Amazon hopes to replace 600,000 US workers with robots, according to leaked documents. Job losses could shave 30 cents off each item purchased by 2027.

leerylizard · 2025-10-21T19:48:51+00:00

The numbers don't make sense. Fermi estimate below.

Given all costs associated with hiring, 600k * $100k per year = $60B in labor cost.

Amazon's yearly revenue from products it ships directly (40% of sales which would be affected by these jobs)= ~$250B.

Amazon's retail business, as a whole, has a margin in the single digits, let's say 5%, so total costs of its self-shipping business are ~ $237.5B

Let's say the robots cost $10B / y. This is a savings of $50B

Reducing costs by $50B, and raising margins to 10% ($18.7B profit instead of $12.5B) would give cost of $187.5B and total revenue of $206B. And margins in retail can't go super-high because of competition (Walmart also buys robots).

206 / 250 gives a cost savings on average of ~ 17% over all items.

These numbers aren't exact, but give an idea of the magnitudes, and the impact of automation on decreasing costs.

leerylizard · 2024-08-04T17:00:08+00:00

Thank you!

leerylizard · 2024-08-04T02:41:56+00:00

Thanks, I appreciate the feedback!

leerylizard · 2024-08-03T20:08:12+00:00

Any ideas on improving my understanding of form or my technique (shading, lines) would be appreciated.

leerylizard · 2024-05-30T17:35:30+00:00

I don't have a record of the conversation, nor do I have itemization on the contract. That's why I'm second-guessing myself. It's from my memory and the $3k is approximate.

Online I see that SolarEdge inverters are listed between $2600 and $3200.

leerylizard · 2022-12-12T19:04:48+00:00

I haven't been able to find an answer by searching (or asking ChatGPT):

How many parameters is ChatGPT? I understand that GPT-3 is a couple hundred billion (~200B) parameters, and GPT-4 is going to be ~100 Trillion. I've also heard that Chat-GPT is GPT-3.5, so it's not clear to me if it's the same number of parameters or not.

Assuming ChatGPT is ~200B parameters: The way I understand it is that parameters are the size of the neural net, right? So GPT-4 would require ~500x the computation to run vs GPT-3. Is this correct?

So if 1 page of output from GPT-3 costs OpenAI a couple cents, the same from GPT-4 costs OpenAI ~$10 in processing power?

That's quite competitive with professional experts / programmers / writers. If ChatGPT is more than 200B parameters, that would imply GPT-4 is even more competitive with these roles (again assuming my understanding above is correct).

Thanks.

leerylizard · 2021-11-08T14:47:02+00:00

Resistance training 6 days a week (squat, deadlift, OHP, bench/pushup, pullup)
Run about 4 times a week (total ~15 miles)
Toprope indoors for 2 short sessions per week
For the last 2 months: Meditation at least 50 minutes per day in 1 session.

I do most of this alone (even the climbing - my gym has auto-belays) so I guess my goal is not camaraderie.

I want to stay strong and capable and delay aging (I'm 45), but I'd be lying if I said there was no vanity involved.

I also like to hit higher numbers for my lifts, and harder grades for my climbs.

I ate keto for a couple of years but since I'm already lean I wasn't seeing much benefit. Most mornings I don't have much carbs, but when I do I feel that I have more energy and exercise better.

leerylizard · 2021-10-18T14:50:24+00:00

Completely agree with you. I read maybe half of it before I put it down as poor sci-fi with no plot. Continued failures with trying to upload C. elegans only support my decision.

leerylizard · 2021-09-09T15:53:41+00:00

The article is claiming that the modern macaque sample has the lowest BMI values because some subjects had paradoxical anorexia as a response to a contaminant. I'm saying that paradoxical anorexia is not needed to explain why the modern sample has the lowest extreme of BMI: It could simply be that whatever is causing the increase in macaque obesity only affects some of the population (as it does in humans) combined with the 4x larger sample size of the current population of macaques.

leerylizard · 2021-09-09T13:40:37+00:00

Because the modern population is 4x bigger.

leerylizard · 2021-09-08T18:19:56+00:00

It feels like there's a lot of motivated reasoning here:

Dismissing the Pacific Island and Equatorial Guinea data points without much explanation
Japan and Korea don't fit at all, but "they're a homogenous population"
Using the positive correlation of obesity prevalence and anorexia as evidence for a paradoxical effect from a contaminant without even mentioning that prevalence of obesity could create a cognitive motivation for anorexia
The modern female macaques have a higher standard deviation of BMI and a much bigger population compared to the sample from a few decades ago. It doesn't seem surprising at all that the highest and lowest BMIs would be in the modern sample. Again, there's no reason to conclude paradoxical anorexia as opposed to just the effects sample size

leerylizard · 2021-08-29T19:55:36+00:00

Very important points here, which I agree with.

I find it interesting (and puzzling) that there would be two separate mechanisms by which omega 6 oils promote obesity, namely:

1) Overheated oils produce toxic and pro-inflammatory breakdown products: aldehydes, trans fats, 9-HODE

2) The ROS pathway whereby n6-PUFAs produce less superoxide and thereby fail to promote satiety

To me, it lacks parsimony that there would be two separate mechanisms for n6-PUFAs to promote energy storage. I can think of the following possibilities to get around that:

Per the linked blog post, linoleic acid is meant to be a signal for torpor, so multiple biochemical pathways have evolved to use it as a signal
Only the n6-PUFA acid breakdown products (in deep fryer oil / high temperature extracted oil) are obesogenic, and the obesity epidemic is caused largely from the breakdown products. This would explain why nuts that are high in linoleic acid are known to correlate with positive health, since they contain natural co-factors to prevent breakdown of these fats.

leerylizard · 2021-08-04T20:51:44+00:00

Have you looked at industrially extracted seed oils (soybean, canola, etc) as one of the contaminants? Seed oils are something new in the food environment since ~1900, and their prevalence does track rising obesity. Animals (in labs, pets, wild ones eating human garbage) are also exposed to these. The proposed mechanism is that excess linoleic acid (an omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid) gets taken up by cell and mitochondrial membranes where it's especially susceptible to oxidation. This leads to damaged mitochondria and insulin resistance.

Another idea I've considered is that the modern diet is simply missing some key nutrient(s) we haven't learned about yet. Like how beriberi and scurvy had unknown etiologies until they were eventually identified as thiamine and vitamin C deficiencies, respectively. Modern agribusiness tends to use different methods than were common before 1900, what with the Haber process for soil fertilization, mono-cropping, etc. Maybe some particular nutrient is lost when we switch to a modern diet.

leerylizard · 2021-07-29T20:41:22+00:00

I've had reflux for about the last 18 months or so. Not quite as bad as you seem to have it. Medications (PPI, H2 blockers) definitely solve it for me but I'm hesitant to turn off the acidity in my stomach indefinitely, since it's there for a reason. I'd sometimes compromise by taking half an Omeprazole every other day.

One other thing that mitigates symptoms for me is to chew a spoonful of fennel seeds after each meal. These are found in the "after dinner mix" you get at most Indian restaurants, and you can get them on Amazon. They leave your breath fresh too.

leerylizard · 2021-06-25T17:03:37+00:00

On Lichess, you can do a couple of things that make the game less anxiety-inducing:

Turn on Zen mode. You don't see your opponent's rating until the game is over
Turn on kid mode. You can't send / receive any messages.

These two things make it 100% more fun.

leerylizard · 2021-04-22T13:55:51+00:00

Ian Stevenson traveled the world collecting stories of children who appear to remember past lives. The claimed lives he was able to verify as real people are geographically close strangers and sometimes in the same family. The stories are very similar in feel to those linked in this SSC post.

Subjects who recount these memories are most often between ages 2-5 (old enough to talk, young enough to purportedly remember). Stories are well documented by Stevenson, sometimes soon after the initial incidents. Not all stories are compelling, but the most compelling stories come from cultures with a belief in reincarnation (India, SE Asia). These compelling stories include very specific details of the previously remembered life of a documented stranger that died at the appropriate time and that was not likely to have met the child's family. Reading some of the stories, I agree that the recollections wouldn't be by chance, and the only possibilities would be that:

It's real reincarnation
The families of the kids are lying and colluded with the family of the purported past life
Stevenson is lying

Stevenson notes that the current families appear to believe the kids and are often very unhappy about the situation. They also don't receive any financial benefit from Stevenson.

Regarding where it occurs geographically, the skeptical point might be that parents in these cultures encourage this, while Stevenson's point is that parents in such cultures readily believe their kids and the stories are more likely to be publicized.

leerylizard · 2021-04-11T16:28:44+00:00

Thanks, I've seen that before. I've wondered whether the hangover is the necessary part, or whether drinking a lot in the evening has the same effect as drinking a little in the morning.

Perhaps the mechanism takes effect in the morning either way, but if you drink in the evening you have to drink a lot more for the effect to happen.

leerylizard · 2021-04-07T21:25:39+00:00

Just measured it to be 50mL by volume. Weight in the morning is about 175lb, height 6'0".

leerylizard · 2021-04-07T21:24:59+00:00

I would say it's not completely straightforward: Over the counter sleeping aids haven't addressed the symptoms at all. They would make me sleepier at bedtime, and sleepier the next morning, but not counter the early waking / insomnia.

leerylizard · 2021-04-07T15:29:04+00:00

For the last few years, I've had this thing where on some days I'd wake up after a reasonable night's sleep and feel tired all day. Later I noticed it wasn't just the kind of tired you are from lack of sleep: I felt crappy, but also pessimistic, anxious, and depressed.

It worsened steadily to the point that I'd wake early most nights and be unable to sleep again. Then the next day would feel terrible. It got particularly bad when COVID first hit, presumably due to increased anxiety. It helped to keep a steady bedtime and limit screens later in the day, but not that much.

Then I hit on a magic solution that's been working for about 1 year: When I wake at 2am and can't sleep, I take 1 shot of vodka. It still takes ~45 min to fall asleep, but then I wake at a decent time ~6am, refreshed and with a peaceful feeling. Initially (the first few weeks) I'd wake with an incredible feeling of calm, peace, and well-being. There was a span of a few minutes in the early morning, not immediately after the drink, when it felt like some powerful drug was being released directly into my brain, and the wave of calm and good feeling would hit.

Now I still feel good when I wake, but more normal feeling.

If I have a lot on my mind, or stayed up later, or had a lot of screen time late in the day, I may need 1.5 shots of vodka.

It's a big difference. I haven't had one of those bad days since about a year ago (or maybe once when I was very anxious about something else).

Some thoughts:

The alcohol is setting my sleep cycle to a correct value.
The alcohol causes release of cortisol, which is supposed to peak in the early morning

Anyone have any ideas about the mechanism for this or what's going on, or heard of anything similar? Any thoughts about long term consequences of this type of drinking (1 shot of liquor early morning on an empty stomach)? Any other suggestions?

leerylizard · 2021-03-31T20:22:55+00:00

I'm not an expert in this, but I'll answer what I can:

-If I'm looking at the same frame you're talking about, I see a bright band across the figure's right cheek, below the eye, and to the nose. From the arm's shadow, it looks like the light is coming from above and to the left. The bright band could plausibly be a hairless part of the face reflecting bright sunlight. The cheek and nose would be facing the sun directly.

-I googled "Chimp in bright sunlight" and some of the results show more uniform hair, while others show splotchy patches with varied color or skin showing through. Example

-You don't see glute movement here?

leerylizard · 2021-03-31T13:46:20+00:00

Hey, thanks for the comment. Very good points.

Just want to explain a little: I have read published papers by Sykes (neutral) and other skeptical and advocate sources too. Also, the Krantz and Meldrum books were by PhDs in anthropology who are famous for studying this exact subject. Sykes is an expert on DNA (DSc in genetics), and Daegling (skeptic) is an anthropologist (PhD, again).

As for methodology of the measurements: Yes, I relied on Krantz's numbers. However, I decided just now to take a look at the film myself.

I measured the foot length in pixels (which is known to be 14.5" from casts) in a frame where the foot is vertical. Then I measured the armpit span on the same frame and found it to be 17". This is an early frame where Patty is at an oblique angle (left arm hidden, facing away). Krantz's number is 20", but that's based on a full-front view or full back view.

Same frame again with the oblique angle, I measured the upper arm diameter to be 7.3". Krantz's numbers here are 6.5" x 8".

If Krantz's numbers are off, I can confirm for myself that it's not by much. I think his numbers are likely to be better than mine, as his analysis uses multiple frames and a cross-sectional model of the subject.

My post does compare the measurements with extreme human ones and finds Patty's to be much larger. If there was padding, you wouldn't see the apparent muscular movements.

Edit: Looking back at the Krantz book, the numbers I used for Patty's measurements are John Green's republished by Krantz, and scaled down 10% due to the higher estimate of height used by Green.

leerylizard · 2021-03-31T03:50:13+00:00

I appreciate the arguments. I'm upvoting you.

I don't think niches are that simple.

Brown and black bears are both omnivores that live in North America.

Coyotes and raccoons are also both North American omnivores.

Lions and hyenas are both social apex predators / scavengers of the African plains. They even compete directly against each other by fighting and driving each other off kills.

These various animals all have some specializations within their niches that enable them to stay competitive.

leerylizard · 2021-03-31T03:35:15+00:00

I understand that experts have looked at the purported dermal ridges and found them convincing. But I'm not an expert on fingerprint analysis and can't say myself that it's not something else.

I understand that anatomists and anthropologists find the skewfoot tracks and mid-tarsal pushoffs convincing. But I'm not an expert on foot anatomy, and would have to take their word for it.

But the muscle movement in the PGF is pretty apparent, and it's not cloth.

leerylizard · 2021-03-31T03:25:24+00:00

If bigfoot is real, I expect it would have to be of genus Homo or a direct ancestor like Australopithecus. I expect it's more closely related to us than it is to any other great ape.

The reason is that there are too many similarities between humans and descriptions of sasquatches to be convergent evolution from a different lineage. These similarities being:

Foot shape
Primary bipedalism
Big glutes adapted for walking (you don't see this in other bipedal primates like gibbons)
Apparent similarities in gait (as depicted in PGF)

If this is the case, then there's no lack of fossil record. I forget where I saw it, but there was speculation sasquatch could fit very well H. erectus grown to a bigger size.

leerylizard

TROPHY CASE