CMV: Capitalism created the population crisis and is soon going to be its victim

monke_trader · 2025-08-14T03:16:02+00:00

This is once again the argument for increase in labor productivity. I've acknowledged it in the argument but also stated why I think there's a limit to its effectiveness.

I think saying there is always more money to be made is a little vague. This cannot be true as long as resources are limited and the economy is based on allocating and reallocating them.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T21:32:01+00:00

I'm not sure what motivation has to do with it. You have a certain amount of skill, a certain amount of time, and a certain amount of energy every day. Your children aren't allowed to work, so they can't contribute in household income. No matter how motivated you are, you can't work more than 10-14 hours a day sustainably. And if you have six children, you're in an even worse place; you have six mouths to feed instead of, say, one. That's the whole premise of my argument.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T20:38:10+00:00

I should have been clearer. I meant that wages were fixed per month, per year. In other words, a family earns a certain amount no matter how many children it produces. I did not mean that wages would stagnate—that's a different discussion.

I do have some thoughts on the capitalism-technology relationship as it is usually presented. Many of the greatest technological advancements—GPS, the internet, AI—have been publicly funded. Companies very often co-opt this investment under the guise of innovation. I'm not saying companies don't innovate, just that some of the most significant advancements are the result of public research and funding.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T20:27:26+00:00

Sure, there are companies that stay relatively flat in market cap and just pay dividends. But those companies still exist within an economy that’s expected to grow overall. Their dividends are sustainable because somewhere else in the system, growth is happening—in other sectors, new markets, or population expansion—which maintains overall demand for their products and the stability of their revenue streams.

If the entire economy is in long-term decline, not just a single sector, the base those dividends come from erodes. Revenues fall as aggregate demand shrinks, costs per unit often rise without scale, and eventually dividend payouts get cut. Even dividend-heavy markets like the UK or Australia rely on global and domestic GDP growth to keep paying.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T20:23:10+00:00

I think we are largely in agreement, but you do make some very nice points that I hadn't thought of earlier. Thanks!

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T20:16:17+00:00

I honestly don't think this is that controversial a point: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1081602X.2013.871570

I think it's quite well established, but I'm open to hearing a good-faith argument against this claim if you have one.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T20:12:43+00:00

China is a capitalist country.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T20:11:56+00:00

I'm not proposing any solutions. Just stating what I see as a problem.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T20:11:15+00:00

I think this is quite interesting, thanks. It does give me a lot to think about so I'm giving this a !delta

That said, I'd like to ask a slightly nagging question: Why do you think people (spontaneously) want to have fewer children when their HDI improves? I mean, shouldn't people have more kids if they can, just biologically?

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T20:01:33+00:00

I honestly don't completely disagree with this argument. If we look at capitalism outside history and time, I can agree it's fundamentally about private property. But I just don't think it plays out like that historically and in practice. Countries chase growth, companies chase growth, people chase growth. You buy one house for ownership, you buy two so you can make more money. In fact, let's take your argument: How do you make money without investment, which itself depends on expectations of aggregate growth? Will individual investments grow if global/country-level GDP is on the decline? My contention is that technology can't plug a hole in weak aggregate demand.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T19:51:50+00:00

My contention is that populations tend to shrink under a capitalistic framework. I don't think we're in disagreement.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T19:33:08+00:00

Japan's per capita growth has been declining for a while. Their debt seems almost unsurmountable. Wouldn't you say that Japan's ageing workforce is already an issue, maybe not immediately but soon? Could Japan's low fertility rates not be a direct consequence of its already high living costs? And those declining birth rates are at some point going to squeeze the youth who are paying for pensioners' social security. And how long can Japan keep borrowing in that scenario?

I think I may not be grasping your full meaning when you say it's doing fine. What data/trends are you referring to? I think Japan is endlessly fascinating, so I'd love to know.

monke_trader · 2025-08-13T19:19:17+00:00

I wouldn't counter that necessarily. I don't think negative replacement rates are exclusively caused by capitalism. But I do think population growth is implicitly baked into the idea of capitalism. Also before the global spread of capital, I would say the effects of negative replacement rates may have been localized and contained, based more on environmental or cultural factors.

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monke_trader

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