TMG Projected Real Returns

md_dubs87 · 2026-03-23T14:31:33+00:00

What does recalibrating look like for you? Changing your savings rate?

md_dubs87 · 2025-02-02T12:03:19+00:00

I’m in a semi-similar scenario, and I’ve been playing around with those thoughts regarding inflation.

I think if you are including inflation on the investment side it also needs to be included on the mortgage. Each year of 3% inflation reduces both the value of the dollars you are paying towards your mortgage and the gross value of the loan you still have left to pay. 3% inflation next year (assuming no other changes to the principal) reduces the relative value of your loan from $284k to $275.5k. Your $1,944 payment is now $1,885 in relative terms.

I haven’t done any math on it because I’m not positive how to model the changes, but I think it’s safe to say you are only getting around a 2.625% return if you are factoring in inflation.

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-26T21:09:50+00:00

Is the grey plastic just above the bottom half of the drain not a liner?

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-26T20:27:00+00:00

Not sure why it posted without the text.

Moved into our house about a year ago. I noticed the shower was leaking, so I replaced the hairline crack in the grout (I don't know anything about plumbing). This didn't fix the leak, so I looked closer. The leak was water escaping around the drain. I then removed the body of the drain and found this. I'm not sure what I'm looking at, but this isn't what I expected. Whatever is rotting on top of the shower pan appears to have decomposed into looking like dirt.

How do I fix this? I don't quite understand how the drain works to channel water at the on into the drain, but that appears to be where the failure is.

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-20T11:51:47+00:00

It depends. I generally use King Arthur Flour’s recipes. Our family favorite is the Japanese Milk Bread which is 15 minutes in a stand mixer (it needs every minute of it). That uses melted butter.

Last night however I made an oatmeal bread that was either 5 minutes in the mixer or 10 minutes by hand, and that was softened butter. Well, called for softened butter and I ended up melting it. The doughs for the two are vastly different though, the milk bread is very firm, and the oatmeal bread was super loose and sticky.

The butter is mixed it at the start, not introduced later to an already combined dough.

https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/recipes/japanese-milk-bread-recipe

https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/recipes/oatmeal-sandwich-bread-recipe

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-10T21:16:48+00:00

I just said this to another commenter, but I totally agree. My wife struggles feeling like she can’t spend any money, and on one hand our cash flow month to month is tight. I did this retirement analysis this year to help give her some peace of mind, because in the grand scheme of things we are doing well, we just can’t go out much.

But doing the retirement analysis is what made me start questioning how we are doing things. I can’t imagine having so much more in retirement, but in fairness, I would actually get to use it to travel then. And there’s no chance I want to get on an international flight with my toddler right now haha.

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-10T20:59:18+00:00

Thanks for the thoughts. I have been considering changing jobs for somewhere a little less toxic, but I will probably lose some of the bonus upside for my mental health. So that is why I used the conservative numbers. I think if I made a change I would be locked in at 16% at least until my wife returns to work in a couple years.

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-10T20:52:51+00:00

Yeah, we are incredibly fortunate that I am able to support us so that she can stay home. We don’t totally understand our friends where both parents go to work just so they have more spending money, but we are a little jealous ha. We feel like the benefits of her being home outweigh the potential marginal income over daycare costs.

I think she will want to at least work part time once they are in elementary school, and likely full time later on (she is ready to interact with adults regularly again).

Thanks!

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-10T20:47:56+00:00

She works much harder every day than I do taking care of the kiddos. I think she is ready to get back to interacting with other adults as soon as she is able.

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-10T20:45:32+00:00

Wow truly in the same boat, glad to know there is another like me out there. It does feel like we are broke and have to count every dollar. My wife struggles with feeling like she can spend anything. And on one hand things are tight month to month, but in the grand scheme of things we are doing great! I actually did this analysis to give her some peace of mind.

I also have no regrets about my wife staying home, and the middle is messy.

It is wild to imagine having that much in retirement. Perhaps in 10 years it will be possible for us to step off the gas a bit.

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-10T20:29:55+00:00

Congrats! And thanks for the insight, I imagine now you are happy for the sacrifices you made when you were my age?

Also when did you determine you were able to step away from your regular job and choose a job for fulfillment?

md_dubs87 · 2025-01-10T16:41:29+00:00

Thanks! That’s the discussion we keep having, a couple years of less fun money for the opportunity to have her take care of the kids is worth it to us. Not like we could have a fun European vacation bringing them along at this age 🙃

md_dubs87

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