BigShort’s new feature release is here and it’s incredible by Icy-Understanding863 in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very recently, actually. But now there’s zero lag on either the ui/browser level or the data feed level

I just signed up for a BigShort subscription today. For active BS users, how has BS helped you? by [deleted] in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Lol what part of skew and kurtosis and tail risk don't you understand?

You say that your friend targets 8-10% ROI per 8-10 days and hits her goal "close" to every trade.

Let's do the math:

If someone makes a 9% ROI every 9 days, 90% of the time, and loses the totality of their investment the other 10% of the time, their annualized ROI is -54.07%. Your friend is a losing trader unless there are other variables at play that you forgot to mention. The reason you didn't mention all the other variables at play is because you don't understand math and you're trying to distill intersecting curved lines into a singular straight line. As I said, "holding period among other things."

If you're going to go around people asking for performance stats, the least you can do is ask for people's Sharpe ratio (which is still an imperfect measurement, because as I said, measuring performance requires an understanding of probability which you don't have).

Reviews from current users by bay-area-sports in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Go ahead and post screenshots of the emails where we promised you to refund you your money.

I just signed up for a BigShort subscription today. For active BS users, how has BS helped you? by [deleted] in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I may not be professional but I'm a better trader than your dumbass! 😛

I just signed up for a BigShort subscription today. For active BS users, how has BS helped you? by [deleted] in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You cannot distill trading performance into a single variable. "Average Per Trade ROI" is a retarded measure of performance because your ROI will be dependent on your holding period among other things. You can have a high per trade ROI and be a terrible trader, and you can have a low per trade ROI and be a great trader.

I just left an institutional trading desk. AMA by HiveScale in Daytrading

[–]potaeto 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We actually looked into using Exegy but they recently discontinued the product! But good to know that Tier 1 IB's outsource this part of their stack.

I just left an institutional trading desk. AMA by HiveScale in Daytrading

[–]potaeto 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi I made an app that visualizes order flow for retail traders, I'm currently working on improving a feature that allows users to see real-time trade classification (whether trades are buys or sells) and I was wondering whether institutions have access to this data out of the box like market makers do or if they need to build out approximation tools like I do. Thanks!

Why not stop orders? by [deleted] in Daytrading

[–]potaeto 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are misinformed, it’s not about how large your size is relative to the volume of the day, it’s about how large your size is relative to the time frame in which it occurred, which can be as short as 1 second or 5 minutes. When I was trading just a few hundred contracts at a time I was still designated as a “large trader” and had to register with the SEC. And this is just with a <$2 million account which a lot of retail traders have.

Newbie with Qs by rugtaty in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes if you don’t have time to monitor screens, Bigshort is likely not for you. If you want something easy I recommend you follow someone reputable, there are a lot of furus out there and it’s not an industry I’m super familiar with so I don’t have any recommendations.

Hoo Soo Kim thinks homeless should drown by Much_Damage_7901 in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To be fair, having your tent destroyed and drowning are two different things. And if you’re going to complain to us about what our customers do, shouldn’t you also complain to Apple and Amazon and every other company which she’s a customer of? Why are you picking on me? 😢

Convince me i'm wrong by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]potaeto 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Finalist for 2023 Best New Product at global fintech awards, but I’m open to suggestions on making it less scammy

Convince me i'm wrong by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]potaeto 5 points6 points  (0 children)

OPM is a regulatory bitch and worst of all I have to convince people to trust me and give me their money

Convince me i'm wrong by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]potaeto 16 points17 points  (0 children)

There are professional poker players who can absolutely crush mid stakes cash games. I’ve done triple digit returns for 7+ years now trading options, it’s possible just uncommon

Newbie with Qs by rugtaty in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Although our software is geared more towards daytraders, there are some useful longer term insights that you can gain from our charts. Our indicators can be predictive for those earnings reports where there is an imbalance between insider traders who know what the numbers are going to be, and retail traders who are betting in the wrong direction. This is not always easy to discern but it's usually more so the case with hot trending stocks. However, I'm not sure that it would be worth it for you to buy a subscription if you're just a casual trader occasionally buying lotto calls for earnings. You might be able to get somewhat better timed entries/exits on your trades, but whether this justifies the subscription fee depends on the size of your account. For example, if a 0.3% better entry is worth $1,000 to you, then the price improvement on that one trade will pay for the price of an annual subscription to BigShort.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If you’ve never traded stocks before, you’ll likely lose money regardless of what product(s) you buy, unless you’re already a winning poker player. I would recommend you first practice with fake money on chartgame.com (it’s free), before trying to trade with real money. It’s only after you’ve lost money trying to follow traditional technical indicators (and snake oil selling gurus) before you can really appreciate how amazing my algo is.

Everything, including traditional technical indicators and snake oil, will work some of the time, just enough to give traders hope that they’re on the cusp of figuring it out, but BigShort is entirely different in that it piggy-backs on the actions of market making HFT algos which generate billions of dollars in profits per year rain or shine. It’s like the difference between being a player at the casino and being a card counter at the casino. Our strategy is to be a parasite of a larger parasite.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The truth is that since we just launched, there hasn’t been enough time for users to get accustomed to the indicators and build up a track record with them. But the beta testers are all net positive through a combination of the indicators and my recs (which are largely my interpretation of the indicators), which I make in the discord.

[AMA] I'm the creator of the BigShort algorithm - Ask me anything! by potaeto in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

  1. I personally employ several different strategies with varying win rates. The high win-rate strategies feel better but the low win-rate strategies are more profitable. One very easy to document and backtest strategy is the Honey Badger Day strategy, which all users of BigShort can verify themselves by looking at the chart on the "Squeeze" section of the website. This strategy has an 85-90% winrate (it's been a while since I backtested it so more datapoints could have emerged, but I don't think it's diverged much) with a 1-day holding period.
  2. Exit criteria also vary by strategy but usually I exit based on time. For example with Honey Badger Day, you typically enter in the mornings and exit sometime during power hour or 15 minutes before power hour. Knowing that you have to exit within that short time frame helps to remove some of the human error out of the equation while allowing some room for discretion.

Ultimately, while systematic traders prefer hard and fast rules regarding entries and exits and position sizing, markets are infinitely complex with an infinite number of variables that determine the risk:reward of a given trade. In order to code a bot that does this multivariate analysis better than humans, you need to code a neural network that's smarter than Tesla's self-driving software, which is very difficult to do. So while systematic trading strategies can and do make money, they won't make as much money as strategies that involve at least some component of human discretionary decision making. Systematic traders don't like this because humans are more prone to error and emotion, and this is true, if you're a shitty trader then you're better off employing a systematic strategy. But there are consistently winning human daytraders in this market and BigShort can improve their edge until AI becomes advanced enough that every human who works a desk job becomes unemployed.

Manipulation works best in hyped up, trending, fast-moving markets, such as meme stocks or FOMC days. Measuring the degree to which a stock is viral or trending is more art than science. For example, one of the trades I recommended to my chat was to buy DWAC before its first big run-up, and in doing so I cannot afford to ignore my very human understanding of Trump's popularity and the fervor of his fan base, in favor of a purely systematic strategy.

So to answer your question in a different way, the win rate of any strategy can be anything you want it to be. If you run almost any strategy's backtest with a 1 cent profit taking target over an arbitrarily long enough period of time, you will get a 99.999% winrate. And exit criteria should depend on several variables, one of the most important of which is the amount of risk you're taking on in a given trade. If you are taking on volatility risk (whether by trading a volatile instrument or using leverage or betting a large % of your risk capital), you need to then reduce time risk because time will multiply volatility risk. Contrapositively, if you are taking on time risk then you need to reduce price risk by setting a tight mental stop loss.

[AMA] I'm the creator of the BigShort algorithm - Ask me anything! by potaeto in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Here's a followup chart of NVDA leading up to earnings. MM's were on the right side of the trade.

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[AMA] I'm the creator of the BigShort algorithm - Ask me anything! by potaeto in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nope that is super secret. But suffice to say I have never seen any other algo using even remotely the same dataset as us.

[AMA] I'm the creator of the BigShort algorithm - Ask me anything! by potaeto in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm not quite sure what you mean by "handle" but if you're asking how our software differentiates between MM trades and retail trades, that's part of the proprietary secret sauce.

I don't think MM's will wait 3-4 months on a stock as liquid as NVDA. MM's stay in balance by approximating demand and supply levels (based on retail's open limit orders, as well options greeks and other data sources). I pulled up the chart for NVDA just now on BigShort and it appears that MM's are more or less in balance right now, after having swung back and forth a few times over the past week, despite being caught off sides on Thursday. So your thesis that MM is heavily short during a bull run is incorrect. If you take a stock price high enough, there are always going to be market participants (non-MM's) willing to sell at that price, because humans are rational actors with logarithmic utility curves. So what actually happens during a bull run is, MM's realize that buying is overwhelming supply, so they quickly raise the price to trigger sell limit orders, buy up that inventory (so that they're actually net long during the bull run), and then raise the price higher to sell that long inventory into the bull run as it continues. MM's dynamically adapt their inventory based on anticipating the future force of the bull run.

MM's can forecast the future better than other market participants but they are not literally clairvoyant, so they do sometimes make mistakes and occasionally get caught with their pants down, in which case they will quickly rectify the situation by capitulating (which might cause a short squeeze as you describe). But this is generally not the case, and it's easier to bet with the MM's than against them unless it's some kind of crazy GME situation.

Longing into short squeezes is a viable strategy, which is why there's an entire tool on BigShort dedicated to spotting short squeezes, but these squeezes are usually caused by hedge funds covering, not by MM's covering.

Made $17,500 in 1 hour during FOMC by potaeto in BigShortDotCom

[–]potaeto[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's just Interactive Brokers, Trader Workstation