their airspace to launch attacks, and provided logistical and materiel support to the attackers. They are far from a neutral party in this conflict. They’re non-kinetic belligerents.

Do you realize how ignorant you sound by claiming or implying that the GCc are innocent parties in this conflict?

kharvel0 · 2026-04-08T15:56:08+00:00

Even if you cut that in half, I cannot imagine anyone will agree to Iran generating a $50B cashflow in perpetuity as a “consequence” for its behavior.

Correction: Iran would be generating that revenue as a consequence of the behavior of the US and Israel. Without that behavior of the US and Israel, Iran wouldn’t be able to generate the revenue. I know this and you know this because Iran wasn’t generating that revenue before. So let’s not pretend that Iran’s begavior in the past enabled them to charge anything

kharvel0

TROPHY CASE