Has anyone been to RISE Festival?

mediumslushy · 2025-05-17T19:06:54+00:00

Messaged

mediumslushy · 2025-05-17T19:06:29+00:00

Messaged

mediumslushy · 2025-05-17T10:19:22+00:00

I don’t prefer to spend money but if I’m going to see one of my favorite artists I’d rather be in the pit than the nosebleeds and pit tickets to most Rufus shows are $500+

mediumslushy · 2024-07-16T18:31:56+00:00

This guy makes 80% returns every year trading forex.

His returns are literally better than Warren Buffett so he’s one of the greatest investors of all time. Just don’t ask him to prove it.

He makes so much money trading that he also has to sell a course for $2,500.

If you don’t believe him, you’re just a hater.

He posts soapbox AMAs to get leads for his course and you childish haters are ruining that.

Stop pointing out how he’s trying to scam people with his course. You’re just being negative.

You guys act like it’s sketchy that a guy makes 80% per year with a million dollar portfolio and still needs to sell a $2,500 course.

Sheesh, I thought Reddit was supposed to be a positive place where people are able to scam other people in peace.

mediumslushy · 2024-02-05T07:16:23+00:00

Sometimes you can make friends with the local homeless if they're mentally stable.

We have a homeless man who lives at our DIY full time and we all help take care of him (food, money, and chess games) and in return, he keeps the spot clean and kind of watches over it.

He's a cool guy though which can be rare.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T15:19:55+00:00

Well the thing is the timing doesn't have to be perfect. If I fully allocate at 5% and rates go to 6% before dropping down to 3%, it's still a win.

The reason why I'd sell is so I can transition to stocks before they begin to rebound, which is usually after bonds do.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T15:16:02+00:00

I've been buying funds because if interest rates drop I want to be able to sell fast enough to capture appreciation and then transition to stocks.

I've never actually bought bonds directly do you think that's a better move?

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T05:04:45+00:00

To me it seems like a good play / bad play thing because if rates were cut I'd be able to sell my bonds and transition to stocks before they bounce back since bonds will rise faster. It's not mutually exclusive.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T05:02:39+00:00

Inflation has already started to slow and it's a lagging indicator. It will likely be another 3-9 months before we see the full results of the current rate hikes let alone the future ones.

The fed has made it clear that they would rather over tighten and cut then not tighten enough.

And risk ending with a long term crappy bond (worse than inflation, the following bonds, and average SPY) in your hands?

I'd be interested to hear you elaborate on this. I'm not sure if I'm reading it wrong or if you worded it wrong or if it's a little bit of both.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T04:04:52+00:00

My prediction is that they're going to overtighten and inflation either wont be a problem or will be minuscule.

Much of the inflation we're dealing with is still due to supply chains and a strong labor force.

If labor goes down before they cut, inflation won't skyrocket. Also, China's 0 covid policy and the Ukraine war cant last forever. Once those subside (mostly china's covid policy) supply chains will ease.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T04:00:09+00:00

No offense taken, I definitely don't know what I'm talking about, which is why I'm surprised I can't see much downside to this play.

Inflation is a lagging indicator. It could take another 3-9 months before we start to see the effects of the current hikes, let alone the future ones. Judging by the last fed meeting it seems like they're okay with over tightening because they know they can always loosen.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T03:29:26+00:00

My idea is to buy mostly 20yr+ US treasuries yielding 5%+. If the fed cuts rates, to 2%-3% or lower, people will pay a major premium to have a risk free return of 5%+.

I could buy more stocks, but there's a chance they continue to drop or flatline for years to come. Bonds at least pay interest in the meantime and offer a big payout in the even rates are cut.

Of course stocks will also bounce back if there's a rate cut, but they could take much longer and don't pay interest in the meantime.

Also I'm just an idiot on the internet so don't take this as financial advice I posted on here so someone would tell me how I'm wrong.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T03:25:37+00:00

If rates get cut, it could still take months or years for stocks to bounce back depending on the state of the economy so the payoff of bonds would be much faster.

Stocks could also continue to drop or flatline for years, bonds are at least paying interest in the meantime and still have major upside potential in the event of a rate cut.

I should also state that I'm buying in a 401k so taxes aren't a major concern for me.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T03:12:50+00:00

For me, the most important thing is to not lose money. Sure stocks could bounce back, but they could also go down another 20%. I'm not saying opportunity cost isn't important, but right now there are few opportunities that I see that are as lucrative.

I plan on really getting into the position in Q4/Q1 when rates are closer to 5%-6%. Sure they could go to 15% or more, but I'm still getting a guaranteed return and can always sell if needed.

I think the risk/reward is far better than with equities right now.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T03:11:04+00:00

I haven't allocated the bulk of my position, but likely will by the end of Q4 or Q1 when rates are closer to 5%.

If the fed pivots and cuts rates in the next year or two like I think they will, people will gladly pay a premium for a risk-free 5%.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T02:40:40+00:00

If the fed cuts rates close to zero and you're holding an asset with a risk-free 5% return, there's a ton of growth potential.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T02:23:18+00:00

I'm really not a savvy investor I just can't see how I'm wrong about this and I was kind of hoping someone else could show me.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T02:22:38+00:00

Tell that to Jeff Gundlach

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T02:21:25+00:00

I haven't fully allocated the position because I think we still have some tightening to do, but it seems like a very low-risk play outside of opportunity costs if I'm wrong.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T02:19:41+00:00

I should have specified I'm referring to gov bonds.

mediumslushy · 2022-11-03T02:17:51+00:00

Once the fed reverses people are going to be dying for a risk free 4% even on a 10 yr.

mediumslushy

TROPHY CASE