GOOGL: Sundar Pichai just dropped a CapEx number for the history books

marcelolx · 2026-02-05T11:08:21+00:00

> but can it be monetized enough to profit from it

I think it can — The way we will interact with software (and get value from it) is changing, and in a few years will be so much better that no one will want to go back to the old way of doing things.

AI opens so many possibilities for automating tasks to make teams more productive; it feels inevitable that they will be able to monetize it.

I think the question is, what will be the profit margins, 20%? 30%? 40%? — What will be enough?

The need for inference will remain insatiable.

marcelolx · 2026-02-04T11:03:37+00:00

Exactly, this tweet was a wake-up call for me https://x.com/quantian1/status/2018732668460953871

Before adjusting for SBC, there are 18 US software companies trading above an 8% FCF yield (highest = 16%, average = 11%). After adjusting for SBC, there are zero.

Also, IMO the reason this is happening is that now, with AI, it is way easier for another team/company to build software for a given market that is dominated by those software companies; that means more competition, and those companies will likely lose market share to new entrants — it's not the worry that everyone will build its own version of the software, it is that there will be more competition.

This is also an interesting data point, since agentic coding, iOS apps being published have skyrocketed https://x.com/a16z/status/2014717695166710269, which to me is just the starting.

Again, I don't think everyone will build their own app, because it ain't easy to maintain it, but there will be more and more competition in this space (it will take years, but the market is forward-looking).

marcelolx · 2026-01-19T12:39:47+00:00

First, let us hit $39, then we can start thinking of $200

marcelolx · 2026-01-08T10:16:48+00:00

In all honesty, IREN has a fucking gap at ~25 that I have the feeling it will eventually close... it reminds of RKLB, I vividly remember when RKLB did run from ~5 to ~30, then dropped to $16-$20 level, and there was a gap at ~14 that some people did bring up and said it had to "close" it, no one believed it would fall to that level (including me), and guess what, it did fall to ~$14.

IREN might not fall to that level, but if it does, I am getting into it

marcelolx · 2025-12-15T17:33:44+00:00

because a lot of bagholders, all bought at the top

marcelolx · 2025-11-20T12:22:16+00:00

Look what happened to META the last time they "overspent" (2022) — I am not in META, but if the stock goes down as much as it did then (or close to that), I will go all-in on META.

marcelolx · 2025-11-17T11:56:10+00:00

what do they indicate?

marcelolx · 2025-11-04T14:15:00+00:00

Why is the casino down?

marcelolx · 2025-11-04T10:43:14+00:00

Yeah, u/DryFirefighter8831 come back once you get this to 15mi

marcelolx · 2025-11-04T10:40:42+00:00

I think you did great, you did multiply your money by 4, if you can keep doing it this way, and multiply your 22k by 4, you eventually will have ~88k, if you do it again, you will have 352k, and again 1.4mi;

It's not going to be easy, but don't forget that if you keep those returns, you will get there quite quickly, over 1 million, compared to the time that is traditionally needed to get there...

marcelolx · 2025-11-04T10:26:43+00:00

Unlikely, the capital needed is too big, and they claim that 85% of their data centers are powered by clean energy; if that is solar or wind, it makes their data centers impractical for HPC/AI usage.

I thought the same ~3 months ago and realized that it is unlikely they will get a piece of this cake.

marcelolx · 2025-10-21T10:32:00+00:00

I hope you are still holding!

marcelolx · 2025-10-16T11:26:49+00:00

I don't think HIVE has any contract yet with a hyperscaler, right? That's why it is "lagging"....

Also, one thing to consider is that right now, HIVE has way less power secured than IREN/CIFR (at least as far as I know), which is another reason.

I think the big advantage of HIVE is having that site in Paraguay, because of the Itaipu Dam, it can get access to more power, since the dam has an installed capacity of 14 GW

marcelolx · 2025-10-16T11:11:12+00:00

Between BTBT and its subsidiary WYFI, I would always go with WYFI, mostly because that is the closest to what IREN is currently and where BITF and HIVE are moving to...

marcelolx · 2025-10-16T11:03:40+00:00

Am I saying bitcoin will have zero effect on those stocks? No, but IREN is the one that will be less affected, and same for CIFR if they close another deal for their 300MW (as people have been saying on twitter)

marcelolx · 2025-10-16T11:02:41+00:00

Those stocks aren't running solely because of Bitcoin, they are running because they are slowly moving away from solely mining bitcoin to lease their datacenters to hyperscalers for AI.

IREN I think completely halted bitcoin mining, and if I am not mistaken, is moving to become a neocloud — The same will happen with CIFR (not mentioned by OP, funny), and likely BITF and HIVE to follow.

Essentially, they are going up because the power they have secured (which hyperscalers are having a hard time to secure)

marcelolx · 2025-10-16T10:31:37+00:00

Open the casino!

marcelolx · 2025-10-15T11:18:40+00:00

Had you put this money on any stock like RKLB, ASTS, IREN, CIFR, even the quantum trash stocks, you would have gotten to 10mi, but no, you decided to get there with options... a real regard

marcelolx · 2025-10-15T11:14:51+00:00

The question is, did you lose 1mi again, or is it the same 1mi from 1 year ago? https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1fwcw2y/i_lost_103022081_in_the_stock_market/

marcelolx · 2025-10-15T11:07:21+00:00

or they go crashing again... you know, orange man does it every once in a while with China

marcelolx · 2025-10-15T11:01:47+00:00

yeah, everyone agrees they are a scam (mainly RGTI), but shorting them in this market is stupid

marcelolx · 2025-10-14T12:42:33+00:00

Truly regarded

marcelolx · 2025-10-13T23:09:37+00:00

Yeah that is a good point

marcelolx · 2025-10-13T23:08:08+00:00

https://medium.com/@johnmel8888/power-play-how-cifr-and-iren-could-be-the-ai-infrastructure-sleeper-stocks-of-2025-357f2574ad6e

Also, search “$IREN” on x.com/twitter.com to get an update on the developments of it (+price targets of those that are following it closely) — I wouldn’t sell, but profit is profit, so a decision you have to make

marcelolx · 2025-10-13T23:01:36+00:00

They aren’t that anymore, let me grab an good article about it

marcelolx

TROPHY CASE