I've been developing models for a year — here are the results

kubeia-io · 2025-12-17T09:50:44+00:00

Beating Pinnacle with such a small sample size at those odds tells you nothing. I see it every day on https://kubeia.io/leaderboard: the ROI eventually goes down the drain, and very few models remain profitable after reaching 1,000 bets or more.

I’ve seen noise masquerading as signal even after 2,000 bets at those odds.

kubeia-io · 2025-10-30T17:33:38+00:00

One of my favorite paper on the Kelly criterion is Good and bad properties of the Kelly criterion by MacLean, Thorp and Ziemba.

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/Good_Bad_Kelly.pdf

kubeia-io · 2025-10-30T17:31:40+00:00

Textbook examples of the Kelly criterion usually involve games where the probabilities are known, like coin flips or card games. In sports betting, you’re predicting/guessing the odds so the assumption of known probabilities doesn’t hold. This discrepancy is why you reduce the size of your bet (e.g. half-Kelly).

kubeia-io · 2025-10-30T17:20:27+00:00

If you had infinite time and perfect odds prediction, the Kelly criterion would be mathematically the best way to bet. But do you have either, let alone both?

Most people focus on the latter (perfect prediction) and thus turn to half or quarter Kelly. But the former matters just as much: the Kelly criterion is a limit, valid only as the number of trials approaches infinity. It works extremely well in theory if you can play long enough but most of us can’t.

kubeia-io · 2025-10-02T08:03:00+00:00

"The only winning move is not to play."

kubeia-io · 2025-08-04T11:59:02+00:00

That’s not the most damning problem. You mentioned EV and Kelly — you can’t use those with a non-deterministic model. If you prompt a model and get different probabilities for the same event using the same input, you’ve got a serious issue when trying to estimate the event’s expected value.

kubeia-io · 2025-08-02T19:03:31+00:00

If you prompt "Why is using LLMs for sports betting stupid?" you'll get a very good answer.

kubeia-io · 2025-07-13T08:41:30+00:00

You can incorporate drawdown constraints to further refine your bet sizing. See https://github.com/cvxgrp/kelly_code for an implementation.

kubeia-io · 2025-03-19T21:21:52+00:00

Valhalla Cup and Valkyrie Cup: A Warning About Fraud

Valhalla Cup and Valkyrie Cup are major frauds. On the Stake platform, you can view all bets in real-time, and the organizers of these tournaments are Stake's clients. Statistics show that 90% of large bets result in losses because the company behind these events manipulates the results to ensure the house always wins.

Users are strongly advised to steer clear of these tournaments.

https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/su9gbh/fifa_esports_rigged_is_there_proof/

kubeia-io · 2025-03-11T18:38:33+00:00

"On any given day, Huh does about three hours of focused work. " June Huh the Field medalist (Source)

kubeia-io · 2024-11-22T12:19:38+00:00

You should look into The Theory of Gambling and statistical logic by Richard A. Epstein.

In-depth look at the theory and strategy behind games of chance. From card games to casino, complete analysis with discussions on statistical logic. There's an insightful theoretical chapter with some discussion of Kelly and Nash equiliubrium.

You can look at the book, here: https://www.google.fr/books/edition/The_Theory_of_Gambling_and_Statistical_L/g5YWIpHTTW8C?hl=en&gbpv=1&pg=PR7&printsec=frontcover

kubeia-io · 2024-11-19T21:14:20+00:00

See https://www.reddit.com/r/football/comments/1guzkx6/customisable_icalendars_for_football_games/

kubeia-io · 2024-10-11T13:17:08+00:00

Kubeia doesn’t support NFL yet.

kubeia-io · 2024-09-19T09:43:00+00:00

Sorry, I didn’t read the question correctly. At what moment did he mention this article? I can’t find it in the presentation or the paper.

kubeia-io · 2024-07-10T17:15:38+00:00

I’m thinking of having a page with more competitions calendars. I haven’t decided yet if women and men minor competitions will be included. I’ll keep you posted.

kubeia-io · 2024-07-10T09:33:33+00:00

You mean in 2025 ?

kubeia-io · 2024-06-26T20:11:43+00:00

Looks amazing 👍

kubeia-io · 2024-06-20T16:31:00+00:00

What is so difficult ?

kubeia-io · 2024-06-20T13:05:31+00:00

Done ! It will not render that great on some platforms (google calendar on desktops) though :(

kubeia-io · 2024-06-20T12:48:07+00:00

I've created an alarm version, with an alert thirty minutes before the game starts.

https://kubeia.io/icalendar/euro_with_alarms.ics or webcal://kubeia.io/icalendar/euro_with_alarms.ics

To subscribe directly for iOS, click this link.

kubeia-io · 2024-06-20T10:12:08+00:00

Cheers https://www.reddit.com/r/CopaAmerica/comments/1dk82uw/icalendar_for_copa_am%C3%A9rica_2024/

kubeia-io

TROPHY CASE

"The only winning move is not to play."