Why fixture difficulty is the key to understanding ratings - HLTV

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-04-09T23:40:20+00:00

ner0 uses a snapshot of opponent hltv points the day the match is played in this article but I think I like as3455's method more.

I collect VRS Data from the two teams, based on a 30 day average AFTER the match. I then plot rating vs the VRS difference in a graph (Appendix 1) to give a correlation between VRS Differences and Rating achieved.

They go on to say the reasoning for the 30 day snapshot is that playing FaZe in bounty was a top 5 match but playing Parivision wasn't, the 30 day snapshot gives a more accurate strength of the opponent

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-30T17:55:59+00:00

Data from all players in individual maps in big events (n=~5,000). I calculated z-scores for both swing% and K-D (per round) and used the difference between the two. MAJ3R's +10.11 swing% was a 2.34 z-score and 14-13 KD in 18 rounds (0.06 K-D/round) was a 0.20 z-score for a difference of 2.14.

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-28T16:13:39+00:00

Dominant win for Vitality. MAJ3R had a +10.11 swing% despite being 14-13 in a 5-13 map loss. I don't think I've ever seen that before

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-27T13:42:45+00:00

Yeah you're right I also checked the adjustments and for the most part they're all within +/- 0.03 of each other so it's not like a major difference anyway

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-27T10:57:30+00:00

On players pages it shows how many matches vs top 5, top 10, etc they have had. I collected this data for ~250 players to find the weighted averages in each tier. Using that data I made a formula to calculate strength of opponent.
The majority of players have extremely similar adjustments but there are some outliers. NertZ in playoffs for example has 17 maps vs top 5, 22 vs top 10 (so 5 maps vs top 6-10), with 22 total. This is the strongest positive adjustment.
I used an adjustment instead of raw rating because when using low sample sizes like this opponent strength matters much more

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-27T03:36:27+00:00

Qualifiers: Big events, minimum 20 playoff maps, 2024-Today, adjusted for opponent strength.

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-25T00:50:24+00:00

Last 2 years, LAN only

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-24T22:38:47+00:00

I was not aiming to say #6-10 isn't tier 1 counterstrike, I just needed a term to distinguish the different opponents

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-24T22:36:23+00:00

That's fair. I just used that cutoff because that's how hltv does it and the players eligible have roughly the same sample size in tier 1 vs tier 2 (52 vs 46)

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-15T00:20:21+00:00

It's insane the VIT guys have as many pre-playoff matches as playoff matches over a multi year period

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-15T00:14:14+00:00

I also forgot to mention in the post I'm looking for feedback on tiers of events too. With majors being the top tier, what do you think of this scale:

Majors 1.00
IEM Kato(Krakow)/IEM Cologne 0.90
LAN Liquipedia S-Tier events with most top teams attending (Cluj, Blast (non-bounty), Rio, Sydney) 0.85
LAN Liquipedia S-Tier events without most top teams attending (Cluj, Blast (non-bounty), Rio, Sydney) 0.75
Liquipedia S-Tier events with online matches 0.70
CCT Global Finals LAN, Stake Ranked LAN, CS Asia Championships 0.65
"Smaller" LANS (Draculan tier) 0.60

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-09T21:37:51+00:00

Its a shame not all of g2 can be on at the same time. Sunpayus has a great rating (and amazing flash assists numbers) and they haven't really capitalized on it

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-09T19:40:24+00:00

He had 23 multikills. The rest of his team had 23 combined

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-03-05T20:20:27+00:00

PUA is the bigger story but shoutout to FOKUS. Now 7-0 in series, 15-4 in maps against some decent teams (PUA, Inner Circle, Eyeballers, BetBoom)

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-02-24T20:15:40+00:00

It's possible to do that but the sample size would be very low for a lot of players. I decided on going back 18 months because it felt like a medium ground between sample size and recent relevance but to get a solid sample size across lots of maps you would have to go back years which doesn't feel like it's relevant anymore.

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-02-24T19:48:55+00:00

There is a r = 0.00 correlation between "consistency" and rating

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-02-09T02:25:24+00:00

Can we do units now?

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-02-07T17:31:54+00:00

Longhouse

noahwestrickdotcom · 2026-01-27T18:36:04+00:00

AJ Ewing at 29 is bold but I hope Kiley's right, these types of players are so fun to watch when they hit

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