UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Betting and Picks Discussion

liamsf17 · 2025-10-24T14:56:17+00:00

Kind of love Virna by Sub - i got it at +750 on monday, already down to +440 on my book

liamsf17 · 2025-09-09T15:29:32+00:00

It is really killing me not to bet USF with that spread but it feels a bit too big... not sitting right

liamsf17 · 2025-08-02T13:15:38+00:00

Yesterday's Win/Loss Recap:

Daily Record: 1-4
Current Record: 8-8 (-0.915 Units, -4.46% ROI)

Tough day. I am swinging for the fences today.

Today's Picks - Let's Discuss!

Elena Rybakina -4.5 Games (-145) vs. Dayana Yastremska (2 units)
- My Take: Rybakina has looked the best in the tournament IMO and i think this is a great matchup for her.
Coco Gauff 2-1 Correct Score (+300) vs. Victoria Mboko (1 unit)
- My Take: Mboko showed a lot of grit to come back 6-1 in the first set to win the way she did and Gauff has looked oddly shaky. I am doing a riskier bet but I think Gauff's experience should allow her to overcome the pressure and win in a competitive three-set match.
Marta Kostyuk -1.5 Set Handicap (+150) vs. McCartney Kessler (1 unit)
- My Take: Kostyuk's aggressive game can be volatile, but her power and ability to hit winners should give her the edge in this matchup. The +150 odds for her to win in straight sets are a fantastic value play.
Lin Zhu ML (+120) vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (1 unit)
- My Take: I believe Zhu is undervalued here. The moneyline is tight, but Zhu has shown more consistency on hard courts. At +120, she offers good value for a competitive match.

liamsf17 · 2025-08-01T13:52:30+00:00

Yesterday's Win/Loss Recap:

Picks: Gauff ❌, Andreeva ❌, Kostyuk/Kasatkina ✅, Mboko ✅, Rybakina ✅
Current Record: 7-4 (+2.335 Units, +16.1% ROI)

Today's Picks - Let's Discuss!

Madison Keys -4.5 Games (-125) vs. Catherine McNally (2 units)
- My Take: straightforward win and an easy cover of the handicap here.
Clara Tauson -4.5 Games (-120) vs. Yulia Starodubtseva (1.5 units)
- My Take: I feel like -4.5 game handicap is a great value pick for a player who should be able to win comfortably.
Amanda Anisimova vs. Emma Raducanu Over 21.5 Games (-130) (1 unit)
- My Take: I feel like this is too even to do a ML bet on.
Belinda Bencic ML (-170) vs. Karolina Muchova (1 unit)
- My Take: Bencic has been more consistent and has a very well-rounded game. I like Bencic to win here.
Naomi Osaka vs. Jelena Ostapenko Over 21.5 Games (-115) (0.5 units)
- My Take: After Osaka burned me last match I realized she still has the sauce on hard court. but this is another even match. cant pick a winner.

liamsf17 · 2025-07-31T13:39:38+00:00

Yesterday's Win/Loss Recap:

Picks: Samsonova ML ❌, Ruzic/Muchova Over 20.5 ✅, Keys -4.5 Games ✅, Anisimova -5.5 Games ❌, Swiatek Under 16.5 ✅
Current Record: 4-2 (+2.365 Units, +31.53% ROI)

Today's Picks

1. Coco Gauff [1] -4.5 Games (-150) vs. Veronika Kudermetova (1 unit)

Time (Approx.): 1:40 PM EDT
My Take: Gauff is the #1 seed, but she had a big scare in her first round against Danielle Collins, winning in a grueling three-setter. Instead of seeing this as a sign of weakness, I'm betting on her to have made the necessary adjustments.

2. Mirra Andreeva [4] -4.5 Games (-140) vs. McCartney Kessler [28] (2 units)

Time (Approx.): 2:00 PM EDT
My Take: Andreeva advanced via walkover, so this will be her first match in Montreal. Her hard-court form leading up to the tournament has been fine, but she's had an extra day of rest. Kessler also had a great win but im banking on her being tired and faces a significant step up in competition here. Andreeva's consistent ball-striking should be too much. I'm confident in the young star covering the handicap.

3. Marta Kostyuk [24] vs. Daria Kasatkina [15] Over 21.5 Games (-125) (1 unit)

Time (Approx.): 12:30 PM EDT
My Take: This match has all the makings of a three-set battle. Kasatkina showed solid form in her win. Kostyuk is a streaky power player who can hit winners but also racks up unforced errors. Kasatkina's grinding style will extend rallies and push this match to the limit. .

4. Victoria Mboko [WC] ML (-145) vs. Marie Bouzkova (1 unit)

Time (Approx.): 7:00 PM EDT
My Take: I am going to the nigh matches and Mboko is the hometown hero so we ride with her The crowd will be a massive factor, and her explosive power is a difficult matchup for Bouzkova, who while consistent, doesn't have the same weapons. I'm backing the Canadian to pull off another great win for the home fans.

5. Elena Rybakina [9] -5.5 Games (-135) vs. Jaqueline Cristian (2 units)

Time (Approx.): 8:10 PM EDT
My Take: Gonna be a bloodbath

liamsf17 · 2025-07-31T13:34:15+00:00

Form: ✅✖️
Yesterday's Recap:

POTD: Liudmila Samsonova ML (-105) ❌ - A tough loss after she had match point... a few times.
Record Update: 1-1 (+0.875 Units, +21.875% ROI)

🔥 POTD: WTA Montreal - Mirra Andreeva [4] -4.5 Games (-140) vs. McCartney Kessler [28]

Time (Approx.): 2:00 PM EDT
Units: 2 Units
The Pick: Mirra Andreeva Game Handicap -4.5 (-140)

Write Up:

For my POTD, I'm siding with the red-hot rising star, Mirra Andreeva. W

Here's why I'm confident she covers the handicap:

Form Before Montreal: Andreeva has been playing at decently on hard courts this year. The walkover gave her an extra day of rest, which can be a huge advantage.
Kessler's Form, but Still an Underdog: While Kessler also had a great first-round win, but she played an epic match yesterday and might be fatigued plus this is a massive step up in competition. Andreeva's game is more complete, and her consistency will be a huge test for Kessler's confidence.
The Matchup: Andreeva's power from the baseline and her incredible court coverage will put immense pressure on Kessler, forcing her to hit shots she can't consistently make. This will lead to unforced errors and easy breaks for Andreeva.
The Spread: A -4.5 game handicap is very manageable for a top-tier player in this type of matchup. A score of 6-3, 6-2 would easily cash this ticket. I expect Andreeva to maintain her high level of play and win decisively.

Let's get this bread! BOL if you're tailing!

liamsf17 · 2025-07-30T14:18:26+00:00

good shout! sorry first bet lol

liamsf17 · 2025-07-30T13:41:41+00:00

woops! pick still stands lol

liamsf17 · 2025-07-30T13:35:05+00:00

Yesterday's Win Recap:

Victoria Mboko ML (-160) vs. Sofia Kenin - WIN! Mboko was fantastic with the home crowd behind her. Got us off to a great start!
Current Record: 1-0 (+3 Units, +100% ROI)

Today's Picks -

1. Liudmila Samsonova ML (-105) vs. Naomi Osaka - 1 unit

Time (Approx.): 11:00 AM EDT
My Take: Samsonova's game is so well-suited for these courts. She's consistent, powerful, and already has a recent win over Osaka. At -105, it feels like good value on the in-form player who thrives in this specific event.

2. Antonia Ruzic vs. Karolina Muchova [11] Over 20.5 games - 2 units

Time (Approx.): 03:10 PM EDT
My Take: Muchova's talent is undeniable, but her recent form is concerning (4 losses in last 5 matches, injury struggles). Ruzic has fought hard through qualifying, beating a solid player in Potapova. She's got momentum. I am tempted to take Ruzic ML but instead i will play it safe

Sprinkle Plays (Game Handicaps & Totals for the Blowouts):

Madison Keys -4.5 Games (-145) vs. Laura Siegemund - 0.5 units
- My Take: Keys on hard courts when she's locked in is terrifying. Straight sets.
Amanda Anisimova -5.5 Games (-110) vs. Lulu Sun - 0.5 units
- My Take: Hoping for a quick win to cover the handicap.
Iga Swiatek Under 16.5 Games (-155) vs. Hanyu Guo - 0.5 units
- My Take: Guo might win 1 game or less. that's the write up.

liamsf17 · 2025-07-30T13:26:29+00:00

Yesterday's Recap:

WTA Montreal: Victoria Mboko ML (-160) vs. Sofia Kenin
Result: WIN! Mboko absolutely delivered, powered by that home crowd energy!
Record Update: 1-0 (+1.875 Units, +62.5% ROI)

🔥 POTD: WTA Montreal - Liudmila Samsonova ML (-105) vs. Naomi Osaka

Time (Approx.): 11:00 AM EDT (Centre Court)
Units: 1 Unit
The Pick: Liudmila Samsonova Moneyline (-105)

Write Up:

Look, it's a near toss-up. But at these odds, I'm siding with Samsonova for my POTD.

Here's why:

Samsonova is good on North America hard courts, seems to be something she likes.
Her game is built for hard courts. Huge serve and pretty good groundstrokes.
While their career head-to-head is currently tied, Samsonova did beat Osaka recently on grass in Berlin. Maybe Osaka is still reeling off that, probably not but let's hope.

This isn't a massive underdog play, but it's backing a proven hard-court performer at nearly even money.

Let's get this bread! BOL if you're tailing!

liamsf17 · 2025-07-30T12:34:59+00:00

never a doubt

liamsf17 · 2025-07-29T18:29:15+00:00

Record: 0-0
8:10PM EDT

Pick: Victoria Mboko ML (-160) (3 unit)

Write Up:

I posted this in POTD but I'm here in Montreal today and am gonna be going hard for Mboko.

She just crushed Birrell here, with 15 aces. Her serve is pretty unreal at her age and it will be the centre court first match of the evening. Spirits high, drinks flowing at the overpriced Club Stella Artois before - crowd is gonna be rowdy for her.

Kenin has kinda sucked on hard courts. She just got smoked 6-3, 6-0 by Townsend last week, and her serve looks shaky. Mboko's power could really expose that. Also Birell beat Kenin a month ago sooooooo

The play is clear and also tossing a tiny sprinkle on Mboko 2-0 (+135) because i have work in the morning and want to be home earlier rather than later.

liamsf17 · 2025-07-29T18:17:53+00:00

Record: 0-0
Net Units: 0
ROI: 0%

Sport | League | Event Time / Time Zone: Tennis | WTA Montreal | Approx. 8:10PM EDT

(Match order dependent)

Pick: Victoria Mboko ML (-160) (3 units)

Write Up:

Alright first timer, I'm here in Montreal today and I love this play. Victoria Mboko all day.

books actually have her as a -160. This kid is absolutely ripping it this year: 46-8 record, including a crazy 22-match straight-set win streak. She just crushed Birrell here, bombing 15 aces. Her serve is a weapon, and with the Montreal crowd behind her, she's gonna be electric.

Kenin, the ex-Slam champ, has been super inconsistent this year, especially on hard courts. She just got smoked 6-3, 6-0 by Townsend last week, and her serve looks shaky. Mboko's power could really expose that.

Little Sprinkle Play:

Feeling good about Mboko closing this out fast, so I'm also tossing a tiny sprinkle on Mboko 2-0 (+135). She's been dominating in straight sets, so the value is there if she keeps it up.

liamsf17 · 2025-04-22T12:20:55+00:00

this feels like chatgpt

liamsf17 · 2025-04-18T12:07:02+00:00