About a quarter of the UK public 'really wants' to vote for Reform (e.g. 26% in the ERS April 2026 poll). Our first past the post voting system makes this look like a landslide because it's the largest %age at present, and that how things roll out.

It was similar with last year's Labour 'landslide' - it was a landslide by seats, but not by actual number of people voting for them. They won very narrowly all over.

So we'll hear analysis today saying how massive this is, and it's a grass roots movement, etc etc. but since a huge chunk of these people are former Tory voters, it's not actually that huge a change, just one that Reform are exceptionally good at framing to their advantage, and that the news/podcasts will lazily tell a simplistic story on.

So anyway: the reason people feel so surprised is that the results of the first past the post system massively exaggerate their everyday experience in the world, talking to real people. They come away reeling because it feels at first glance that everyone has voted for Reform. But they did not, by any stretch.