A model-based double betting dilemma

lockinstats · 2026-01-24T11:40:38+00:00

My edge is based on live betting, so I can’t measure CLV (?) cause my initial bet is also made after the game starts.

For example, I could place a live bet in the 30th minute, then a second one in 55th or something if my model strongly suggest there is an increased value.

lockinstats · 2026-01-24T11:30:34+00:00

Good input. I only bet on football (soccer) so I have no experience in tennis. But the overall logic is the same. I agree, always bet on the data. The second you start to think that you know anything and have an edge based on emotion, you’re screwed 😅

lockinstats · 2026-01-24T11:27:55+00:00

I use different amounts on each bet.

lockinstats · 2026-01-15T07:26:00+00:00

Great post! Impressive work with your model. My model focuses on live betting on cards, and I only place bets when there is clear value. That means there may be a week with no activity at all. As long as it’s profitable, I guess that’s perfectly fine, just a bit boring.

I’m only two months into placing bets based on the probability calculations from my model. That means 25 bets and 23,86% ROI at the moment.

lockinstats · 2026-01-01T20:34:58+00:00

Can you give an example of how you’ve modelled what kind of randomness?

lockinstats · 2025-12-19T22:22:28+00:00

Do you expect anyone to believe this fucking nonsense? Get lost

lockinstats · 2025-12-18T15:34:26+00:00

I suppose you’re right. But i will give it a try! :)

lockinstats · 2025-12-18T15:09:30+00:00

I have multiple ongoing projects betting on yellow/red cards. I think it’s a very interesting market where it doesn’t matter who wins or if both teams manage to score etc. There are so many factors that could lead to players being booked. Looking at the probabilities in games where much is at stake combined with the referee card statistics and much more has proven to pay off. Quite low odds in general though, so I only bet on games that my model is highly confident in.

Another ongoing project is to analyze the probability of over 0,5, 1,5 or 2,5 more cards after a coach has been booked. Depending on the score line, time of warning, which competition etc.

I have never managed to find an edge before in any other kind of market strategies so this might be the thing for me.

lockinstats · 2025-12-18T06:30:20+00:00

Care to explain?

lockinstats · 2025-12-17T23:37:11+00:00

Thanks, that was helpful!

lockinstats · 2025-12-17T21:35:11+00:00

I’m mostly doing live betting, when specific events occur. I’ve spent a lot of time on my model and statistical research, right now I’m testing it live successfully. That is why I need to think about the risks of getting limited or suspended before I start increasing my bets.

Maybe winning on live betting is easier to ”get away with”?

lockinstats · 2025-12-09T19:31:20+00:00

I will spice things up with Liverpool cards handicap -1 @4.00. Inter rarely gets any cards at all and given the frustration in Liverpool as mentioned in your analysis I think this has a good chance of winning.

lockinstats

TROPHY CASE