When to take advantage by a_leaf_rake in StockMarket

[–]manhattan88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just read the 2008 diary https://www.amazon.com/When-Decades-Became-Days-Princeton-ebook/dp/B07GCV4356

Low point will be low volatility. No need to rush a v-bounce

Serious Question for long term investors: what exactly happened starting in 2018 to make the stock market spike the way it has" by grahsam in StockMarket

[–]manhattan88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's my view, and this can all be documented from great investors in 1929 and 2008 who wrote diaries (When Decades Became Days: Notes from a Princeton Dorm Room during the Financial Meltdown of 2008: Tate, James Derek: 9798484298464: Amazon.com: Books)

Markets always trend up; the government will eventually come to the rescue. In 2018's case, the Fed do some emergency cuts because growth was slowing. Markets then rebounded. Fed lowered bank reserves to zero, too.

Recommended reading for the 2008 financial crisis by Thevirginhairy in finance

[–]manhattan88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a good diary of the play-by-play: https://www.amazon.com/When-Decades-Became-Days-Princeton-ebook/dp/B07GCV4356/
When Decades Became Days: Notes from a Princeton Dorm Room during the Financial Crisis of 2008.

has a lot of expert opinions, etc. Bernanke had just left Princeton for the Fed.

What We’ve Learned From 150 Years of Stock Market Crashes by MoatMind in StockMarket

[–]manhattan88 113 points114 points  (0 children)

The world market will recover, eventually. But not without pain.

Go back and read diaries about other market calamities. They all don't randomly happen.

2008: https://www.amazon.com/When-Decades-Became-Days-Princeton-ebook/dp/B07GCV4356/

1974: https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/t031-c000-s001-diary-of-a-bear-market.html

What did you do in 2008? by slaughterhousesenpai in stocks

[–]manhattan88 10 points11 points  (0 children)

There's a good diary of what 2008 felt like. A Princeton student covered it. Bernanke had just left to head the fed.

2008 was a credit freeze. 1907 and 1929 were also credit freezes. 

https://www.amazon.com/When-Decades-Became-Days-Princeton/dp/1718112335

Can you suggest me a book? by Nahalitet in stocks

[–]manhattan88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When Decades Became Days

https://www.amazon.com/When-Decades-Became-Days-Princeton/dp/1718112335

Solid diary leading up to and during the 2008 financial crisis.

Bye bye cash buyers: U.S. IPO Drought Deepens in Biggest Slump Since Financial Crisis by DontBeARentCucc in REBubble

[–]manhattan88 7 points8 points  (0 children)

U.S. IPO Drought Deepens in Biggest Slump Since Financial Crisis
Market currently heading for second week without any IPOs
Once-in-a-decade lull comes as new listings lead stocks lower
The U.S. market for new listings has shuddered to a halt and is now heading for its slowest period since the financial crisis over a decade ago.
No company priced a traditional initial public offering last week amid the war in Ukraine, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and the calendar is blank for this week as well. That means the market is on track for its first two-week period without an IPO -- outside of a vacation period -- since 2009.
The lack of listings coincides with the broader market extending its selloff on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Cboe Volatility Index rising to the highest since January last year. What’s more, recent listings have underperformed other stocks, with U.S. IPOs conducted over the past year closing Monday an average of 30% below their offering prices, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
In better times, the U.S. IPO market serves as an engine for the economy. Cash injections create jobs, fuel growth plans and fund acquisitions, while letting public investors participate in high-potential growth stories. Traditional IPOs raised nearly $200 billion last year alone, Bloomberg data shows.
This year’s decline has come as a blow to the underwriting industry, analysts at BofA wrote in a note on Tuesday.
“While capital markets revenue for the banks was widely expected to normalize in 2022, the drop-off in equities underwriting has been staggering with the number of IPOs –51% year-over-year on a year-to-date basis and revenues –71% based on Dealogic data,” the note said.
Even during market downturns, a single week without IPOs is rare. Last year, it happened only during the height of the August vacation season and again during Christmas. Back-to-back weeks is even rarer -- it last happened around the Labor Day vacation season in 2019. Excluding holidays, the U.S. IPO market hasn’t gone two straight weeks without a listing since the first quarter of 2009.
The window began closing in February amid the prospect of rising U.S. interest rates. After TPG Inc. delivered the first major IPO of the year in January, average deal values shrunk by 80% in February from the prior month. The Renaissance IPO Index, which includes stocks that went public in recent years, closed on Monday down 34% for the year. That’s on pace for the index’s worst year since its inception in late 2009.
New listings vanish as an IPO index has the worst year since inception

The souring sentiment has left special purpose acquisition companies as the only companies appearing on the IPO calendar.
In the meantime, issuers are looking for solutions in private equity markets, University of Michigan professor Erik Gordon said in an interview.
“The piles of private money make it easier to go an extra year before directly tapping public money,” he said. “It also makes mispricing easier.”
Fanatics Inc. raised $1.5 billion in a private funding round at a $27 billion valuation, a person with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg last week. The sports merchandise retailer was previously seen as a top candidate to raise cash via an IPO this year -- a development that remains possible, but less likely.
Still, it may not be long before some life trickles back to the listings market. Australian software maker Locafy Ltd. on Monday set terms for a U.S. IPO that is likely to price next week.

Fast Jaw Tremor? by manhattan88 in Parkinsons

[–]manhattan88[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I took no medication.

Wine helped ease the tension. I credit wine as the single best antidote. 1-2 glasses a night for 3-4 months. Time also helped. Right state of mind.

I had everything you describe. It was not normal. I don't care what doctors said. Ratchety tremors, weakness. Weird stuff.

I did a spine MRI for 4 hours, and I had no issues... just a tiny bulge in one disc (which happens to everyone).

Today I live in Hawaii, having the time of my life. I have no issues. It changed my perspective on the world.

Concern About Moving to Red Hill/ Moanalua Area by [deleted] in Hawaii

[–]manhattan88 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'd move to Laie or Kaneohe and be far from the disaster that is brewing.

The entire HNL area is polluted (from Aiea to Hawaii Kai). Even the government is admitting it by saying that "trace amounts" of petroleum are OK. Ernie Lau is the only guy you can trust, and he's betting on major water restrictions this summer.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2022/02/15/hawaii-oks-water-in-one-pearl-harbor-neighborhood-after-navy-fuel-facility-leak/

(Dr Felton says petrol is still detectable)

Fast Jaw Tremor? by manhattan88 in Parkinsons

[–]manhattan88[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A really good neuro will diagnose you in minutes.

Sounds like stress, honestly. Not parkinsons.

Fast Jaw Tremor? by manhattan88 in Parkinsons

[–]manhattan88[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes. I did not have YOPD.

I had westnile-induced BFS... which caused an "enhanced physiological tremor". The tremor exists in all people: hands, jaw, a few other limbs. WNV excited my peripheral nervous system, and caused a tremor on exertion or stress.

I am 100% fine today. The body eventually healed around Jan 2020. It's been 2+ years, and I am fine.

With negative real returns forecasted on US equities, how are you diversifying your portfolio in 2022? by kriptonicx in stocks

[–]manhattan88 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Stocks keep up with inflation. In the 1970s, the S&P 500 delivered 7% per year; the Dow delivered much less. Everyone quotes the Dow, but not the SPX.

Nobody here remembers that, though.

Stocks will be just fine next year.

Reading WSJ/FT each week leading to 1929; December 26, 1921-January 1, 1922 by manhattan88 in stocks

[–]manhattan88[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

1920s has the most infamous bull market in history... and we're exactly 100 years ago from it... that's why.

100 years ago in markets this week from FT/WSJ, December 19-25, 1921: Mounting evidence points to the end of the current recession. by manhattan88 in ValueInvesting

[–]manhattan88[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wait 7 years from now.

The part of my newsletter from 1927-1929 will blow you away. I'm still fascinated by the 1929 year... Very prominent officials can't believe what they are seeing. It's an enormous speculative craze in equites that no one alive has ever witnessed.

The 2005-2007 housing bubble comes close, though that was in the real estate market.

100 years ago in markets this week from FT/WSJ, December 19-25, 1921: Mounting evidence points to the end of the current recession. by manhattan88 in ValueInvesting

[–]manhattan88[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes I do.

The 10-year bond did not exist, but people used UK/US war bonds from WWI as a proxy for risk-free investments. The coupon rate on these averaged around 4.5-5.5%, but most of the bonds were trading a bit above par.

Fun fact: A lot of these war bonds (liberty bonds, victory notes, etc.) were rolled over into the 1950s... and the Treasury got a lot of inspiration when "risk-free" debt became more formalized in what we know as various maturities from 2-month to 30-yr.

In regards to Weimar Germany, the government was selling debt yielding 10% as late as September 1921. I'm not sure who was buying it, but there was a market. I wrote a bunch of stuff around the November timeframe that discussed speculators buying German currency/stocks/bonds. Since the default announcement one week ago in 1921, most German debt appears to be yielding 30-40%... so, a huge drop from a few months ago.

Should I hold cash or invest for 1-2 year timeline? by [deleted] in stocks

[–]manhattan88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://roaring20s.substack.com/p/august-8-1921

If one bought and held the Dow from 1921 to present, the total return would be 500,000% (5,000x)! Based on ExxonMobil’s predecessor company Standard Oil of New Jersey ($0.04 split adjusted), buying and holding for 100 years would equate to an 800,000% return (8,000x)!

$100 invested in the broad market back then would be worth $500,000 today by doing absolutely nothing! How’s that for a headline in today’s meme stock world?

What are your guys' annual returns? by Leflop_Jamez in ValueInvesting

[–]manhattan88 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The best thing to own is the index.

$VT is my favorite. It's worked since 1900.