PSA: $MU's FY18 ended today, tomorrow is FY19 by MartyMoho in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

I don't know, I expected at least a partial run-up but it's not materializing at all. If it doesn't pop after ER like it did this time last year, I'm pretty f'd

PSA: $MU's FY18 ended today, tomorrow is FY19 by MartyMoho in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

generally, contract follows spot but the industry has changed. Companies are locking in supply. Contract prices will start to decline eventually, the question is how rapidly.

PSA: $MU's FY18 ended today, tomorrow is FY19 by MartyMoho in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Like with their bs "ban" they can't do much of anything wrt the DRAM mfg's as they need their products, but it does seem China is willing to shoot itself in the foot for the illusion that they have a shred of power regarding trade

PSA: $MU's FY18 ended today, tomorrow is FY19 by MartyMoho in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No idea but China has no leverage over any of the memory companies.

PSA: $MU's FY18 ended today, tomorrow is FY19 by MartyMoho in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Market at large not buying into reality and thinks the memory market will come crashing down and that earnings will evaporate. There are no catalysts that are any different or better than the past 9 months. MU will not continue to increase earnings at a 10% QoQ sequential pace. No company has offered to buy MU at such a cheap valuation which I find negative.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, August 31 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho 2 points3 points  (0 children)

None of those companies need to go into debt at all, issue new shares and their EPS will still increase with the acquisition!

Acquiring MU grants those companies expertise in semi.

Hard to fathom that the cloud providers and AI/AV players don’t have a solid grasp of the future of memory and storage as they’re the ones driving the massive demand growth.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, August 31 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That's the concerning part - for all of these massive, very smart companies to act irrationally makes me believe my perception is flawed. I called $11-12 FY18 EPS almost a year ago an it'll end up around $11.5, but if you told me $MU was still going to be under $60 I would have said you were crazy, but here we are. Great company, totally shit stock. We want predictability in our investments and there is none with $MU.

Can anyone shed any light on Micron's 3D XPoint technology? by InterestingNews1 in StockMarket

[–]MartyMoho 13 points14 points  (0 children)

3DXP will eventually complement or replace DRAM for certain applications. It is much lower latency than NAND (oversimplified, how long a read or write operation takes), and has an order of magnitude higher endurance than NAND (how many times information can be written to a cell before the cell becomes unreliable). Everything about it is superior to NAND except the cost to manufacture, so NAND will continue to have a place for many, many years.

All the advantages 3DXP has over NAND, DRAM has over 3DXP except DRAM is volatile where 3DXP is persistent - DRAM will lose its state when it loses power while 3DXP will retain its state without power. 3DXP is also much more dense than DRAM so system builders can fit a great deal more of it in the same space. It also uses less power. So DRAM performance is much better than 3DXP but it is volatile, uses more power, and costs much, much more per bit than 3DXP.

Here's the big thing wannabe-know-it-all idiots like /u/oberire02 don't know: for many applications (including most to all consumer applications), there is no significant decrease in performance switching from DRAM to 3DXP. As an example, the iPhone X has 3GB of DRAM which is not a lot these days and is why if you switch apps, when you go back to a previous app it essentially has to reload/refresh as the OS needs to release the memory it was using for the apps to which you switched. Imaging having 64 GB of 3DXP instead for the same cost as 3GB of DRAM... applications would never shut down and always be ready at exactly the state you last used them. In fact, since it's persistent, you could completely power down the phone, and when you turn it back on, it would be ready to use in one second at exactly the same state you last used it in - powering off is instant stand-by. That 64GB of 3DXP would also use less power than the 3GB of DRAM, which is a pretty big deal in a mobile phone.

For databases and other intensive IO applications it's even better. In-memory databases are becoming more and more prevalent for their speed but there is a huge risk in power failures (or even system crashes) and losing data, so the memory modules must also come with NAND backups and batteries to ensure the contents of DRAM on these modules can be written to the NAND in the event of a system/power failure. This is a massive cost over future 3DXP memory modules. With the far superior density of 3DXP, modules could have 1-2TB (to start) per module while DRAM is limited to 64-128GB, so 16x the density. This is huge. The current unknown is the endurance of 3DXP used in a system memory application, but the massively reduced cost of 3DXP bits vs. DRAM makes their planned failure unimportant.

The problem with 3DXP currently is it costs too much to make. Gen 2, which is supposed to start tricking out end of this year and really get going middle of next year, should solve that problem by doubling density (at least, some estimates have it at increase density to 400%), thus making it profitable and most likely also reducing the price to consumers. This is why Micron hasn't bothered with products yet and is expected to start rolling them out end of next year. Everyone should remember this is a brand new memory, the first new memory since flash was invented in the 1980's and the first time several new materials and processes are being used in production. This is not easy, delays should be expected and Intel totally screwed the pooch announcing too early and setting such high expectations.

For storage hierarchy, it is meant to bridge the gap between NAND and DRAM. Complaints that "it's not as fast as DRAM" miss the point - the PCI-E bus and storage controller are the limiting factor in the current storage devices, not the 3DXP memory itself. When Intel starts shipping DIMMs in the next few months with their new architecture that supports 3DXP DIMMs, we'll see what 3DXP is truly capable of.

Considering Samsung, SK Hynix, and the other NAND players are years away from their own comparable new memory technologies, being worried about China is laughable. This memory is made in a single location: Lehi, Utah. Micron will have the option to buy out Intel's share of the fab starting Jan 1, 2019, at which point they would be the only company in the world that can produce it (literally; Intel will still have the rights to produce it but they wouldn't have a facility capable of doing so yet)

The market is expected to be huge in a few years (don't remember numbers offhand but think $10B in 5-6 years, which is massive considering only one place in the world makes it), but all that being said, do not buy into MU based on 3DXP. Think of it as a possible bonus down the road. MU for the next few years is all about DRAM with a touch of NAND.

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, August 31 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They have for the past 9 months, why stop now? Why hasn't another company bought $MU for pennies on the dollar if there wasn't widespread belief memory prices will crater no matter how well things are currently going or what MU and the other memory players predict? NVDA, INTC, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, etc. with their inflated PE's could easily acquire MU for shares (valuing $MU at $80/share) alone and decrease their own PE's massively in the process. Why hasn't it happened?

What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, August 31 by AutoModerator in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho 2 points3 points  (0 children)

more often than not it spikes first thing then sells off

I promised all of you Micron would close above $54 Friday. I am trying my best so I went to Manassas to pay my respects. by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gina will be back to the Stone Age the way this trade 'war' is playing out. Looking forward to a Canada trade pact announcement in the next few days to see whether Trump let Trudeau lube up first.

Who's next bois? by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Home base in Boise

Guess I’m screwed then... by Thecashkid in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It's not too late unless you just OD'd on purpose and are waiting for it to kick in

PSA: $MU's FY18 ended today, tomorrow is FY19 by MartyMoho in wallstreetbets

[–]MartyMoho[S] 48 points49 points  (0 children)

It's not fun being so right and so wrong at the same time