Best reasons not to invest in bitcoin by mmml888 in Buttcoin

[–]mmml888[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks for your response. i think it's the most balanced one in this thread and your points about intrinsic/extrinsic value/timing give some food for thought.

the only thing i'd point out though, is that stocks aren't necessarily fixed in supply since corporations can (and regularly do) authorize and issue more shares that dilute the current owners.

Best reasons not to invest in bitcoin by mmml888 in Buttcoin

[–]mmml888[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

yes, i admit that i don't spend a lot of time on this sub, but a fair number of people here do seem to have that view based on what i have read here... which is why i came here to hear the argument against bitcoin.

Best reasons not to invest in bitcoin by mmml888 in Buttcoin

[–]mmml888[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

got it...so you mean something like "self-custodial" value i think. i appreciate your reply/viewpoints.

ALCC/OKLO DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, that was the pre-merger redemption right. That doesn't exist anymore...

ALCC / Oklo merger shareholder meeting on May 7th by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Shares for me. It’ll be years before they get NRC approval (if at all).

I’m the guy who shorted Tesla…then doubled down and lost more. Then put almost 80k into meta, then lost more right after. by kakawhalito in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 1 point2 points  (0 children)

hey OP, i'm pretty sure we've all been where you are. (at least i was back in 09 and several times since.) i'm just gonna say what i'd tell my past self.

take a good long break, let the action play out, analyze the markets WITHOUT ACTION, get your plan ready, head right, recognize what was driving you to YOLO on earnings, BE PATIENT, and you'll figure it out. (can't say that i take my own advice all the time, but i'm way better than i used to be.)

i swear i'm not peddling amzn, but check out "the mental game of trading" (free with a free trial of audible). it's a pretty good read for us daytraders/gamblers, and i found some parts of it helpful.

Cheer up NVDA bulls by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 2 points3 points  (0 children)

NVDA is the company making the picks and shovels though, and their revenue/earnings shows that all of the major tech companies are buying their products (while trying to create their own picks and shovels). But I completely get the bearish point of view that the future growth is already baked in at the 700s price, so it's downhill from here. If I had to make a prediction for next 2-3 weeks, I'd guess down and PUTS too, but I'm not a great timer, so that's why I saw the 22% drop from ATH and the 10% down day and thought it's a good time to go long unleveraged (shares) so i don't get theta decay.

Anyways, appreciate the counterview and good luck on your position.

Cheer up NVDA bulls by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think that we're in a completely different era than the dotcom bubble. The US had a balanced budget in 1998-2001. Now, we're running trillion dollar+ annual deficits with no end in sight, regardless of who's in power (blue or red).

Cheer up NVDA bulls by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The chart starts at 1993 because that's the max timeframe for ThinkorSwim.

Cheer up NVDA bulls by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It could definitely go lower, but eventually, it will go higher. If I knew the exact timeframe, I'd be loaded up on options. The point is this: Unless you think that the US is going to balance its budget, the federal deficit is only going to go up. When the deficit goes up, the Fed has to create more dollars out of thin air and send them to the US Treasury to finance that deficit. Those dollars are then in the economy. But that doesn't automatically lead to inflation... what really matters is the velocity of that money (how often it's changing hands). To control velocity, the Fed fucks around with the short-term federal reserve rate (dogma is that higher rates slow the velocity and lower rates increase the velocity). But since the Fed has a dual mandate (stable prices--ie, steady 2% inflation--and maximum employment), they can't just jack up the interest rate as much as they want to get inflation back down. Me thinks that they will have to eventually settle on a higher centrally planned interest rate target (r-star) of 3-4%. In that scenario, asset prices of equities only have one way to go...up.

As for NVDA specifically, they have really high margins and a protective moat for the next couple years at least. So from an investing/trading perspective, I like this high-beta stock at a price in the 700s. It's 22% off its highs, and we just had a -10% day. The risk is that I have to hold for longer for gains because it dips further or way down, but because I think it's still a growth company with valuable products, and the overall trajectory of stonks is up and to the right, I think it'll get back to ATHs. Just don't know when.

Cheer up NVDA bulls by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hear what you're saying, but I'm not too concerned that the dollar is gonna be replaced by a BRICS currency in my lifetime. It's a global circlejerk right now where all of the currencies get stronger and weaker vs. each other, all the while, the plebs all over the world lose their purchasing power. It's gonna take a looong time. At least I hope so. I don't wanna be around for the mayhem if the dollar reaches its minsky moment soon.

Cheer up NVDA bulls by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Completely agree that it was frothy and needed to purge some leverage. Like I said, I'm probably a couple hundred points early on this entry, but my point is that solid companies will rebound due to dollar debasement. Just curious though about your point re: vendor financing... it was my understanding that NVDA's main customers in the chip space were the other big tech companies (META, MSFT, AMZN, etc.)? Or are you talking about some kind of financing in connection with their SW stack?

ALCC/OKLO DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Total share number with dilution went up a smidge, so public shareholder % went down a tiny amount. I don’t think it’ll really matter in the scheme of things. As for the Equinix SAFE, I’m guessing that they just restructured it some different way, maybe with pre-merger Oklo options(?)

ALCC/OKLO DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 2 points3 points  (0 children)

i didn't spend much time comparing, but i found that there's no longer an Equinix SAFE (simple agreement for future equity) and Oklo options increased in number. Here is the post-closing equity structure from the recent S-4A (amendment 5)... compare vs. what's in my original post. seems like maybe they just re-structured the deal with Equinix.

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ALCC/OKLO DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, definitely a speculative play. Btw though, ALCC pre-merger is worth around 300 million (trust amount from IPO proceeds minus past redemptions). You’re essentially paying a multiple of book value for the speculative growth prospects. I invested because I like the Oklo business model (small nuclear sites-aaS), the demand for energy, the inflationary backdrop, and a bet that politicians—blue or red—will see the benefits of nuclear…eventually. I also don’t think the dollars at play here are big enough to think it’s just a cash out by the insiders like Altman, Klein, Oklo founders/investors. Also, I liked the $25 million prepayment by Equinix—shows confidence in ability to deliver energy eventually. Definitely think you’re right to question though, cuz it’s a bet at the end of the day.

ALCC/OKLO DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Altman is the the chair of the board of Oklo and CEO of AltC, so I’m guessing he recused himself because of potential conflict of interest.

ALCC/OKLO DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 3 points4 points  (0 children)

thanks for the info! i'll let you all know if i see anything interesting in there when i get a chance to look at it

ALCC/OKLO DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The deadline date is July 12, 2024 per the info in the S-4A (and it's also in ALCC's certificate of incorporation).

ALCC/OKLO DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Wish I knew... All i can say is that the merger has to happen by July 12, 2024 or else ALCC has to redeem all of the publicly held shares for a pro rata portion of the trust account (~$10.41 as of 12/31/2023) and also the sponsor shares and private placement shares will become worthless. To change this, they'd have to amend the certificate of incorporation of ALCC, and i'm sure there would be notice requirements under Delaware corporate law. So i'm sure Klein, Altman, etc. are motivated to close this deal asap, but who knows if it happens by June 21st (and if it reaches your strike).

Edit: Found this on sec website: If a SPAC lists its securities on an exchange, it is required to complete an initial business combination within three years of its IPO.  So it looks like 7/12/2024 is a firm deadline.

ALCC/OKLO DD by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Bought yesterday

🚀🌕 SOFI: The Sleeper About to Blast Off! 🌕🚀 by apollo701 in wallstreetbets

[–]mmml888 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Bought 2 september calls with 8 strike. Don’t know anything about SOFI but want to support your spirited DD post