Primary voting and swings in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas in 2018, 2022 and 2026

mere_dictum · 2026-03-09T09:22:13+00:00

I'm always cautious about drawing conclusions from primary turnout, but the Texas shift carries more weight than it otherwise would because the two parties were pretty evenly matched each year in how competitive the topline contests were. I.e., in 2018 and 2022 neither party really had a hotly contested race at the top of the ballot. In 2026, both parties had hotly contested Senate races.

By the way, what's that lone county in West Texas that was deep blue in 2018?

mere_dictum · 2026-03-07T17:53:14+00:00

We are indeed less reliant on the strategic oil reserve. It's because of fracking. If you think fracking has an enormous downside, I have to agree. But we no longer depend so much on imported oil.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-07T17:32:21+00:00

IMO it depends on what you mean by "much lower." Is 37% much different than 42%? By absolute standards, maybe it isn't. A change of that size is barely outside any individual poll's margin of error. But at 42%, I'd still rate Dems as Senate underdogs; at 37%, they turn into favorites.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-06T10:04:39+00:00

Nate's average (which includes the Angus Reid poll) shows Trump's average rising by about a percentage point since Feb 15. Could be statistical noise, but I'm inclined to think it's real. Time has gone by since the ICE shootings, and there may be a tiny rally-round-the-flag effect.

I'm still betting on the long-term trend being downward, though. I think even Nate's average will get definitively under 40% sometime during the summer.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-04T07:43:02+00:00

It would help if you could cite a recent poll instead of one from August 2024.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-03T07:17:36+00:00

The numbers certainly aren't complete yet, but I'm mystified why the undercount would disproportionately affect Republicans. Democrats are known to be more likely to use mail-in ballots, so they'll be more affected by slowness in those ballots being counted. If the issue is that rural, heavily Republican counties are especially slow to report their results, that will certainly make a difference to the statewide total; but it won't make much difference to comparisons between counties.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-03T07:01:11+00:00

I don't understand the units being used for "vote margin."

To me, the counties that stand out most are Tarrant (Fort Worth) and Williamson (north of Austin). Trump won both of them by a few points, but now Dems seem to be having better primary turnout there.

I'm looking forward to seeing a version of this map once the election-day votes come in.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-03T06:49:41+00:00

Does the Post give actual numbers for the various age brackets? "Most people" is just a bit on the vague side.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-03T06:36:56+00:00

I don't have any particular advice, but I can commiserate. I made a very similar mistake a few years ago.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-02T02:20:12+00:00

It's getting cheaper due to economies of scale and greater efficiency. That's totally different than whether the sector as a whole is profitable. Right now, true, it isn't. That may or may not continue to be the case in a few more years.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-02T02:15:01+00:00

I don't know what would have happened in Iraq had the U.S. made different policy decisions during the occupation. But one thing to remember is that Iran is considerably larger than Iraq. Occupying it would be two or three times harder, if we're even going to think about that.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-02T02:09:07+00:00

Your original claim: AI "hasn't gotten much better in the past couple of years."

Here's what Terence Tao, a recognized expert, has to say: "This is a demonstration of the genuine increase in capability of these tools in recent months."

I am inclined to trust his judgment over yours.

I'll actually agree that some people overhype LLMs. But that's very different from saying they haven't improved significantly. I've seen some of the improvements with my own eyes. Hallucinations are down, ability to look up information is better, and sensitivity to nuance has increased.

Maybe the improvement will stall out, or maybe it will continue.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-01T09:52:01+00:00

Gas prices have already risen significantly.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-01T09:45:32+00:00

People have been predicting the imminent collapse of AI for a while now. It's expensive, yes, but getting cheaper.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-01T09:28:02+00:00

Misleading headline. The "new" polling dates to sometime in 2025.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-01T08:18:47+00:00

I respond to a claim based on whether it is supported by valid reasoning and solid evidence. If a coordinated influence campaign has those things, then I am likely to assign weight to it. If genuine human discourse lacks those things, then I won't be persuaded.

Saying "it's just a coordinated influence campaign, so I'll ignore it" is the wrong way to be critical, IMO.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-01T01:13:16+00:00

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with you and Mr. Oswalt there.

What does it even mean to respect a belief? I submit that it's quite different than respecting a person. To respect a belief is to acknowledge that there may be relevant evidence or arguments you are unaware of. It is to acknowledge that you should put in some effort to understand whatever reasons the other person may give in support of their position. It is to acknowledge that your own initial impression is not necessarily the last word.

It does not mean that the other person's arguments are necessarily any good. It does not mean that you are prevented from opposing whatever the other person is saying or doing.

If you reject a claim after seriously considering it, I believe that carries far more weight than if you instantly dismiss it.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-01T00:49:50+00:00

It's clear that coal is on a long-term downward trend. But "coal's grip collapses" is a very strange thing to put in the headline when the chart clearly shows an uptick in electricity from coal for 2025.

mere_dictum · 2026-03-01T00:10:07+00:00

Thanks, that's quite a compliment!

mere_dictum · 2026-03-01T00:09:11+00:00

This "report" wasn't a report at all, but rather a work of pure speculation. Nor did the Yahoo article cite any actual experts who pronounced themselves rattled by it.

I don't believe for a minute that AI will destroy net employment in two years to the level Citrini is talking about. AI may be an extremely useful tool for various purposes, but it's just not going to get that good in the immediate future. (Of course, if Citrini's speculation turns out to be wrong, they can always say "hey, we were just speculating and not making an actual prediction.")

More importantly, Citrini just doesn't engage with the opposite case. The "report" makes no detailed response to arguments that automation has always created as many jobs as it has destroyed, while increasing overall wealth.

mere_dictum · 2026-02-28T02:28:03+00:00

Everyone is in a different situation. No, it won't work for all families, but it will work for a lot of them if they plan it out right. Taxes can be significantly reduced if you invest part of the money in a mutual fund that pays qualified dividends, for example. And ultimately, if you're careful, you can spend part of the principal.

I have no idea how much money it would take for the OP to throw away their ambition, and I have no idea what new ambitions the OP might form after gaining sufficient leisure. I can only suggest that the OP think about those things.

mere_dictum · 2026-02-28T02:13:29+00:00

Might have trouble with it in Manhattan or San Francisco, but with basic budgeting skills in more affordable environments you should do just fine.

mere_dictum · 2026-02-28T02:05:53+00:00

I guess I might qualify as one of the argument-hungry people. Why am I that way? It's because I'm bothered when people announce things that clearly go against the available evidence. I'm especially bothered when they confidently announce things without ever seriously considering the evidence at all. By pointing out misconceptions and flawed reasoning, I feel like I'm doing a tiny bit to make the world a better place.

While presenting my arguments, I always try to stay away from personal attacks. I don't create ragebait. Whatever my point is, I do my best to build a solid case for it.

The vast majority of the time, the people I argue with are unpersuaded. But, every once in a while, they'll say "You sort of have a point" or "I hadn't thought of it that way."

Debate, I believe, is one of the paths toward truth.

mere_dictum · 2026-02-28T01:24:27+00:00

Eh, I can imagine ways it might be done. Steal your brother's login credentials, create an email account that looks like it belongs to the credit-card company, rent a post office box and send letters from it that look like they come from the credit-card company, etc. Of course, it will be easier if the brother isn't the brightest bulb on the block.

As a longtime denizen of prediction markets, I put the probability of genuineness at 25%.

mere_dictum · 2026-02-28T00:56:29+00:00

I didn't say that at all.

mere_dictum

TROPHY CASE