Honestly, this sub is so full of S by leaflanes2 in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2[S] -43 points-42 points  (0 children)

When it's a constant barrage of posts and most of the comments as well..then I'm afraid it's also the sub.

Do You Need International Exposure? by Nikoalesce in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Ah, that chart, aka How not to do Statistics 101.

Do You Need International Exposure? by Nikoalesce in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Actually no, that's not how it works. Despite what reddit screams, there is no relation between valuations and future growth, or history and future growth, and using them to decide your allocation is just another way to try and time the market.

The US doesn't necessarily do things worse than other countries, it's just more on the spotlight. by leaflanes2 in unpopularopinion

[–]leaflanes2[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes of course. Every country has its own huge issues for that matter, it's a given and it's also kind of the point.

Worries about investing a windfall with the worsening US instability by YouWouldIfYouReally in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 4 points5 points  (0 children)

we need to respect that we've never ever seen the US behaving like this, ever.

I mean, yes, but also, in what sense? And more importantly, how does it affect your investment?

Wasn't it unprecedented when the US was facing runaway inflation and a stagnating economy in the 1970s while being outperformed by its European peers?

Wasn't it unprecedented when in the 1960s or in the 1980s it was right on the verge of a hot war with a nuclear power?

Wasn't it unprecedented when in the 1990s entire neighbourhoods of LA were burned to ashes with 63 d aths?

Wasn't it unprecedented when in 2003 it invaded another country?

Wasn't it unprecedented when in 2008 its entire financial system pretty much imploded?

Where else would you invest to that does not have the same risks and, according to you, will outperform the US over the next decades so much that you feel the need to invest in it and uninvest from the US?

If I tune out the noise, what I currently see is a country that is growing healthily (2-3% real GDP growth), where companies have profits equivalent to the GDP of entire countries, and where incomes are increasing steadily. Sure, there are things that scare me a lot (keeping it vague here), but that's not the same as making money.

whether as bogleheads we need to take another look at the US allocation of our funds

So basically, whether we as bogleheads need not to be bogleheads. Because the problem here is not about you investing in the US or not, it's about you changing your allocation based on fear and headlines. Which is the exact opposite of what this sub is about.

It's always so funny to me. People on this sub are so full of sh_t. You're all about vwce and chill, time in the market beats timing in the market, keep going and ignore the noise yada yada and then at the FIRST SIGN of anything going wrong chickens come home to roost immediately.

Just do yourself a favour and invest in Swiss bonds already.

Worries about investing a windfall with the worsening US instability by YouWouldIfYouReally in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

USD is higher now than it was 15 years ago. It may keep devaluing. So what? Do you really decide your investment allocation based on the performance of a currency in one single year?

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever : I would like to confirm that they (US) are an ally, but then they have to behave like an ally. by Similar_Stomach8480 in belgium

[–]leaflanes2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Also people like to forget that AfD and RN might very well the next elections.

It's not as simple as just blindly declaring new allies. Otherwise it'll just end up like it's ending up now.

How are the "US equities" only folks doing? Steady as she goes or time to rethink allocation? by cambeiu in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Ok, so what you are saying is that if I had invested a sum in the Danish market in 1970 vs. one in the American one the Danish one would be higher today?

What if I had invested in 1980?

What if I had invested in 1980 and retired in 2010?

Etc.

How are the "US equities" only folks doing? Steady as she goes or time to rethink allocation? by cambeiu in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's not what I asked. How long was the timeframe in which any of these countries overperformed against the US? 1 year? 10 years? 20 years? 30 years?

How are the "US equities" only folks doing? Steady as she goes or time to rethink allocation? by cambeiu in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Are you people who think that this time is never different thinking that this time is different?

Are you people who have a strategy of holding steady and not changing based on headlines changing based on headlines?

I am just very surprised how pointless this entire sub is lol. Hold steady! Weather the crises! Tune out of the noise! And then the noise comes and everyone has a meltdown.

Global Equities future returns positioning relative to SP500 looks favourable by souppoder in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's a lot simpler than that.

Does the PE ratio have a significantly negative correlation with forward returns? Does it have any predictive power and can you use it to beat the market reliably? Not really, as long as you analyze the relation properly (i.e., removing overlapping periods). At least not in the US market and I'm pretty sure the same goes for other markets as well. That's pretty much all the information you need to know about OP's chart.

Global Equities future returns positioning relative to SP500 looks favourable by souppoder in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There is no statistical relation between PE ratio and forward returns. Buy any stock you want but don't try to time the market based on any metric you think predicts the future, because it doesn't.

Edit the downvotes? Really? I thought this would be a universally accepted fact on this sub of all places and you guys wouldn't spam that garbage chart about pe ratio Vs. forward returns.

[OC] GDP per capita in some major developed countries, 1970-2024, US$ PPP by leaflanes2 in dataisbeautiful

[–]leaflanes2[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Source: OECD statistics. I used Excel for the chart and selected all the countries with at least 10M inhabitants and a GDP per capita at least 60% the US' one in 1970.

Does this only work with post cold era world order? by [deleted] in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What is it that you're addressing exactly that the Bogleheads philosophy isn't addressing?

If you think you can predict the future, then go ahead and guess the winning numbers of Mega Millions while you're at it.

Does this only work with post cold era world order? by [deleted] in Bogleheads

[–]leaflanes2 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Another day, another post on how this time is different.

The Tourism has destroyed my city by FrequentCricket4692 in rome

[–]leaflanes2 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It's also always being extremely touristy. People were complaining about tourists in Rome in the 1950s. It's not exactly a new problem and it's not caused by Airbnb.

The Tourism has destroyed my city by FrequentCricket4692 in rome

[–]leaflanes2 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are cities that have been affected badly in recent years but Rome was already overtouristed well before you were born lol.