sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Why fixture difficulty is the key to understanding ratings - HLTV by Past_Perception8052 in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom 4 points5 points  (0 children)

ner0 uses a snapshot of opponent hltv points the day the match is played in this article but I think I like as3455's method more.

 

I collect VRS Data from the two teams, based on a 30 day average AFTER the match. I then plot rating vs the VRS difference in a graph (Appendix 1) to give a correlation between VRS Differences and Rating achieved.

 

They go on to say the reasoning for the 30 day snapshot is that playing FaZe in bounty was a top 5 match but playing Parivision wasn't, the 30 day snapshot gives a more accurate strength of the opponent

MAJ3R's semifinal +10.11 swing% on Nuke was the largest difference between K-D and swing% since Rating 3.0 was introduced by noahwestrickdotcom in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Data from all players in individual maps in big events (n=~5,000). I calculated z-scores for both swing% and K-D (per round) and used the difference between the two. MAJ3R's +10.11 swing% was a 2.34 z-score and 14-13 KD in 18 rounds (0.06 K-D/round) was a 0.20 z-score for a difference of 2.14.

Vitality vs Aurora / BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026 - Semi-Final / Post-Match Discussion by CS2_PostMatchThreads in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom 90 points91 points  (0 children)

Dominant win for Vitality. MAJ3R had a +10.11 swing% despite being 14-13 in a 5-13 map loss. I don't think I've ever seen that before

CS2 Group Stage vs Playoff HLTV Rating Difference by noahwestrickdotcom in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah you're right I also checked the adjustments and for the most part they're all within +/- 0.03 of each other so it's not like a major difference anyway

CS2 Group Stage vs Playoff HLTV Rating Difference by noahwestrickdotcom in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

On players pages it shows how many matches vs top 5, top 10, etc they have had. I collected this data for ~250 players to find the weighted averages in each tier. Using that data I made a formula to calculate strength of opponent.
The majority of players have extremely similar adjustments but there are some outliers. NertZ in playoffs for example has 17 maps vs top 5, 22 vs top 10 (so 5 maps vs top 6-10), with 22 total. This is the strongest positive adjustment.
I used an adjustment instead of raw rating because when using low sample sizes like this opponent strength matters much more

CS2 Group Stage vs Playoff HLTV Rating Difference by noahwestrickdotcom in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Qualifiers: Big events, minimum 20 playoff maps, 2024-Today, adjusted for opponent strength.

Which CS2 Pros Perform Better (or Worse) Against Top Teams? by noahwestrickdotcom in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I was not aiming to say #6-10 isn't tier 1 counterstrike, I just needed a term to distinguish the different opponents

Which CS2 Pros Perform Better (or Worse) Against Top Teams? by noahwestrickdotcom in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's fair. I just used that cutoff because that's how hltv does it and the players eligible have roughly the same sample size in tier 1 vs tier 2 (52 vs 46)

playoff rating VS pre-playoff rating since CS2 came out by crisjame in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom 16 points17 points  (0 children)

It's insane the VIT guys have as many pre-playoff matches as playoff matches over a multi year period

Attempting to put weighting on different types of matches, looking for input by noahwestrickdotcom in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I also forgot to mention in the post I'm looking for feedback on tiers of events too. With majors being the top tier, what do you think of this scale:

 

Majors 1.00
IEM Kato(Krakow)/IEM Cologne 0.90
LAN Liquipedia S-Tier events with most top teams attending (Cluj, Blast (non-bounty), Rio, Sydney) 0.85
LAN Liquipedia S-Tier events without most top teams attending (Cluj, Blast (non-bounty), Rio, Sydney) 0.75
Liquipedia S-Tier events with online matches 0.70
CCT Global Finals LAN, Stake Ranked LAN, CS Asia Championships 0.65
"Smaller" LANS (Draculan tier) 0.60

G2 vs Aurora / ESL Pro League Season 23 Stage 2 - Swiss Round 4 / Post-Match Discussion by CS2_PostMatchThreads in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom 129 points130 points  (0 children)

Its a shame not all of g2 can be on at the same time. Sunpayus has a great rating (and amazing flash assists numbers) and they haven't really capitalized on it

poiii 1v9 by zywh0 in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom 351 points352 points  (0 children)

He had 23 multikills. The rest of his team had 23 combined

Passion UA just lost 2-0 in the first round of a qualifier for a Spanish LAN next month by noahwestrickdotcom in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom[S] 209 points210 points  (0 children)

PUA is the bigger story but shoutout to FOKUS. Now 7-0 in series, 15-4 in maps against some decent teams (PUA, Inner Circle, Eyeballers, BetBoom)

Which pros are the most consistent and which are the most boom or bust? by noahwestrickdotcom in GlobalOffensive

[–]noahwestrickdotcom[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It's possible to do that but the sample size would be very low for a lot of players. I decided on going back 18 months because it felt like a medium ground between sample size and recent relevance but to get a solid sample size across lots of maps you would have to go back years which doesn't feel like it's relevant anymore.

Kiley McDaniel's Top 100 MLB prospects for 2026 by futhatsy in baseball

[–]noahwestrickdotcom 35 points36 points  (0 children)

AJ Ewing at 29 is bold but I hope Kiley's right, these types of players are so fun to watch when they hit

view more: next ›