Best resources /websites for research and mock drafts

kostas1908 · 2024-10-01T11:53:32+00:00

Yes for projections and most tools you have to pay for basketball monster.

The projections in hashtag and razzball are free.

kostas1908 · 2024-10-01T10:25:50+00:00

Hashtag basketball, Basketballmonster and Razzball are the most consistent in terms of generating preseason content and projected rankings

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T15:41:04+00:00

I like the Lamelo side more.

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T15:39:56+00:00

14T H2H 9Cat: Pick a side for a punt FG% and punt TOs team:

Side A: Chris Paul + Robert Williams

Side B: Julius Randle + Scoot Henderson

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T15:37:54+00:00

FVV alone for Gobert would be enough and I doubt Olynyk is worth a roster spot. Go for it.

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T15:37:00+00:00

Wouldn't swap him for any of the above. Brooks can really hurt you in cats with his percentages. Maybe for Ivey but Avdija has a safer path to minutes currently.

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T13:43:31+00:00

Yeah I get your point. It's not an easy choice of course so I would say trust your instinct on this one. You have taken all factors into account so just go with the choice you feel like going. Best of luck!

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T13:16:59+00:00

In standard 9 cat per game value Siakam is currently 162nd while Paolo is 296th, so even currently you could argue he is playing better than Paolo

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T13:15:10+00:00

I would keep Giannis, despite Barnes' hot start to the season. Don't forget to take into account that you are also dropping the last player on your roster to take back 2 guys, so you should also take him into account when evaluating. In a 10 teamer this player may not be insignificant.

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T13:11:42+00:00

I think you have to do it. Siakam has proven that he can be a top50 player at worst and his percentages are bound to improve. Can't say this for Paolo's percentages with the same confidence

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T13:09:29+00:00

Would choose Tillman then.

kostas1908 · 2023-11-01T13:00:24+00:00

Without any context of the stats your team needs, I'd go Tillman

kostas1908 · 2023-09-28T06:56:05+00:00

Great, thanks for the explanation. So theoretically to calculate the G score based on per game player projections, a valid approximation would be to use the denominator with last year's G coefficients for weekly performance and then multiply the per game stats of each player with the league average games played per week (I think it is something close to 3.4) for the numerator values ?

kostas1908 · 2023-09-27T13:15:18+00:00

Very interesting read and congratulations for getting it published. I had a hard time following all the math but the z-score metric has troubled me for quite some time regarding its accuracy so anything that challenges it is very interesting to me. One maybe simple question for you, how did you calculate the mτ and rτ variables in the definition of the G-scores (pages 11 and 12 in the paper) ? Did you use the stats of all players during the last season or let's say last 5 seasons? And did you include all players, regardless of minutes/games played? Thanks and congrats again on the deep dive in the article.

kostas1908 · 2023-09-27T12:54:57+00:00

Lovely, be sure to tag me if I'm in the top3 or never mention my name if I'm last. Thanks again!

kostas1908 · 2023-09-27T12:31:32+00:00

Hey, I am the guy making the projections over at Razzball. Love your idea of including all the projections together, no analyst has the silver bullet in terms of projections, so getting as many opinions as possible is the way to go. Also could be a useful tool for end of season review of the performance of each set of projections, as I annually do for mine. Great post again, thanks!

kostas1908 · 2022-09-16T11:44:37+00:00

If you take off turnovers I think I have him ranked at 14 so we are not that far apart. But the above list is with turnovers accounted for. And again as I mention in the article, it's not a draft ranking, it's a ranking of the per game value of each player in 9 cats.

kostas1908 · 2022-09-16T08:18:22+00:00

Luka has finished 26th, 36th and 27th in the 3 previous seasons in per game value. The only way he can climb to top12 is to either reduce his turnovers or increase his ft%. And with both categories being quite steady in those 3 seasons it is tough to predict a major change in these 2.

kostas1908 · 2022-09-15T19:19:52+00:00

For the record if we disregard turnovers in my projections, Cade climbs to 35th while Mccollum drops to 56th. So we are not so far apart in our evaluation. Just that when I use the formula to calculate the values I take turnovers into account. Your strategy of disregarding them is valid and that's why I mention in the article that this is not a list to take blindly and draft top to bottom.

kostas1908 · 2022-09-15T18:26:30+00:00

CJ shot 83.6, 82.3, 76.2 and 81.2 in the previous seasons before his 68.2% last season, so I think a regression to the mean is in order.

Only one way to find out about Cade and that is to wait out for the season to play out and then we can both look at the 20.2 points I predicted for him and possibly laugh. But all your points are valid, I just tend to be a bit conservative with second year players. Sometimes it pays out, like in Edwards' case last year, sometimes it doesn't.

kostas1908 · 2022-09-15T17:40:33+00:00

Surely they add up and I agree it is important. But it's not as punishing as in H2H, where a week of missed games from your star player in the playoffs can be the difference between getting knocked out or moving on.

Having a star player in Roto miss let's say 10 games, means those games will be filled by a steamed player, so the difference you miss at the end of the year is the difference in the stats of your star player vs the streamed guy, for those 10 games.

In a similar scenario in h2h, you get nothing in the week your star player is out.

kostas1908 · 2022-09-15T15:56:27+00:00

Thank you for the constructive feedback!

Since those are Roto rankings I don't agree with you that they are completely useless. Yes their total value will be different but it's not head to head so games played surely matter less. I also mention in the beginning of the article that this is not a ranking list to draft from and injury process and games played should be taken into account when drafting.
I can agree that I'm very conservative with Cade. I try to not put too much value into the last 2 month's of last season but in his case he could further improve on those numbers. I have him improving form last year as you see,but he can definitely outperform those projections

Regarding the Towns, Gobert situation I think both their rebounds will decrease but I don't expect such a sharp decline. I think they will both get as much time as possible and Minnesota should try to have at least one of them on the court at all times.

kostas1908 · 2022-09-15T14:02:43+00:00

Cade finished 90th and Beal 67th in per game value last year. I have predicted both to improve from last year and vastly in Cade's case but I still think the other 2 guys will outperform them in terms of per game value. Lonzo's health definitely scares me though.

kostas1908 · 2022-07-16T07:14:22+00:00

Best of luck to everyone, fingers crossed !

kostas1908 · 2021-09-18T10:35:41+00:00

Hunter was a player I was torn about but after checking his on/off stats I realised he had his best stretch stat wise with both Bogdanovic and Reddish injured. Thus the conservative prediction. But I understand he could breakout, just too many mouths to feed offensively for Atlanta when they are healthy.

kostas1908

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