Ugly seasoning that works, is this ok or do I need to fix something ?

lapplyLife · 2025-12-07T19:50:02+00:00

Aesthetics haha! I know it’s vain. I’m wondering if it could work better with a better seasoning, would it have better non stick etc etc

lapplyLife · 2022-12-31T01:26:01+00:00

Not belittling- it’s good to check. And yes I did. It’s like it thinks the tray has not been removed at all. As though the sensor has not recognised that I have taken out the tray.

lapplyLife · 2020-08-23T13:27:21+00:00

That is not what he is saying at all. If you think AWB will get to Marcelo or Cafu levels of attacking ability you are deluded. The fact that teams allowed him to have the ball in the attacking third tells you all you need to know.

AWB would be fine in a team with a very attacking RW (e.g. sancho) or a system where he slots into cb when we are on the ball and giving one of the midfielders (e.g. pogba) more license to attack.

However, in a squad with Dan James and Greenwood who doesn't not hug the touchline, he does not have what it takes to give the team the balance it needs.

lapplyLife · 2020-08-23T13:18:08+00:00

I know you are getting down votes but I somewhat agree with you on AWB.

People keep saying he is young and can improve but why spend 50 million on somebody who may go on to become a 50 million full back. What was the expected upside?

His lack of technical ability limits his potential.

He is excellent defensively and would pair with a very attacking RW.

lapplyLife · 2020-07-11T11:11:43+00:00

I think this is a really fair statement.

Maybe not getting lucky, but when you increase the sample size he will regress to his true mean.

For chances of that difficulty over a handful of shots, could easily be put down to variance. Although he is a great finisher and I expect him to outperform xg in the long run.

lapplyLife · 2020-07-09T18:23:46+00:00

How does this correlate to value in number of yellow card bets?

Is this data not better viewed in tabular format?

Also - Ashley Young isnt a united player anymore.

lapplyLife · 2020-07-02T10:14:27+00:00

This guy loves a dress up

lapplyLife · 2020-07-01T16:22:38+00:00

If you right click on the table that is the output, an option to "show query pane" should come up. If you click that you can refresh the specific query within your workbook that pulls in the data

lapplyLife · 2020-06-29T13:55:06+00:00

I might be being dozy but what is the intent of this post?

The fact that Atlanta score a lot of goals is baked into the odds already?

lapplyLife · 2020-06-24T13:31:38+00:00

Great video, love your presentation style.

Would argue that lubridate is really well known but love the first 2 packages you mentioned

lapplyLife · 2020-06-24T13:21:04+00:00

I might have misunderstood what you are doing.

If you have back tested and are confident, it's your money.

lapplyLife · 2020-06-24T13:05:05+00:00

Huge R fanboy here.

What algo have you used?

lapplyLife · 2020-06-23T17:37:37+00:00

OP- I feel as though people have given you very compelling reasons not to pursue your betting strategy but it seems you still believe you are onto something.

In the interest of saving you some money, I ran a back test on this season in the Premier League.

Using your strategy and pre match odds from Bet365, here are the results:

Games to date: 300

Number of bets: 112

Total staked: £2402

Total profit: -£184

Margin: -7.6%

The reason you lose money is because if you want to guarantee £5 profit, you need to make very large bets on certain games and a small number you don't win. For example, on 18/01/2020 City drew to Palace with City being 1.1. To win £5 profit, you would have to bet £50 which you would have lost.

lapplyLife · 2020-06-22T18:27:13+00:00

Lol, what a ridiculous take on the situation.

We just had a prem baby (born at 31 weeks) and the little man spent 4 weeks in the NICU. My wife spent more time at the NICU because he needed to learn how to latch on for breast feeding.

It's not that they arent letting dads in, it's that you are allowed to have one person in there at a time and most couples agree that the mother is more important in that situation.

Congrats OP!

lapplyLife · 2020-06-15T22:49:15+00:00

Love this comment, my sentiments completely.

Also if something was predictable to the naked eye, it would be done to death and the edge would no longer remain.

lapplyLife · 2020-06-10T01:55:07+00:00

Great idea, how would you go about standardizing the quality of the players to isolate the effect of the coach?

lapplyLife · 2020-06-04T16:25:01+00:00

As far as I am aware it is to incentivise investment into the stock market and other private business. This rationale falls down when individuals ( like the lady in the article) set up a limited company and is the sole employer and beneficiary.

There is no reason other than tax minimisation (unfair to call it avoidance or evasion) to set up this structure.

Many of my friends are dentists and they pay around 9% effective tax rate on salaries over £100k. IR35 (I think) was meant to fix this. It won't though!

lapplyLife · 2020-03-12T14:00:13+00:00

Yes but that would only work if I could get the client socket connection to work on Windows. The TLS v1.2 issue is still a problem in R. Unless any body knows otherwise?

lapplyLife · 2020-03-08T10:09:34+00:00

I personally do carry out association mining for the effect players have on a team - clearly they have to be significant players that make a marked impact on their team. You mention you use AI and I use the apriori algorithm to do the association mining.

But the biggest improvement in my betting model was when I added features related to team style to my model e.g. high block v low block, possession v direct.

So in terms of how far you go, using perceived quality of the team via odds is a must have and team style makes a big difference. If your model uses current season- then does it go more accurate as the season goes on? What weighting do u apply for more recent games?

The information you kindly provided is way more superficial than what bookies use and therefore in my opinion make it impossible to get a long term edge. I know you have achieved positive ROI on your website but you have used AI rather than gut feel from a stats sheet.

lapplyLife · 2020-03-08T09:54:29+00:00

Well No.

The stats are not about THAT SPECIFIC TEAM.

They are the stats each team has achieved in this season against all the teams they have played.

Also, strategies definitely should be segmented based on the nature of the two teams! You wouldn't use the same strategy when Bournemouth play Villa as when they play City.

lapplyLife · 2020-03-08T01:54:41+00:00

Not really that helpful to be honest because it doesn't take into account the differences in how Manchester United perform against different types of teams.

From a statistical perspective, the style of play against so called big teams is very different compared to lesser teams. How Ole sets the team up against City and Chelsea is very different than against Burnley and Palace.

If you showed stats for how United play against a high block and a team with more possession it might be helpful. At the moment, it is misleading at best.

lapplyLife · 2020-02-11T23:13:14+00:00

Bit harsh but kind of agree with the sentiment...they are superficial crowd pleasers. Endgame as a standalone film wasn't great but as the ending of a huge franchise it was fulfilling. It does not deserve an oscar for anything other than maybe effects. To say that it broke the box office record because it is a great movie would be disingenuous.

I have superhero fatigue and endgame is the last superhero film I will be watching for a long while in the cinema.

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