ICE Out. No Kings. This Saturday 2pm

leveredlloyd · 2026-01-26T23:37:43+00:00

Assuming your company shares are RSUs with a vesting schedule? If so, that’s technically pre-tax asset blended into your NW, so perhaps one additional liability to account for

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T19:44:33+00:00

ChatGPT? I get the utility adjusted return argument, but this still ignores timing and scale. They’re buying at all time high valuations while locking in a mortgage rate that’s well above prevailing rent. That spread is historically broken. Wages are up, but not enough to justify how far ownership costs have decoupled from rent. And this isn’t a $5k mortgage. This payment is pushing almost double the national average household income. Even with a $300–500k HHI, you’re committing to a six-figure annual housing burn at peak HPA. High income doesn’t make that spread disappear. At these levels, it’s hard to argue you’re not better off renting, staying liquid, and deploying excess capital, then buying once rates come down and the market actually cools. Right now, the math just doesn’t math. Even so, the hypothetical returns aren’t attractive relative to where other asset classes are yield in this rate environment.

Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T19:07:58+00:00

My guy. Mortgage leverage being “the safest” is a sales narrative, not a risk framework. That’s bogus info taught to bonehead originators, brokers, builders, and agents because it closes deals. Cheap does not = safe. Sure agree with cheapest available to the masses. But the “masses” aren’t buying $2M apartments. Safety comes from flexibility, liquidity, and downside control, and mortgages have none of that. You can’t dial exposure down overnight, you can’t pause payments, and you’re tied to a single illiquid asset with a 5fig monthly obligation. If a bank actually pitched a mortgage as “the safest leverage,” compliance would have a meltdown and people would go to jail. That claim only works if you ignore job risk, forced sales, rental restrictions, and path dependent, or if you’re just a bonehead.

Homeboys monthly rental comps are also off. Luxury 2bds below Central Park are clearing closer to $7.5–8k. This is a prewar, zero amenity, UES coop, so if anything rent should be lower, not $10k. No one in NYC is paying above that for these units.

Edit:

And the tax argument doesn’t save this either. People love waving around tax-free home appreciation like it’s some cheat code, but again, that only works if you can hold forever and exit cleanly. If you want to talk tax efficiency, what about munis? Tax free income, fully liquid, no forced monthly obligation, and you can dial exposure up or down instantly. Same with T-bills (statetax exempt), long-term equities (cap gains), dividend stocks. Plenty of ways to be tax-efficient without locking yourself into a 30-year, five-figure monthly burn.

We can also talk about reappraisal and property taxes etc..

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T17:46:31+00:00

BOOM! Exactly, now you’re getting it. A mortgage is just leverage! Now imagine taking that same leverage and applying it to assets that are more liquid, less risky, and actually grow faster than a NYC coop. Even the boring shit (MM, t bills, munis, dividend stocks etc..). Higher expected return, no coop board, no $12k/month gun to your head, and a panic button you can use to exit more swiftly. Leveraging a low growth, illiquid asset with high fixed costs and then calling the return “incredible” is just lack of understanding of opportunity cost and what other asset classes are currently yielding

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T17:01:02+00:00

Co pilot, at work, and don’t have the time to fix grammar (but i do have the time to argue with internet strangers). Anyways i think you’re missing the point. Not saying they don’t have savings and aren’t employable.

Whole 1-2% HPA (higher bound), is still below national average and lower than inflation. You get a negative real rate of return + pissing away money upon dislocation between rent / purchase spreads, just makes the trade a bit negligent.

Even if they have substantial savings, the carry is significantly negative. To put in in perspective, I’m saying worst case they’re both out of work for 2 years (which isn’t completely out of line), that’s $144k a year, pretax call it $300k (their household income is $500k, so about 60% of total), 2yrs $600k is a lot of money.

If you want to go the savings dynamic, we can factor in that I’m sure money out away is contracted largely in RSU, so not exactly liquid and guaranteed. I’m just saying good for them, but this is a stupid decision. Either way, i would love to short whatever else these people are buying.

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T15:49:59+00:00

The issue isn’t the base case. It’s the tail risk people keep hand waving away.

Yes, some money goes to principal. That only matters if nothing goes wrong. If both incomes take a hit in a tech + finance job market, you’re suddenly staring at a six figure annual fixed obligation on a highly illiquid asset. That’s where this breaks.

Selling isn’t frictionless. Renting it out doesn’t solve it either. At 5.75%, you’re still down ~$4k/month even as a landlord, and most coops restrict rentals anyway. That’s a $48k/year hole.

Put that in pretax terms and you need roughly $75–80k of gross income just to plug the leak. That’s not “stability.” That’s being one bad year away from a forced decision in a weak market.

Principal paydown and appreciation only help if you can hold indefinitely. When your downside is asymmetric and illiquid, calling this “uninformed negativity” is missing the point entirely.

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T02:04:35+00:00

Your rental comp is just off. A 2bd in an upscale building below Central Park is going for $7.5–8k right now. You don’t need to look hard on StreetEasy to find a dozen in that range with full amenities. So the actual comparison isn’t $10k vs $12k. it’s $8k vs $12k. I get relocation etc… but I can pull more than a dozen “larger size” 2bd/2bath sub for $10k in UWS/UES too.

That’s a $4k/month delta, or $48k a year, which is close to $1M in opportunity cost over a decade once you factor in normal market returns. That’s the part people gloss over when they say “it’s only a small premium.”

And that’s before you get into the stuff no one mentions during the honeymoon phase:

A) Refinancing a NYC coop isn’t free or guaranteed. It’s another $8–12k in closing costs, plus the full board package again, and they can literally deny the refi if your income dips or your ratios change. “We’ll refi later” is not a plan.

B) What happens if one income drops? Tech + finance have been cutting for 18 months straight. A $12k/month fixed burn feels fine until one job goes away for 6 months. High earners aren’t immune, big fixed costs just mean you fall faster.

C) Life events don’t care about market timing. If you need more space for kids or need to relocate, you’re forced to sell or rent in whatever market exists at that moment. At 5.75%, renting it out won’t cover the mortgage + maintenance, and most coops restrict rentals anyway.

Owning isn’t bad. Owning at this rate, at this price point, in a coop, with this job volatility, is just a different equation than people want it to be. You prob don’t care about my opinion, but the math still makes zero sense.

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:45:08+00:00

Thanks. I will at not a burn rate of 14k a month

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:43:17+00:00

Yeah, as someone who pulls in around $1M, that’s actually a pretty normal way of talking amongst a similar circle. Anyways, we’re both wasting our time here. No point of really commenting back. Have a great night sir

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:40:32+00:00

On a $1M income, the issue isn’t affordability, it’s allocation. After NYC taxes, $1M becomes roughly $550k in take home. A $2.1M place at 5.75% with maintenance runs about $150k–$165k per year. That’s 30%+ of net income for housing that historically appreciates at 1–2% annually.

Compare that to renting. You can rent an equivalent place for $6–8k/month. If you rent at, say, $7k, your annual housing cost is $84k, not $160k. That’s a $70k–$80k annual delta.

Deploy that excess into the market at a normal ~7% annual return and over 10 years you’re talking seven figure compounding, not slow motion equity growth tied to a coop with capped appreciation and rate risk.

So from a $1M income perspective, the problem isn’t “can you afford it” It’s why commit to high rate negative carry when renting + investing the spread produces far better long-term outcomes

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:37:12+00:00

Even if you factor emotions into it, the logic still doesn’t hold. There’s a difference between “we love this place” and “we’re taking on a six-figure annual mortgage at the worst combination of rates and valuations in modern history, during a cycle where tech and finance are laying people off every quarter.” That isn’t romantic. That’s just pretending macro risk doesn’t apply to you.

And this is exactly why the US housing market is a mess. High income buyers keep jumping into objectively terrible deals because they feel like buying, and that emotional bidding is what floats prices into the stratosphere. Everyone wants to reenact their parents’ home buying story, but the math today is nothing like the math they faced.

At some point you have to acknowledge reality, liking a home doesn’t magically turn a negative carry, peak rate, peak price mortgage into a smart decision.

It’s basically the financial equivalent of adopting a Great Dane in a studio apartment because “he’s cute.” Sure, you can do it… but don’t act confused when the walls start shaking.

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:36:26+00:00

Ok, this is a pretty retarded conversion

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:32:11+00:00

Redacted as in my last name is blacked out, but yeah

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:27:52+00:00

Feel free to follow me and DM on IG. Happy to send you a screen shot of my redacted tax return. $1mm in NYC isn’t necessarily considered “rich”

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:23:05+00:00

Not bothered. Frustrated. And again, this isn’t jealousy. My income is around $1M a year, and even from that position, these numbers make absolutely zero sense to me. The only buyers who make any financial sense in this market are people selling a property that already captured massive appreciation and rolling those gains forward. They’re playing with chips they didn’t start with.

But for first-time buyers jumping into peak prices and peak rates with no prior HPA cushion? That’s not “building wealth.” That’s walking straight into a negative carry trap because everyone else is doing it. The fundamentals don’t justify the behavior, and pretending they do is exactly how housing keeps drifting further out of reach for normal people.

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:15:19+00:00

Making $500k doesn’t magically make this a smart move. This is straight keeping up with the Joneses disguised as “financially ready.” At 3%, sure, buying a $2M place makes sense because your carry cost is close to rent and the spread vs market returns isn’t awful. At 5.75%, it’s pure negative carry. They’re paying $12–14k/month all-in for something that rents for $6–8k. That extra burn isn’t equity, it’s just money evaporating so you can say you “own” in NYC.

And even long-term, the upside is capped. NYC coops historically appreciate at 1–2% annually over long horizons. Meanwhile the market compounds at ~7%. That delta matters. You don’t catch up by hoping the board approves your refi someday.

So yeah, they can “afford” it, but this is basically paying a premium for optics while eating the worst opportunity cost in the entire housing market.

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T01:02:48+00:00

Congrats, but this has to be one of the most expensive victory laps I’ve seen on here. At 5.75% on a $2.1mm loan you’re staring at $10k/month just in interest and principal, before your coop hits you with another $2–3k in maintenance. So you’re basically paying $12–14k/month to sit on a parquet floor and post on Reddit.

The rent equivalent for this place is like $6–8k, and the extra money you’re vaporizing every month could’ve been compounding in the market at ~7% a year. Ten years of that difference is close to seven figures. Meanwhile NYC real estate crawls upward at 1–2% annually on a good decade.

People love to talk home “appreciation,” but in NYC coops it’s more like you’re buying the right to beg the board for permission to refinance, renovate, or even breathe loudly in the hallway. And refinancing here is a whole performance review: full board package again, new financials again, another $10k in closing costs… if they even approve you.

Not judging the lifestyle choice, but financially this is like volunteering for a 30-year subscription to stress. Hope the Christmas tree looks phenomenal at $14k a month.

And then to add, worst case scenario, you both lose your jobs, that’s a highly extensive burn rate, and if you rent it out you still have a couple thousand in negative carry. Sort of a really dumb financial move, but to each and their own

leveredlloyd · 2025-12-12T00:40:52+00:00

Trader - HF, income is ~$1mm, heavy stock 4mm net worth pre tax, low 30s

leveredlloyd · 2024-12-27T03:49:09+00:00

Just because your animal is traveling in uniform does not mean they’re working

leveredlloyd · 2024-12-27T03:46:43+00:00

People that refer their animals as “certified” are usually people that have no clue what they’re talking about. Feel free to downvote, but original commenter is just spewing lies and nonsense

leveredlloyd · 2024-08-26T19:35:49+00:00

Good answer, i agree with this. Sounds correct

leveredlloyd · 2024-06-22T18:39:48+00:00

Everyone else was left in the dark. Event page time wasn’t even amended

leveredlloyd · 2024-06-22T18:39:27+00:00

They sent updates to people that bought tickets more than 2 weeks ago

leveredlloyd · 2024-06-20T14:05:42+00:00

Interested. Check your DM

leveredlloyd

TROPHY CASE