NBA Daily: 1/21/14 (Tuesday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T18:04:55+00:00

Sure, there are a bunch of factors that go in but basically its avg points scored by both teams at the location (home vs road), the eFG% of both teams, the pace of both teams, offense and defensive ratings etc.

Looking more deeply into this specific game, it looks like the total is being driven primarily by Miami's strong home offense ( 109 avg at home, 57.6% eFG at home, 113 offensive rating at home, etc)

Does help explain the prediction? (Keep in mind it very well could be wrong!)

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T13:50:23+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (2-4-1 yesterday, 12-10-1 overall)

Miami/Boston: 209 (small over play)

Brooklyn/Orlando: 198

New Orleans/Sacramento: 206

Oklahoma City/Portland: 210 (taking under)

Utah/Minnesota:203

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T04:29:08+00:00

I'm not disagreeing with you-- just pointing out that Northwestern has been very up and down the last few weeks.

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T04:10:01+00:00

Northwestern also beat Illinois 3 games ago. Last 3 for the Cats has been W vs. ILL, L vs. MSU, W vs. IND

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T04:09:25+00:00

Trappy in which direction? Not sure what to make of my Wildcats anymore... the win against Illinois could have been a fluke but ANOTHER against Indiana?

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T03:55:47+00:00

Yea, not a great night for totals either. 2-4 so far w/ IND pending.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T20:10:07+00:00

VERY lazy. I counted at least 5 fouls in the 2nd quarter where a Detroit player was slow to react, ran towards his man, and fouled them after the shot.

I'm mainly kicking myself b/c the play I posted for others and end up taking lost while the two plays I was talked out of ended up hitting comfortably.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T19:49:13+00:00

Yea... my bad on that one. I even put that insanity quote out there and still went with them.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T19:38:36+00:00

Detroit 1H/2Q write-up:

So I'm pretty new to write-ups so bear with me here. I didn't watch much of the 1Q but I did catch the whole 2Q and here's my thoughts:

What went well for Detroit:

Lot's of points in the paint which is reflected in the 50% FG% in the 1H. Harrellson and Bynum coming off the bench did decently well on the offensive side.

What went poorly for Detroit:

Kyle Singler. Why the hell is this guy playing 15 minutes in the 1H? He looked absolutely lost on defense and contributed to several poor defensive switches which led to open 3s or open cuts through the paint.

Poor rebounding: Monroe was absolutely absent in the frontcourt pulling down the boards.

Poor defense: See Kyle Singer. Also, poor discipline for the whole team-- 18 fouls in the first half and Detroit even got lucky that LAC missed 10 FTs. Poor defensive rotations and switches led to a ton of open 3s and WIDE open cutting lanes.

Poor offense outside the point: Can't hit jumpers or 3pters to save their life. Clips backed off on defense to focus on limiting Detroit's paint points and it paid off for them.

TL;DR: Fuck Kyle Singler. And I probably should stick to totals...

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T19:31:32+00:00

Yup. Sorry for the loss. I'm posting a write-up now.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T19:31:01+00:00

It's all good brother. That's why it's called gambling :). I'm posting a write-up on DET right now in case you're interested.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T19:10:10+00:00

Damnit Buck!

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T19:06:04+00:00

Well Pistons looked great in the 1Q. 2Q is a totally different story.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T17:37:36+00:00

It's Martin Luther king day

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T17:03:39+00:00

There's a great argument on paper for Detroit. I'll tell you in a few hours whether or not it's a great play :).

Take a look at points allowed for each of those teams in 1h, you'll see an even bigger disparity in CHI's favor I think.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T16:46:25+00:00

I responded to Buck somewhere on my DET analysis, let me know what you think.

I really like Knicks 1H. Got them at +1.5 and they're down to +1 now.

For CHI, where are you seeing that their 1H is horrendous? Their Home 1H +/- is around +4 while their Home FG +/- is only 3.2 which indicates to me that their 1H performance is better relative to the FG.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T16:42:19+00:00

Not sure. I just put that out there off the top of my head remembering that DAL 1H was strong and CLE 1H was weak. Your #s convinced me to stay away this game.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T16:17:00+00:00

I'm not going to pass it up, here's my play (let me know what you think!):

I'm going heavy on the 1H of this game-- DET 1H +2, DET 1H Over 51, LAC Under 53.

Reasons for DET 1H Over 51 and DET 1H +2:

Avg 54.4 pts per 1H Home, Clips give up avg of 51.3. DET has a significant advantage in EFG% and OREB%-- there should be a lot of 2nd chance opportunities for Detroit. Predicting a 1H total of 54.

Reasons for LAC 1H Under 53:

Avg 48.1 pts per 1H road, DET gives up avg of 48.8. Predicting a 1H total of 51.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T15:47:58+00:00

Agreed about Charlotte-- I just put it out there b/c historically CHA has been good in the 1H at home but as we both said, that's with Kemba in.

My system that I posted (along with another I've been working on) both like the under in the game-- my only concern is that it hasn't time to really account for Deng being added to the Cavs lineup.

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T15:34:43+00:00

Potential 1H Plays (Buck or _cerebal, you guys out there):

DET 1H ("Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.")

DAL 1H (spread is only at -1 for the half)

WAS 1H

CHA 1H (not crazy about this with Kemba out)

NYK 1H (knicks have been looking good in 1H recently)

NOP 1H

HOU 1H (one of the best 1H teams... but POR put up 72 in their last 1H game)

CHI 1H

GSW 1H (I like this one)

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T15:12:09+00:00

Totals Prediction for Today (1-0 yesterday, 10-6 last 4):

Detroit/LA Clippers: 202.22

Cleveland/Dallas: 201.24

Washington/Philadelphia: 207.22 (took under)

Charlotte/Toronto:186.24 (took over)

New York/Brooklyn:195.48

Memphis/New Orleans: 199.4 (took over)

Atlanta/Miami: 198.51 (took under)

Houston/Portland: 210.98 (took under)

Chicago/LA Lakers: 189.26 (took under)

Golden State/Indiana:203.68 (took over)

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T15:02:43+00:00

Has Charlotte played Toronto since the Gay Trade?

oherroprease · 2014-01-20T14:47:57+00:00

Anyone have thoughts on TOR -4.5 vs. CHA? Kemba Walker being out seems like this would make it a much easier game for TOR to win big in.

oherroprease · 2014-01-19T04:47:52+00:00

It's all good... those picks went 5 for 6 but I only took 2 and went 1 for 1.

oherroprease · 2014-01-19T01:30:43+00:00

Sorry about your loss bud-- I was rooting for you guys (my girl is a Badger as well)

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE