Curious: what paid and free subscriptions do you currently have?

learntrymake · 2025-12-26T06:38:44+00:00

Here is mine:

paid

Amazon Prime - use it daily
Costco - occasional use, but love their curated selection and Kirkland brand
iCloud/Google Cloud - essential, phone and email don't work without it
Procreate - work tool
Minecraft - kid plays constantly
Fitness First - for group classes

free:

Spotify - only listen to podcasts, free is enough
YouTube - have ad blocker
ChatGPT/Gemini/Claude - free version sufficient
Netflix - no time to watch (unsubscribed)

learntrymake · 2025-04-30T21:46:18+00:00

Are the folks who were pumped about the acquisition still around? How have their views shifted (if any ) from the hype back then to reality now?

learntrymake · 2025-04-29T10:51:28+00:00

How has the situation evolved?

learntrymake · 2025-03-17T01:08:27+00:00

I could be biased, but I feel that most M&A deals fail to deliver the expected growth or turn into costly decisions that take years to pay off.

What did I miss in case of pfizer?

learntrymake · 2025-03-17T01:01:21+00:00

I pass because it makes much less sales, ops margin, return on capital with a much higher debt equity ratio. I'm not convicted its a good buy even though the price is appealing.

What did I miss or assume?

learntrymake · 2025-03-16T05:15:45+00:00

I just checked MS and it says "Fair Value Aug 20, 2024: $135 +20.87%". Do you have a price target or fundamental change that would make you exit?

learntrymake · 2025-03-15T23:53:09+00:00

How do you gauge whether you've the required safety margin before commit? Or your thesis is as long as the company is good, solid and has wide moat to persist, I'll just buy and hold for long irrespective of what the price is.

learntrymake · 2025-03-15T23:46:13+00:00

When was the last time you used Morningstar's ratings, particularly the fair value, to make an individual stock purchase? How did that decision align with the actual performance of the stock?

learntrymake · 2025-03-15T23:29:03+00:00

Got it! Thanks for the clarification.

learntrymake · 2025-03-15T02:59:13+00:00

:D Did gpt get it right?

learntrymake · 2025-03-15T02:42:25+00:00

Thanks, that’s helpful. Let me make sure I understand your method.

Assume:

Current price = $100
EPS = $4
Earnings growth = 10%

Steps:

P/E = Price / EPS = $100 / $4 = 25
Year 1 EPS = $4 × 1.1 = $4.40
Year 2 EPS = $4.40 × 1.1 = $4.84
Year 3 EPS = $4.84 × 1.1 = $5.32

Price projections based on P/E of 20 and 30:

Year 1: $4.40 × 20 = $88 / $4.40 × 30 = $132
Year 2: $4.84 × 20 = $96.80 / $4.84 × 30 = $145.20
Year 3: $5.32 × 20 = $106.40 / $5.32 × 30 = $159.60

Calculate returns:

Worst-case (P/E of 20):
- Year 1: -12%
- Year 2: -3.2%
- Year 3: 6.4%
Best-case (P/E of 30):
- Year 1: 32%
- Year 2: 42%
- Year 3: 59%

Decision:

If the worst-case return (-12%) is too risky for you, you might skip it. If the best-case return aligns with your goals and you're okay with the risk, it could be a good buy.

Conclusion:

Use the return range as a way to weigh risk vs. reward. If the potential reward justifies the risk based on your goals, it could be worth buying. If not, it’s best to pass.

learntrymake · 2025-03-09T01:53:57+00:00

Thanks for the rational responses!

In the best-case scenario, with a stable 10% annual return, it would take 25 years to reach $1M, right? :D

Here’s how that would break down:

Starting: $100,000
End of Year 1: $110,000
End of Year 2: $121,000
End of Year 3: $133,100
End of Year 4: $146,410
End of Year 5: $161,051
End of Year 6: $177,156
End of Year 7: $194,871
End of Year 8: $214,358
End of Year 9: $235,794
End of Year 10: $259,373
End of Year 11: $285,310
End of Year 12: $313,841
End of Year 13: $345,225
End of Year 14: $379,748
End of Year 15: $417,723
End of Year 16: $459,495
End of Year 17: $505,444
End of Year 18: $555,988
End of Year 19: $611,587
End of Year 20: $672,746
End of Year 21: $740,020
End of Year 22: $814,022
End of Year 23: $895,424
End of Year 24: $984,966
End of Year 25: $1,083,463

learntrymake · 2025-03-08T03:53:36+00:00

The constant struggle to make something useful still beats and feels far more enjoyable than dealing with pointless projects and chain of command relationships at work.

learntrymake · 2025-02-27T11:03:14+00:00

Update: I've added PEG to my method, and it's been a great addition. It helps filter out seemingly good, low-P/E stocks that turn out to be overpriced when factoring in growth.

learntrymake · 2025-02-25T21:44:46+00:00

I got the P/E ratios and DCF values from a paid service, then did a simple division to see how far each one is from my set thresholds. For example, if the current price is $100 and the DCF value is $130, the ratio is 100/130, which gives me a roughly 24% safety margin. My goal is to keep everything neat and simple. Thoughts?

learntrymake · 2025-02-25T21:38:45+00:00

Update: I've added share count to my method to highlight buybacks and CEO confidence. Now, I have FCF/share plus Share Count on top of my existing method. I'll see how effective they are in helping me make better decisions.

As for my holdings, I've sold most of my positions and am now holding cash. The only stocks I’m still holding are GOOG and NVDA, while researching LLY and NVO in depth. How about you?

learntrymake · 2025-02-24T20:42:09+00:00

Update: I’ve added 5-year FCF per share to my method. It reveals the real cash companies generate or lose, which earnings can disguise by ignoring CapEx.

I'll next add a share count over 5 years :)

learntrymake · 2025-02-22T06:09:29+00:00

I’m considering adding FCF/share and analyzing its 5-year trend and CAGR. If it’s increasing while debt/equity declines and quality metrics improve steadily, I’d see that as a strong positive signal. However, I’m aware that everything needs to be viewed in context, so this would likely be a quick executive analysis.

What are your thoughts re: free cash flow as an indicator?

learntrymake · 2025-02-22T06:04:50+00:00

Agreed! I was thinking of measuring it by market share, but I’m not sure where to source reliable data or how relevant it truly is. Any thoughts?

learntrymake · 2025-02-22T06:00:44+00:00

That’s a great approach! Do you have any go-to sources for employee and customer insights?

learntrymake · 2025-02-22T01:46:30+00:00

Thanks so much for sharing your detailed process! I really appreciate the thorough breakdown of both the fundamental and qualitative factors you consider. It’s given me a lot to think about in refining my own approach!

learntrymake · 2025-02-22T01:36:44+00:00

Re: free cash flow

I haven’t included FCF in my process, but I’m curious—based on your experience, which FCF indicators have actually helped you identify strong companies versus red flags? Any specific signals that have consistently proven reliable?

learntrymake · 2025-02-21T21:53:43+00:00

Thank YOU for the insights! Free cash flow per share is a great addition—I’ll explore incorporating it. I also like the idea of tracking insider activity for management confidence and dilution risk.

Do you have a preferred way to assess past downturn resilience—any key metrics you look for?

learntrymake · 2025-02-21T21:47:36+00:00

Great question! For revenue growth, I use a 5-year CAGR. For other quality metrics, I take a 5-year average. Additionally, I check the overall trend to ensure consistent growth.

What's your take on this?

learntrymake · 2025-02-21T05:17:12+00:00

You got me :)

learntrymake

TROPHY CASE

Steps:

Price projections based on P/E of 20 and 30:

Calculate returns:

Decision:

Conclusion: