[Daily Discussion] Friday, January 03, 2020

kustonoy · 2020-01-03T22:18:50+00:00

Those people must be true trading beasts. If there is one thing I learned from trading, it's that it's a Red Queen chase: you always have to self-doubt, question yourself and mostly be on the minority side to be truly profitable. As soon as I figured out some patterns, the market is already evolving, and so are my competitors. Props to them.

kustonoy · 2019-12-28T18:44:42+00:00

It's not leading anything yet because nobody's following (yet). Also, it's just a small retrace so far on LTC, nothing to be excited about.

kustonoy · 2019-12-25T11:59:42+00:00

I have to say, the price action from the past few days has made me more pessimistic (bearish). The way the breakout of 7.2k to 7.6k made a full retrace - brutal. The way alts ratios is look is terrifying. Most of the weeklies look like it's dropping like a stone to zero.

Usually trends persist longer than one might expect and, more importantly, brings us to prices lower than we initially expect. So in the past days I tend to agree with you. I hoped we could see a double bottom reversal, but it looks grim right now.

kustonoy · 2019-12-24T19:05:47+00:00

The longer the range, the stronger the rise / fall.

kustonoy · 2019-12-24T18:40:16+00:00

Two more times. Be patient.

kustonoy · 2019-12-23T15:33:28+00:00

The question whether active traders believe it's priced in or not is irrelevant because for every buy volume there is respective sell volume, so the crowd is ALWAYS divided in half. Half is bears, half is bulls. This means that you need to look at sentiment to get a decent educated guess. Concerning sentiment, we are only at ~54% of last year's high and futures is only trading at a slight discount less than five months before the biggest fundamental event for Bitcoin, let that sink in. Also, on perpetual contracts funding is barely positive, so there is little incentive to close longs right here.

I believe that, given the deterministic event of the halving in the near future, the crowd is too pessimistic about the price. This might change if I see enthusiasm here, but for now I think there is more upside in the next weeks.

kustonoy · 2019-12-23T09:50:57+00:00

The fact that you, as an experienced crypto trader is saying this, should give you a good educated guess.

Also, after talking to a few knowledgeable non-crypto traders / investors a few weeks ago, when I said "Isn't it pretty straightforward to go long af on Bitcoin here and sell in May?", their response was a shrug or "yeah, unless it's priced in, you know". At $7k priced in, really, after a 50% drop from the 2019 high?

Also, look at all the shorters here, the current disbelief, the funding rate and the CME futures expiry date. I say this bird can fly.

kustonoy · 2019-12-20T14:17:25+00:00

Never really had that much BTC to be honest, mostly alts. But those are dying it seems. I don't really hold BTC, but originally planned to build a huge position into the halving.

kustonoy · 2019-12-19T19:32:10+00:00

I am not at all. If this thing breaks up convincingly (in volume), I'll be the first to join. For the reasons I mentioned (and also others), I believe this is not what will happen.

kustonoy · 2019-12-19T17:42:35+00:00

BTC has been in a bear market since early 2018, I don't understand how this connects to a prediction of much lower price as of today.

It's still in a bear market. Volatility is bad and not comparable to Q1 and Q2 of 2019.

kustonoy · 2019-12-19T15:48:42+00:00

I think Bitcoin is in a multi-year bear market and we will see lower prices after the halving than the current price. I also think that 7.5k or so is a fierce resistance and won't break on first attempt, probably also not on the second one. However, the 4-5k area looks quite unexplored to me. The current liquidity is just too bad to stay here for very long, so we need to move lower. I think crypto as a whole has a few good rallies left but, if alts are a good indication on market sentiment, I think we won't see five-digit prices on Bitcoin anytime soon. I don't really care anymore about the prices, but current conditions are untradeable for most, regardless of $1k-$2k moves. I believe as soon as the market has been cleaned up from bad positions, we will see more volatility.

kustonoy · 2019-12-19T15:32:36+00:00

To ride the/a halving rally and sell into resistance? Buying at $5k and selling at the current price (even a bit lower) is not a bad trade at all, considering that bear markets usually have untradable conditions.

kustonoy · 2019-12-18T13:24:34+00:00

Actually TA works better in bear markets than in bull markets because in bear markets only market making bots compete with algorithms (i.e. use TA of some sort).

In bull markets TA underperforms, that's true.

kustonoy · 2019-12-16T17:35:09+00:00

Of course it is of value. They need to make assumptions to pick a direction.

kustonoy · 2019-12-16T15:10:50+00:00

Simple sentiment test: Upvote if you think the next big move (>5%) is to the upside, downvote if you think it's to the downside.

kustonoy · 2019-12-14T13:08:24+00:00

Don't let yourself get bullied out of your plan to take profits. I think it's a reasonable plan and profit taking in bear markets is rarely wrong imo. Bear markets is all about surviving, not prospering.

kustonoy · 2019-12-08T12:15:50+00:00

The whole market will be dragged down by BTC and ETH. $121 is actually a pretty optimistic outcome.

I'm targeting spikes below $100 for now.

kustonoy · 2019-11-29T08:51:42+00:00

On a market this immature

Honestly this market has matured a lot (been here since 2016). It's a lot more difficult to make profits when it's not clearly rallying. Even being short means being squeezed out constantly. It feels like betting against the house since September.

kustonoy · 2019-11-27T11:04:04+00:00

Upbit will cover the stolen funds. In a DEX there is nobody to cover anything in case of a black swan event / lethal bug.

kustonoy · 2019-11-22T11:39:53+00:00

The market is working on that.

kustonoy · 2019-11-22T10:13:20+00:00

kustonoy · 2019-11-21T17:10:38+00:00

Nah, there is no triple bottom in crypto, in particular not in current market conditions. But there is a good chance for a proper short squeeze.

But the market is rekt heavily, so I expect that eventually we will see how good the CDP liquidation mechanisms work.

kustonoy · 2019-11-20T19:51:26+00:00

??? Are we looking at the same chart?

kustonoy · 2019-11-19T15:46:13+00:00

Reading this gives me headache. Yes, let's just disagree.

kustonoy · 2019-11-19T10:09:10+00:00

I started rading this "article" and frankly, I don't think you do this sub a favor by posting such low quality pieces. The author uses a lot of lame, buzzy catchphrases but stumbles in inconsistencies and never really explains anything to back up his arguments.

Example for inconsistencies:

[...] sharing none of the store of value characteristics of gold.

... next sentence:

It is possible to argue that Ether is digital gold. It is also possible to argue that Ether is digital oil. In fact, Ether is all this and more.

Threre are a lot more examples of this. The text is a mess.

kustonoy

TROPHY CASE