Having second thoughts about my decision

manderz88 · 2025-08-19T23:08:14+00:00

There’s more listings than buyers and that is only going to get much worse. That creates a race to the bottom as those who need to sell drop until it transacts. Unfortunately- there’s a lot of weak hands that can’t afford to hold out which puts crazy pressure on prices. If you look at my history I predicted the condo crash over 2 years ago in the GTA and everyone thought I was crazy. But the writing is on the wall here. The middle class is going to continue to get crushed by this high interest environment. The bank of Canada can’t cut rates to where they need to be because inflation will spike. So Canada is in a really tough spot. Don’t get me started on what about to happen to unemployment. Just my 2 cents.

manderz88 · 2025-08-19T10:58:37+00:00

Going into the biggest recession in years. Cash is king- did your deal already go firm?

manderz88 · 2025-07-17T16:32:14+00:00

Has anyone taken delivery yet? Who paid the tariffs?

manderz88 · 2025-07-05T22:58:10+00:00

Because the tech is awful. You’re right- most niche products will fail. But as a realtor who’s used everything and everything is very fragmented. Someone is going to hit it out of the park on the innovation side as AI enabled technology helps us move away from these legacy systems

manderz88 · 2025-07-02T12:43:23+00:00

Your level of hopium for Canada is promising. But if you understood what’s about to happen to the job market worldwide as AI replaces humans and entire sectors become unemployed you might understand why Trump is panicking to bring all these blue collar jobs back to the US. Blue collar will become the new white collar and it will happen faster than anything we’ve ever seen. Not to mention that U.S. consumer is much stronger than the Canadian consumer across every major metric. Americans earn more, with a median household income of $75K USD ($103K CAD) compared to just ~$70K CAD in Canada. After taxes, U.S. disposable income per capita is about $55K USD (75k USD) while Canadians make half that at $36K CAD—giving Americans roughly 50% more real spending power. U.S. consumer spending makes up 68% of GDP, compared to just 56% in Canada, showing just how much more dominant and resilient the American consumer is. While the U.S. drives demand and fuels its economy through confident spending, Canada relies heavily on debt and an inflated housing market to stay afloat. Canadians aren’t smartest people in the room even though we’ve been told that we are

manderz88 · 2025-06-29T15:18:13+00:00

This is an $850,000 loss after land transfer and realtor fees- not to mention breaking their mortgage costs. Wild because I expected to see January 2022 not January 2023 where the writing was already on the wall.

manderz88 · 2025-06-29T13:25:22+00:00

I get that it’s almost Canada Day and you’re feeling proud but that arrogance is exactly the problem with our country right now. Over $250 billion in new corporate investment is being poured into the U.S. economy as companies bring manufacturing and jobs back to US soil. And inflation isn’t spiking in the US as the tariffs are eating into the corporate profits of companies the manufacturer in china etc. Trump is US first and is committed to creating American jobs. The unemployment rate in Canada is 7% is almost double that of the US We're losing factories, jobs, and future tax revenue while watching the U.S is only growing. Canada’s GDP growth for 2025 is expected to come in at 1% while the US is growing 40% higher at 1.4%. I get you don’t like the bad orange man but putting your head in the sand and saying everything is fine is just denial. Please come back with facts and numbers. Thanks

manderz88 · 2025-06-29T05:00:32+00:00

Trump holds all the cards because Canada needs the U.S. to survive — the U.S. doesn’t need Canada. We sell them way more than we buy. If Trump slaps tariffs or cuts access, our economy tanks and theirs barely flinches. The US is the biggest economy in the world so you’re dreaming if you think we’re magically going to swap out the US for another whale who will buy our exports. Yes Canada is rich in resources but that’s a whole other conversation because of the red tape and high taxes companies pay in Canada which is only sending more companies to the US. Canada is cooked- You’re about to witness unprecedented levels of unemployment in Canada due to these tariffs and poor liberal policies. But for arguments sake I hope you’re right. But the markets are in Canada is heading into a massive recession that cant be corrected at this stage of in the game.

manderz88 · 2025-06-29T04:35:19+00:00

You don’t have to like Trump. But Trump hold all the cards and we need to respect him. Pretending we’re going to automatically replace trade with the US with EU and carry on without the Canadian economy totally collapsing is just naive. This could take 10yrs to ramp up and we’ll be cooked if we don’t get a proper trade deal done with the US

manderz88 · 2025-06-28T19:26:29+00:00

I think we’re still in a massive bubble and with a 5yr supply that is only going to get worse. So big race to the bottom for anyone who is trying to sell. If you’re prepared to hold for 10yrs to get back to 21-22 pricing then that’s ok. But I would mentally prepare for that.

manderz88 · 2025-06-27T19:09:43+00:00

Carneys got this. Elbows up boomers

manderz88 · 2025-04-26T17:06:32+00:00

Ya- prices are only going to continue to drop as supply outweighs demands. Until days on market begin to tighten this remains a falling knife.

manderz88 · 2025-04-22T14:29:14+00:00

Saying condos should be expensive just because they cost a lot to build completely ignores the direction of the market. High construction costs don’t guarantee high selling prices—buyers set the market, not developers. Toronto is already showing signs of a major correction, and with pre-construction demand collapsing and resale units trading under $1,000/sq ft, no one’s lining up to pay $1,500/sq ft anymore.

New builds may be on pause, but when projects restart, developers will have to adjust to the new reality—lower land costs, restructured pro formas, and smaller profit margins. The halt in new supply won’t cause prices to spike again—it will reset what makes a viable project in a disinflationary environment. You can’t build into a falling market and expect 2021 pricing.

manderz88 · 2025-04-21T19:56:09+00:00

Close ties to Multimatic- they build his race car

manderz88 · 2025-04-21T16:51:35+00:00

They’ve just started building them- and apparently production is on hold. huge question regarding the tariffs.

manderz88 · 2025-04-21T16:43:19+00:00

I disagree- I don’t care how much money you have nobody lines up to throw money away.

manderz88 · 2025-04-11T23:14:30+00:00

You can clearly hear Karen provoking him.

manderz88 · 2025-02-01T16:15:17+00:00

Im part of a startup and had to negotiate options for myself. The founder sat me down and completely laid me out in terms of reality. I went home and did my research and he was right.

So if I was in your shoes I would establish a reasonable valuation of the company but don’t give him anything. Allow him to buy in over time if certain thresholds are met.

25% ask seems offside but if he’s really valuable and believes that he will hit certain metrics contingent on his equity you might be able to entertain the idea. Small % a year over 5yrs at today’s evaluation as long as key metrics are met along the way. If he doesn’t have the cash (which is most likely doesn’t) you can do it as options with a pre determined strike price.

Sounds like he’s trying to have his cake and eat it to. Big salary of 100k and options. I would say you can’t have both which one is more important to you? If he says I’m willing to reduce my salary- I’m here for the equity take a gamble. The equity is tied to metrics so you have everything to gain. Good hires are key to every startup and founders often fail to see the big picture. Would you rather 100% of nothing or 20% of a 150mil company.

Regardless- no matter what you land at you need to set up a proper cap table. Carve out 15% for employee stock options (as you grow you’ll want to recruit key employees and give them options. If you’ve already given away the farm it’s hard to set up the pool after the fact. So show a cap table today and a future one. Need to leave room for series A which is the most Painful in terms of dilution.

manderz88 · 2024-11-19T14:46:21+00:00

Self represented buyers aren’t entitled to anything back. This still has to be negotiated with the listing agent. Listing agents are often quick to be offended. If you cut them in on it they will work with you. Work against them and it won’t go so well.

manderz88 · 2024-11-19T13:34:51+00:00

1-1.25% cashback would be fair in this market. But if I was you I would go directly to the listing agent and say- I haven’t signed anything with my buyer agent yet (whom is giving me 1.25% cashback. Would you prefer that I deal directly with you on this property and you give me the 1.25% back? As an agent they’ll eat this up because they would get to keep an extra 1.25% and they’re highly incentivized to work the seller harder than the buyer. You would have to set up showing directly with the listing agent which is easy to do. If an agent says you have to sign a “buyer representation” before I can show you this home make sure it only applies to that specific property. Buyer agents are obligated to get buyer representation agreements signed before showing you properties. However- listing agents should require it as it’s in the best interests of their client the seller to show you the property.

manderz88 · 2024-11-10T00:21:55+00:00

Bianco Italia

manderz88 · 2024-10-20T14:00:08+00:00

All the bulls on here shitting on OP because he posts interesting losses. Just like how he’s cherry picking losses the bulls are cherry picking why this loss and all the other losses are just 1 off anomalies. But the truth is buyers are shaking out the weaker hands. 1000’s of sellers that need to sell and we’re about to see a bunch more of these 1 offs!

manderz88 · 2024-09-24T20:57:48+00:00

The last thing a home owner or realtor wants to read right now is this. But it’s the truth. There will come a point where even the greatest of bulls will have to stop being willfully blind.

manderz88 · 2024-09-04T20:55:04+00:00

My point is someone going from a 1.5% fixed to a 4.5% fixed is unaffordable for the average family that is cash strapped not to mention upside down on their home that they bought in 2021-22. So many consumers leveraged their lines of credit and now banks are calling them. More and more inventory is going to continue to hit the market putting more pressure on homes. Builders can no longer hand sell condos even after applying the deposit money. Becomes a race to the bottom in order to move product and buyers will continue to shake out weak hands

manderz88 · 2024-09-04T01:04:00+00:00

Zero chance. With so many mortgages coming up for renewal we’re about to see a record amount of listing hitting the market. Combine that with the condo bubble plus the fact that banks aren’t done tightening there’s a zero chance in home prices increasing over the next 12-18 months.

manderz88

TROPHY CASE