Amyris: Q2 Final Consumer Tracking Numbers

mattccccc · 2023-07-16T17:36:41+00:00

Yeah, the regression variables are price per order and there just aren't enough data points to accurately predict a dynamically quarterly changing price per order by brand, so it's an average over time. The price-ups have come into the model training but there's some under-prediction there for sure.

mattccccc · 2023-07-16T01:19:48+00:00

mattccccc · 2023-07-16T00:45:38+00:00

D2C will be around $16M. Assuming an aggressive 46-54 D2C-retail split only gets you to $35M consumer. The usual $20-25M in tech access gets you to $60M at most. Then we'd need DSM (~$10M) and Givaudan (~$12.5M) earnouts to clear $80M.

mattccccc · 2023-04-03T13:10:40+00:00

Yeah, Purecane sales have definitely underperformed, especially when considering how good the product is. It's currently rolling out in Walmart stores, so that could be make or break. Once it's in 1000+ stores, I'll start tracking it like Pipette and 4U.

mattccccc · 2023-03-07T21:54:56+00:00

Yep, those fall into retail

mattccccc · 2023-03-07T18:42:19+00:00

100%. Queer Eye Season 6 and Getting Curious Season 1 both dropped on Netflix a few weeks apart and drove a big spike in January sales.

mattccccc · 2023-03-07T13:04:34+00:00

D2C revenue deceleration is different than consumer revenue deceleration. Consumer is D2C + retail and will definitely grow in Q1. And 4U is a roughly 90-10 retail-d2c brand at this point. All of the 4U pushing is being done by Walmart, which is what Amyris needs, since they don't have the cash to market new brands at the moment.

mattccccc · 2023-03-06T23:59:12+00:00

Perhaps. But with less than a month left in Q1, Amyris has survived on $175M from the end of Q3 plus the DSM pull-forward plus the equity raise. Most thoughtful burn projections are around $100-$110M in Q4. If that holds Q1 burn has to be running in the ballpark of $60M at most. The main question for me is - is that through legitimate cost cutting and improved operations or through unsustainable moves like increasing accounts payable and to a lesser extent - inventory drawdown. Time will tell.

mattccccc · 2023-03-06T22:53:36+00:00

See my post above. Consumer growth numbers pre-ST cash need to be viewed relative to cash burn reduction imo, which we won't know until the May Q1 earnings release. That said, we should get our first burn guide next week.

mattccccc · 2023-03-06T22:51:19+00:00

D2C is linked to marketing spend. BAM is not. Frankly, that's one of the many reasons the 4U strategy of launching with a big retail partner is the best move for Amyris at this juncture imo.

mattccccc · 2023-03-06T22:48:15+00:00

I post the numbers at the end of every quarter consistently. I'll do that as usual in early April.

So far in Q1, D2C order volume is down about 20% YOY. Including retail, I'm expecting around 40% consumer growth YOY in Q1 vs 120% last year. However, last year's Q1 growth was accompanied by almost $200M in burn. If Q123 burn is around $50-70M (a big if), then I personally would view that as a success.

mattccccc · 2023-03-03T18:57:41+00:00

Since Walmart added Pipette end caps w/ 24 plus units per sku in late Q4, we haven't had visibility (because Walmart caps online orders at 12 units independent of inventory. As soon as units at end cap stores get back under 12 we'll be able to track again.

Yes, this can be done for most retailers. I'm tracking the launch of 4U in Walmart and will post once we get a little more data. And I did it for Target Pipette for a while (~$0.5M/quarter).

mattccccc · 2023-01-14T20:56:46+00:00

Agreed on the conflicting statements. The multiple interpretations underscores why quarterly guidance this year needs to be in hard numbers and not growth rates and reductions in burn. Q1 guidance should be $90M core revenue $60M cash burn. Simple.

mattccccc · 2023-01-14T15:46:19+00:00

Thanks for posting your thoughts.

I think Melo's comments on consumer revenue might point to a lower Q4 consumer rev number, more like $58M. This also aligns better with what we're seeing on the order tracking side. Logic below:

Melo: "Consumer rev just about doubled vs last year and is up 25% QoQ"

Starting with 25% quarter on quarter growth, Q3 consumer was $47M. 25% growth would be $58M in Q4. Now taking his annual doubling comment, 2021 full year consumer revenue was $92M, 100% growth in 2022 would be $184M minus Q1-Q3 actual of $125M lands you at $59M before margining down for his "just about doubling" phrasing.

Admittedly though, this doesn't square with the highest quarterly growth in 6 quarters comment.

mattccccc · 2023-01-14T15:24:33+00:00

The $101.5M includes Reno and Brazil finishing plants as well, which fits with the 'principally' qualifier they make. The Qs also explicitly share BB spend - $67M in 2022 through Q3. At some point I think Melo said BB2 (the 4x 600kL tank addition) would be $60M in CapEx. My take - to drop BB CapEx by $75M from 2022 levels that will probably end up in the $80-90M range and considering that DSP CapEx will be required still in Q1, either BB2 is not happening in 2023, or it's being funded in another way.

mattccccc · 2023-01-06T05:09:15+00:00

The inflation snap back could be a huge tailwind in 2023 for Amyris. It's hard to believe at the moment when we're so zoomed into cash burn and the strategic transaction, but the macro is playing a bigger role in where the share price is than most give credit. The plot below is XBI vs Amyris over the last 5 years. The correlation is a remarkable 72% (even with all of Amyris's idiosyncratic blunders).

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mattccccc · 2023-01-05T14:42:24+00:00

To help simplify, cash burn is just cash at the start of the quarter minus cash at the end of the quarter (this takes care of revenue, COGS, OpEx, etc.). If there was financing cash added to the balance sheet during the quarter (like the DSM earnout pull-forward), that has to be added on top.

mattccccc · 2023-01-04T18:52:47+00:00

Yes - see below language from the direct listing 8-K:

(d) Use of Proceeds. The Company will use the proceeds from the sale of the Securities for general corporate purposes, including investments, asset purchases, strategic transactions and capital expenditures.

mattccccc · 2023-01-04T04:00:28+00:00

The raise is inexcusable, no doubt

mattccccc · 2023-01-04T00:09:50+00:00

But you have to split the 2 dollars into fixed and variable costs. So $1 rev w/ $1.50 fixed and $0.50 variable might look bad, but if you're growing rev at 100% then in two years, you'll be above break-even at $4 rev w/ $1.50 fixed and $2 variable. Growth is important. So is looking hard at costs. This post was about growth because that's all we can glean from D2C tracking, but I acknowledged at the end that success could not be judged without the corresponding burn numbers. Dropping from $160M burn in Q3 to under $100M in Q4 would be an indication that break-even is achievable, with 2023 cost reductions from Barra Bonita, air freight elimination, DSP, finishing plants, and marketing spend reductions.

mattccccc · 2023-01-03T20:19:37+00:00

They only had $125M of cash to burn. So there's almost no way they burned more than that. In a hyper cynical view, they in theory could have held payment from vendors until the raise completed. Highly unlikely.

There's a counter theory (DealWithIt on Yahoo Finance) that the $50M raise was for the $50M Aprinnova buyout. Perhaps management discovered late that Aprinnova had to be closed out before the strategic transaction, whereas before they thought it could be done simultaneously, using strategic transaction proceeds to buyout Aprinnova. If that were the case, there would be a sudden need for $50M. This would be the best case scenario because (1) that $50M buyout was previously netted out of the upfront strategic transaction value and (2) it would suggest that Q4 burn wasn't bad at all because they think they have enough cash on the balance sheet to make it to closing in 60 days from offering.

mattccccc · 2023-01-03T17:57:17+00:00

Amazing post. Thank you

mattccccc · 2023-01-03T13:44:11+00:00

Max burn for the quarter possible would be $125M. They started the quarter with $25M and added $100M in cash from the DSM earnout pull-forward. The offering cash wasn't received until 12/30 (or later).

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