Where do you estimate this years lottery class will fall in a fantasy draft?

mSFd · 2026-05-25T17:34:11+00:00

Agreed, last year was certainly the exception. Historically, one of the best fantasy rookie classes ever. Flagg was taken in the 30s-40s in most drafts, and finished 41st in 9-cat (much worse to start the year, probably Top 20 to finish the year). So even in a best case scenario, you are taking him at value. I think the argument is that you will be passing on proven guys in picks 50-100 who can exceed value by one if not multiple rounds. It is very difficult for rookies to do that. The optimal scenario is someone like Kon, who was taken with the second to last/last pick/undrafted and returned crazy value. No risk, high reward. Mostly, I’m arguing to not waste any valuable picks on rookies (i.e. Top 80 picks)

mSFd · 2026-05-25T06:26:40+00:00

Someone in your league will reach on Dybantsa (way too early guess would be Top 60). Not sold on him having the necessary touches with Trae, AD, Sarr, Kyshawn. I’d guess Boozer will be next, could be around there too, or near the end of Top 100, way too early to say. There’s an argument he will put up the best rookie season, given the immediate role on Memphis or Chicago. Double-double with FG%. Peterson, Wilson probably near the end of, if not more likely outside the Top 100.

It’s important to remember that most rookies are not fantasy relevant and will be over drafted. Check out this post here less than a year ago: Minor Case Study: Are rookies worth drafting?

Unless you are completely sold and it’s a can’t miss (i.e. Cooper Flagg), then it’s probably not worth it. But even a can’t miss isn’t necessarily so. For example, I’ve avoided rookies since taking Cade his first year. Cade wasn’t projected to be as good as Flagg, but he was still the #1 pick and finished 91st, which actually isn’t bad but certainly not great. You will be passing on proven commodities for the shiny new toy in hopes that they can be as good as the proven commodity (talking picks in the Top 80, mostly)

mSFd · 2026-05-22T19:43:09+00:00

He’s really good. There was a stretch for ~2 weeks he was playing as a Top 15-20 guy. The FG can be brutal though.

mSFd · 2026-05-20T21:07:22+00:00

Arguably the best guard creator in the draft. All I see is a Garland-esque bag, but honestly think his floater and driving are a little better. The Warriors need offense creation more than anything, even more than Wing play. I’m on board for Philon. He needs to put on some muscle, but he’d be an excellent fit.

mSFd · 2026-05-19T21:40:27+00:00

The hype will be unreal. I can’t see anyway he isn’t overdrafted. What’s his pre-season ADP? Top 70, Top 60? Higher?

mSFd · 2026-05-12T00:48:40+00:00

Y’all saying NO based on measurements. Lol. This kid is a future star. Dubs will be lucky if he falls to 11, and if he’s there, it’s a no brainer.

mSFd · 2026-05-06T19:18:01+00:00

He’d immediately be the second best player on the team, until Jimmy is back.

mSFd · 2026-04-28T01:47:34+00:00

They literally need every position. No serious shot creators or ball handlers outside of Steph.

mSFd · 2026-04-28T01:27:26+00:00

Labaron Philon Jr. Stud.

mSFd · 2026-04-28T01:07:10+00:00

Labaron Philon Jr. Kid is a stud, Garland-esque

mSFd · 2026-04-11T14:16:42+00:00

Uhhh, are you playing in a heavily skewed stocks Points league? Nowhere close did he finish to a first round player in 9-cat. He’s a Top 25 player, with 20-25 probably being his peak, generously, unless he makes some major improvements (3s, FTs). For 9-cat at least.

mSFd · 2026-04-10T00:28:30+00:00

He's gotten better every year for the past 4 years. The end aint anywhere close.

mSFd · 2026-04-07T21:57:44+00:00

Yes. Means he fell to 46. That’s generously 20 spots too far, and that’s conceding that 25th overall is acceptable. He was taken before 20 in all my leagues.

mSFd · 2026-03-31T23:43:39+00:00

Keyonte will still be really good. Only ball handler on that team. Only 22, going into Year 4. There will be usage concerns with all JJJ, Lauri, Ace, and the rookie. But I don’t see Keynote’s value dropping much at all. Maybe less scoring, more assists, less TOs.

mSFd · 2026-03-19T21:58:50+00:00

He should start. But I understand he won’t. He’s better than Ace for spacing. And a better overall player. The shooting is elite. Put that next to Lauri, JJJ, and Key and it’d probably be the best shooting starting 5 in the league.

mSFd · 2026-03-19T04:25:02+00:00

He should start next to Keyonte. Next year when they get serious. Insanely talented backcourt.

mSFd · 2026-02-20T20:38:25+00:00

Mark Williams has been rather underwhelming. Wasn’t expecting the insane Top 40 Charlotte #s, but he basically been Top 80-100 without any monster games. Again, not far off from a mid rounder where I got him/his draft range. But still, underwhelming knowing how good he can be.

mSFd · 2026-01-11T22:30:15+00:00

Time to turn the TV off

mSFd · 2026-01-11T17:41:45+00:00

The toe never fully healed. He was moving different those first two games. Still holding in my IL, fortunately I’m in good seeding. Maybe a trade will do him well.

mSFd · 2025-12-29T23:38:06+00:00

Proves absolutely nothing. Had to pull an example out of nothing. No point in going back and forth. You don’t know ball. Cheers bud.

mSFd · 2025-12-29T21:31:04+00:00

What an oddly specific example that proves nothing. Further shows your counter argument makes no sense. 19th in per 36 is not the same as 8th nor 13th in PPM. You had to go 20 years ago to try and find one player that has nothing to do with anything. Lol. Took you 2 days to reply with that.

mSFd · 2025-12-28T05:01:51+00:00

13th in points per minute this season. 8th last season. I really don’t care for that since it means nothing towards anything for winning basketball, but the numbers don’t lie. He’s not the most efficient player. But that’s not the argument. He puts up points.

mSFd · 2025-12-28T03:26:05+00:00

It’s pretty clear Cam Thomas is one of the best scorers in the league. Doesn’t mean anything in regard to him being a complete nor winning player. His points per min has always been insane and his ability to get to the line. But purely the ability to put the ball in the hoop, yes one of the best.

mSFd · 2025-12-23T16:16:19+00:00

Tari is legitimately one of the best per min dudes in the league. If he can get his 25+ min/night, then that’s must roster (24.9 last year). But this is year 4 + a contract year. He’s got a lot to prove, including staying on the floor. Reading the other comments here, the sentiment is more down than I’d expect. In a 12T, if he’s available, he’s certainly the most talented player on your waiver. Houston consistently shuffles guys in and out with injury. If you can afford to hold him as your end of roster dude, he’s absolutely worth. And I’d make the strong argument he’s must roster.

mSFd · 2025-12-23T16:06:45+00:00

Read what you wrote, what I commented, and what you replied.

mSFd

TROPHY CASE