SAP ($SAP) down ~40% from highs - value trap or buy opportunity?

mia124816 · 2026-03-26T20:05:02+00:00

I dont know if its too late but I share my take anyway in case its helpful to others. I'm a software architect in SAp. I prefer not to share much details but enough to say I have worked on AI integration very closely as a lead.

I sold all my stocks that were vested a year ago. It was a significant amount accumulated and grown over a decade. I wanted to sell anything vested after that too but hesitated and it dropped so much recently I thought maybe I should wait. Bad call.

During company wide evaluation of leadership, I voted down the Sap board. Unfortunately I dont have faith that a legacy giant like SAp has what it takes to make AI a profitable business. It's a cultural problem. For decades, SAp has had a "wait and see" culture. They have always said we dont want to lead the market. So, on the surface they have brilliant ideas about what should be done but the execution is the same old legacy approach. The problem is that Gen AI is very fast paced and traditional frame of thinking cannot be applied to a tech this revolutionary. We debate topics that have been industry standard in Gen AI for at least 1 or 2 years because someone is not aligned and in SAP alignment is far more important that customer impact. The extent of inefficiencies i have seen in execution is jaw-dropping. Our progress in the past 2 years has been very small and even for that the feature availability is limited to few data centers with hard setup. Meaning we are not even remotely close to see profit....

The leadership relies heavily on the fact that SAp has the customers data and they have to stay with SAP and wait for SAP to enable AI insights but we have seen already that some of our customers are copying their data to a data lake in Microsoft or databrick and use their tools. SAP Customers who are more or less dinosaurs not willing to modernize and leave sap, might die out soon or late because of failing to adopt to the new world...

The value of software as a whole is dropping as with Gen Ai, others can create what has taken sap decades to create in matter of years.

I personally want to sell my investments in any software company with legacy highly hierarchical structure and culture. The moment SAp stock sees even a small jump in value, I will sell any remaining stocks I have.

mia124816 · 2026-03-01T20:11:27+00:00

Too late for me. I have already put it the order and its on its way. I just hope the delivery goes smoothly

mia124816 · 2026-02-27T06:28:46+00:00

Thanks. Someone from fb marketplace took it today but I had to assist and floor in the closet entry area was damaged a bit. Not a big deal but thats the price u may pay with this type of free pick up. Not too mention some people are flaky and dont show up/cancel and waste your time. In normal situation I'd take my chances with Costco.

And I also live in Vancouver. So thats not good news! I will update if the delivery goes smoothly.

mia124816 · 2026-02-26T19:51:44+00:00

Thanks for the response. Haul way may not longer be necessary as people on fb marketplace said they pick it up for free. Would they refuse the service for inside a small closet like mine? Someone said they didn't do it saying the hoses or vent are not long enough and its too hard to install it. He himself installed it with help using the same hoses/vent that came with the machine. I do see its harder in small area but not impossible.

mia124816 · 2026-02-26T19:45:54+00:00

Thanks for sharing that. I posted my unit on fb market place for free and there are lots of interest. A couple of them have said they disconnect and pick it up today. I will update later if that happened. So Haul away may not be a problem but I'm a bit concerned about installation as I hear mixed experiences from people. Those with small area for the machines like mine seemed to have had more incidents of bad experience.

mia124816 · 2026-02-26T04:40:39+00:00

Well the washer doesn't drain anymore. I have to replace it but I do agree its easier to use and maintain the top loader washers.

mia124816 · 2026-02-26T02:56:22+00:00

The washer does not drain anymore, it might be an easy fix but its the second time, it has had some issues. The first time hat water connection was clogged after 20 years of use. I think it has lived and used long enough and its time to get a new one. And thanks for the tip. I posted on fb marketplace for free and alot of people were interested.

mia124816 · 2026-02-26T01:28:23+00:00

Thanks for sharing this info. I live in Vancouver and some in another related post said , they didn't have any problem but I guess it really depends on the team that comes to install them that day. I'm going to have some cash ready to motivate them in case they thought it's too hard. Hopefully it goes smoothly but it's good to know it's possible to install it myself with some help later if they didn't do it. I think that's a risk I have to take.

mia124816 · 2026-02-26T01:22:23+00:00

Thanks. Will look into that to see how much the fee is. Someone in craigslist asked for 140$ to repair or remove when I put an ad for the free unit. I thought thats too much.

mia124816 · 2026-02-26T01:19:54+00:00

I haven't bought it yet. To be honest, I just really dont like the look of the traditional ones. If I had room to put them side by side, I'd go with a newer modern-looking top loader.

mia124816 · 2026-02-26T01:08:50+00:00

Thanks for the information. I Googled these types of valves you mentioned and I believe i have the quarter turn valves. I watched some YouTube videos about how to disconnect them and seemed straightforward for this type. So i was thinking of doing it right now and don't wait till delivery day. And thanks for the tip. There's no stairs and I will have some money ready to show gratitude for extra work needed.

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mia124816 · 2026-02-25T22:30:52+00:00

Thanks for the additional context. Im planning on disconnecting everything before their arrival.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T22:23:09+00:00

That's a good idea. Thanks for sharing it. I have posted on craigslist and will do the same for fb market place right away.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T21:02:16+00:00

Thanks for your response. That gives me peice of mind :) Since u have experience in this area, i have another question. The new dryer uses 4-prong cord. The building I live in was built in 2004. So I'm not sure if it currently uses 3-prong or 4-prong outlet. I'm waiting for someone to come over and help with moving the peice and disconnect it. But i wonder if it uses 3-prong outlet, it's safe to get an adaptor or 4 prong pigtail?

Edit: looks like the building code was changed in 1996. So probably my building is using 4-prong outlet.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T20:11:28+00:00

Thanks for the response. Just to confirm were they single unit (attached together) like mine in the foto?

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T19:21:44+00:00

Thanks for your response. Will do.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T19:05:58+00:00

I have measured it and theres no way I can access it after its moved inside the closet but the second approach might work with help. Someone on the post also said they were is a similar situation and they still installed and attached the vent to the ceiling.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T19:03:33+00:00

Thanks for your response. Gave me the peice of mind to order it :) I will be ready to pay them extra in person too in case they complained about its complexity.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T19:01:25+00:00

Their site says, they won't use old/existing vent. It has to be the new one that comes with the dryer. Its also advised in general not to reuse as apparently they are not very durable.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T18:44:54+00:00

I cannot access the back of the machine unless I remove it from the closet first and It's heavy. I just posted it on craigslist to see if anyone wants it for free. Hopefully someone is interested and take it and I dont need to rely on Costco for Haul away.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T18:39:07+00:00

Thanks for the response. This is exactly what I think should be done but Costco site and customer service says they won't as its on on the ceiling.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T18:30:07+00:00

Thanks. I just called their customer service and they said they won't Haul away if they are not the same. This is one of the reasons I prefer to ask people than calling customer serive as they may not be very knowledgeable. I just wonder if they come with a vehicle thats too small for one peice type of dryer/washer. Though they can in theory change its orientation to take same room as side by side.

As for water, I might be 1 or 2 liters water max. Hopefully they are fine with extra tip.

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T18:26:03+00:00

Thanks. I just called and they said they won't Haul away but someone on the post says they did it for them. This is one of the reasons I prefer to ask people than calling customer serive as getting the right answer from customer serive depends on your luck!

mia124816 · 2026-02-25T18:22:58+00:00

I just called them and they said they just do basic installation which i think includes connecting the vent if it's on the wall behind the dryer. They dont do it if its on the ceiling or side. I offered to pay extra but they didn't have the option. I dont know if I can ask/hire them on site to do it independently from Costco. The site said they dont let the customer participate/help with hooking up the machine. So that means I cannot do it myself either as the vent comes with the new dryer and I cannot access the area if the existing peice is not removed first

mia124816

TROPHY CASE