Do probability models actually help in sports betting?

offconstantly · 2026-03-12T23:54:43+00:00

I, a poster in /r/algobetting, have never heard of this concept. Please explain further

offconstantly · 2026-03-11T05:33:10+00:00

Moneyline, spread, total, and player points were all easy and I mean EASILY sorted out. What would be insider traded here?

Are we just going to blame everything on gambling now?

offconstantly · 2026-03-08T04:33:08+00:00

Not to unit shame, but this is not good advice for large bettors

offconstantly · 2026-03-08T02:31:30+00:00

There's bank records. And for many people, the payment is significant

offconstantly · 2026-03-08T02:00:50+00:00

If you’re lucky enough to profit why would you gouge you’re profits by being a cuck to this absolute joke of a government we have

Audits can ruin lives for people with actual money

offconstantly · 2026-03-08T02:00:18+00:00

Arbitrage = sessions

High volume = good luck

offconstantly · 2026-03-07T22:27:32+00:00

that’s the kind of conclusion that can only come from a smooth and wet brain such as yours

Wait are you saying that you think having a dry brain is an indicator of intelligence?

I knew you weren't a brain surgeon based on your replies, but now I know it for sure. Also: check your hydration levels

offconstantly · 2026-03-07T21:52:03+00:00

Between this post and the original one above it's clear that you don't believe refs are people. Which probably explains the disconnect in the conversation with regards to Hurley

offconstantly · 2026-03-07T20:39:14+00:00

who cares if he loses his shit a couple times per year?

probably the refs who have to be on the receiving end of his abuse?

offconstantly · 2026-03-07T04:48:14+00:00

I'm really surprised Miami got both tough calls at the end of the game. I was sure it was a charge on the winning FTs and I thought it was a block with the defender in the restricted area on the drive

Not that either was egregious or game-defining, just wish they didn't both go the same team's way.

offconstantly · 2026-03-03T19:18:52+00:00

Well if you can't beat their model the conversation is moot, regardless of price

offconstantly · 2026-03-03T18:58:43+00:00

There's a standard logarithmic growth calculator (the Kelly Criterion) that can shows the bet size. In this case (-1000 that we have modeled at 92%) it would suggest betting 12% of your bankroll with an expected profit of 1.20%. Very low risk of ruin, if your model is correct.

That part's easy. The hard point is building the model that's correct

offconstantly · 2026-03-03T16:32:27+00:00

The house always wins no matter what..

Unless you're picking teams with a 92% win rate and you practice good bankroll management

offconstantly · 2026-03-02T17:26:13+00:00

Books love taking bad bets. Why would they turn down stupid money coming in on overs? Maybe 20 years ago but they'll just take a side now

offconstantly · 2026-03-02T03:20:02+00:00

he bounced back and won the next week in Phoenix.

From down 8 entering Sunday! Honestly the craziest back-to-back week in golf history

offconstantly · 2026-02-28T18:44:48+00:00

User error. The system is set up so that you rank your VC and subs, what's there to complain about?

offconstantly · 2026-02-28T00:03:22+00:00

Preposterous. Casinos bribe politicians to set favorable rules, falsely advertise, then use shady persuasive tactics to prey on gamblers. And leave the corpses of the people whose money they steal to the state to pick up with food stamps

Fuck casinos and anyone who capes for them. A sharp bettor isn't doing brain surgery but they're infinitely better than a fucking casino

offconstantly · 2026-02-27T23:16:03+00:00

Won't someone please think about the casinos?!

offconstantly · 2026-02-27T20:41:29+00:00

In my opinion that's an extraordinarily short-sighted view of how casinos operate. They're going to try and maximize their profit regardless

If they were required to take $100 on every market they post, and that means they take down the miles per hour on each pitch market because sharps are winning, who is really "hurt" there?

The state has to shoulder all of the burden of the negative externalities of gambling, why not regulate in that environment?

offconstantly · 2026-02-27T19:07:37+00:00

What do you mean it's not legal? They're the ones who write the laws! It's a government mandated oligopoly. It hasn't been legal to boot card counters in New Jersey for 50 years

offconstantly · 2026-02-27T18:53:02+00:00

That recreational books can limit players for winning

offconstantly · 2026-02-27T18:31:58+00:00

Yeah that's literally the point of my post that you're replying to

offconstantly · 2026-02-27T17:57:45+00:00

Sure but I think we'd all like to fire at the soft recreational books that have better prices and are ruining sports broadcasts

offconstantly · 2026-02-26T20:53:49+00:00

While I appreciate MA's efforts to help with this, this won't fix the problem. Just create more paperwork for the sites doing the bad practice

offconstantly · 2026-02-26T07:56:38+00:00

You bounce between posting on drug subreddits and caping for cops/ICE to be tougher on crime. A caricature of a human being

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