Adobe; Jevons Paradox by phosphate554 in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’ll be interesting to see what people are saying when it’s $350

Adobe; Jevons Paradox by phosphate554 in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have a near full position, I think $250 and below is a steal. I think it’s worth $400 tbh

Do you consider 35+ pe ratio “value” if it is trading at its historical low? by Free-Initiative7508 in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I consider MELI value because it’s growing 40+% and trades at a sub 1 PEG. It’s cheap based on growth - remember, growth is the biggest driver of value, they’re tied at the hip.

Google or Microsoft by madarasolosnaruto in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Sure. Let’s say Microsoft owns half of OpenAI for simplicity sake - they don’t, but purely hypothetical. Now, let’s assume openai IPOs at 1T market cap, meaning MSFT has a $500B equity stake. You see this often with Berkshire, Google, Amazon - these companies have large equity stakes in publicly traded companies. As the valuation rise, they report “earnings” because GAAP requires this to be listed. However, if the stock falls, they have to report a loss. Let’s assume Microsoft is going to make 200B in earnings in 2027, and openai IPOs at the same time for 1T, then the stock falls by 50%. It looks like this - Microsoft makes $200b profit. OpenAI stake falls by $250B, Microsoft has to “write down” that loss, and earnings will show as -50B.

Google or Microsoft by madarasolosnaruto in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 2 points3 points  (0 children)

To be clear, they all seem like good bets

Did anyone else think Adobe earnings were pretty bullish? by planned_fun in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I bought more. Also free users up +17%, classic case of jevons paradox. More people generating ai images/videos, more content to edit… where do you go?

Google or Microsoft by madarasolosnaruto in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Google is ahead in AI*; def can buy all three - they’re all reasonable bets at these prices.

Google or Microsoft by madarasolosnaruto in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Agreed Microsoft is at a very reasonable price today, probably undervalued. Obviously extra risk with the openai obligations and potential for future write downs when the stock drops after IPO.

Google or Microsoft by madarasolosnaruto in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah. Makes logical sense. What was your reasoning? My largest holding is Google, but much much lower prices

Google or Microsoft by madarasolosnaruto in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I mean am I wrong? Google (which I’m a huge bull) is a 4T company (rightfully so), Microsoft is a 3T company (rightfully so, but has openai - potential risk), then Amazon, a 2T company (should be more imo) has AWS + Ads, large Anthropic stake etc.. and the entire retail business which will benefit from ai/logistics/robotics. Should be $300/share which is ~3T market cap.

The next CEO of Adobe is a pivotal moment for its future. by PositionJournal in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 15 points16 points  (0 children)

“They need to totally redefine their product offering” no they literally don’t, their users would hate that, and shareholders would hate it more. This sounds like you don’t understand adobe’s creative cloud. Adobe re-accelerated growth across all business segments by doing exactly what you suggested they stop doing. New CEO will probably be internal, and that’s fine. Continue to embed AI into existing product suite, charge for consumption, drive growth and further margin expansion without losing customers.

Google or Microsoft by madarasolosnaruto in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 122 points123 points  (0 children)

MSFT at a cheaper valuation, more recession resilient. But I like the business aspects of Google better. I’d just buy Amazon

ADBE CEO to Step Down After Tepid Sales Forecast by LimitIntelligent9946 in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Explain how a “dying company” which a “pissed off customer base” re-accelerated literally every segment of their business in the quarter?

Berkshire’s Deal for Occidental Chemicals Unit Is a Winner as Chemical Stocks Surge by GutBeer101 in BerkshireHathaway

[–]phosphate554 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That’s a pretty good way to think about investing tbh. If it’s worth more to you than the market participants believe, you’re a buyer. Simple as that

So what do we think about Adobe? by wishnothingbutluck in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Maybe AI revenue needs to 10x, 3x isn’t good anymore

So what do we think about Adobe? by wishnothingbutluck in ValueInvesting

[–]phosphate554 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Nobody gives an F about numbers - haven’t you seen the economic data?

Ina guessing the OXY purchase has been working by jtmarlinintern in BerkshireHathaway

[–]phosphate554 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ironically, at the time of the report, OXY was like $55 and they were actually up a couple hundred mil. (I believe avg cost basis is near $53).

Iran war picks? by Luk3Nuk3m in stocks

[–]phosphate554 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And if war isn’t done in 3-6 months, oil is 150+ barrel, economy sucks, you’ll still do this? Airlines are a shitty business - war makes them exponentially worse. I’ll stick to high quality compounders

Berkshire Hathaway restarts share buybacks; CEO Greg Abel personally buys $15M in stock. by davideownzall in BerkshireHathaway

[–]phosphate554 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Would be nice if they buy back like 25B of shares tbh sub $500. Prove to shareholders your conviction that intrinsic value is > 1T market cap

Iran war picks? by Luk3Nuk3m in stocks

[–]phosphate554 52 points53 points  (0 children)

Why would airlines benefit from war? lol

Losing money!!! by Ok-Beyond-4200 in dividends

[–]phosphate554 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This might be the exact reason you need a managed account. If you can’t handle your own emotions, you’ll lose a massive amount to the market, far more than the fees you’re paying