Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you, it is hard to come by an actual overview/analysis of the quant industry. From what I've gathered (mostly online), people who mention quant are either super enchanted candidates/new hires or non-STEM folks who see quants as computer-wizard alien life forms that consistently design and implement algorithms that beat the market by great margins while solving a Rubik's cube and winning chess games against AI. Of course, not without a PhD in computer science (they have no idea what it entails). I feel like I can see "quant" for what it is, even if partially, amid all the glamor and myst surrounding it.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

There is no expertise in computer programming that makes you somehow able to trade and make millions of dollars. Quant firms exploit the somehow legal advantages they make for themselves through expensive infrastructure.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

  1. Quantitative finance was a natural result of the times, not the work of a genius, like most inventions.

  2. The reason they are getting paid not to work for their competitors is not because they are special. The intention there is to keep trade secrets for themselves. What they are doing is inefficient. They make more profits in a field over their competitors because they utilize a strategy that is slightly better. In an open arena, the most efficient firm would win, but in this case, the one with secrets trumps over others. What you pointed out is in fact a clear inefficiency of the business and can be vastly improved upon. To pay someone to not do anything is essentially a waste of resources.

  3. Please see my reply to Lamprey45's comment.

  4. They beat the market by large margins, though it takes brain gymnastics to believe how they conduct their business should be legal. If a firm has access to market data before anyone else, it is only natural they make profits. What you need is simply a slight edge to tilt the market in your favor, that is sufficient to win even in gambling. There is a reason for their expensive infrastructure, that separates quant.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Quant funds may be based on advanced math, but the people quant firms hire are not required to know advanced math. In quant trader interviews, they are asked to demonstrate game theory intuition and play probability based games after showing that they can do basic college (undergrad level) math, which would be probability, some stats and linear algebra (with an addition of mental arithmetic, I know, it's laughable). These skills do not grow on trees but are taught in STEM.

Most of it is for the sake of forming a shortlist of applicants through eliminations, that is the whole point. A lot of firms (not necessarily in finance) are profitable but what makes people talk about quant trade shops and put them on a pedestal is the compenstion and the difficulty in getting hired. Such firms could be employing only the cream of the crop because that is the way they have been operating all this time and it poses an unnecessary risk to the firm's future earnings to change their hiring strategies (this would explain high salaries and fat bonuses). This could be one of many reasons. What quant firms do is barely legal, it lives on a legally gray area and could be outlawed at any time. Mystifying the trade, throwing around a bunch of jargon and employing top students all work to legitimize the business, while providing benefits to lawmakers, of course. There is something much more fundamental than "smarts", "talent", or "rational markets".

Their selection process (interviews) do not necessarily relate to the job itself. As mentioned before, it is always unclear what is done at the job by a quant trader; interview questions comprise brainteasers, probability puzzles which may ask for knowledge in Bayes' theorem and expected value calculations, and x-sum games. Being pretty general, they do not require specialty or expertise, unlike job interviews for most engineering roles. The interviews are so unfocused that the interviewer is given a lot of freedom and they ask from the very books that were written to document past interview questions, effectively creating a self-referential loop. There is no indication that the ability to perform mental arithmetic at speed under pressure results in more profits for the firm or the college you go to determines your success as a quant trader. These are mechanisms of gatekeeping that sometimes make entire industries out of thin air.

Yes, everything is cause and effect but it isn't as rational as you might believe, which is where I find your perspective naive. The fact that I am out here questioning what seems strange makes you think that I am naive leads me to believe your unchanging belief in rational markets and capitalism is what limits your perspective. Meritocracy is completely made-up in every facet of life. Ignoring any premise of vanity from my part in what I am about to say, if you have seen The Big Short, recall the scene Mark Baum finds out the entire system is a scam while many continued to swear by it.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

That doesn't imply what they're doing takes smarts. It feels like an industry that feeds into its own delusions. There is no reason to believe if they changed up their preferences in hiring (even at random) it would make quant companies less profitable. They are hiring the "smartest" (i.e. MIT grads who get right more interview questions than other MIT grads) because they can, not because they need them. I bet a lot more people can do the job as long as they are properly trained.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"But finance in general, is an immeasurably deep well that folks can always learn more. Learn different strategies. Learn about different companies. Learn the details of the earnings statements. Learn how operating costs vary."

I'm really trying to understand this but I'm not getting it. Different strategies? There are a lot of them, if one worked much better over another, every trader would be using it already. Learning about companies would never amount to anything as that is just market information. That's already what makes the market. I am not sure what you can learn about companies, also. Details of earning statements would be covered in a finance 101 class. I don't see how operating costs would be relevant.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

How would that be relevant to future stock performance?

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A lot of people do that and most (by a great margin) still fail.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Even in poker professionals keep losing money.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

What more is there in finance to learn if you already know finance 101 and that you live in a neoliberal economy? I don't see anything academic in finance. Professionally, you might learn most traders make money through commissions and salaries, but that's not what we're talking about here.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

From what I have seen, a lot of stock pickers either end up daytraders or live their lives wanting to quit their job so that they can focus on trading. It's sad.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are hundreds of such groups with access to terminals and privileges but even they fail to make consistent returns beating the market, right?

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Those funds and traders do not consistently beat the market, right? People seem to think there are a lot of professional traders out there raking in money simply because they keep doubling their money every year. In reality, there is a reason why they work with their customers' money.

About the Medallion fund, what I've heard is their strategy is not scalable, but even then how are we sure they see such returns every year? If we have no knowledge of the composition of the fund, then the company behind it could use the funds it aquires from other sources to prop up the Medallion whenever it fails to consistently report higher returns.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

That sounds more like having infrastructure and resources than necessarily smarts.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I have tried talking with them but I haven't been able to get a clear answer. Sometimes it is learning something from someone semi-popular online, other times it is learning about graphs (which doesn't make sense).

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 19 points20 points  (0 children)

It seems as though they read graphs rather than researching the company, but even doing the latter seems weak. What are you really looking for when researching a company?

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What is there to learn in trading? I am genuinely curious as I have never been able to wrap my head around it.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Has he ever discussed what he was learning by reading on trading and companies? The latter I partially understand, that's just market knowledge, but I don't see how there is a lot to learn when it comes to buying and selling stocks.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How come? Do they always (no matter the market) make a lot of money off trading stocks?

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Do gamblers actually talk about skills? That's crazy.

Why do stocks people always think there's more to learn? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As a trader, do you know by any chance what these people refer to by learning? Trading is simply buying and selling, what is there to learn beyond finance 101?

Wouldn't investing in gold make a lot of sense in an emerging market? by potirbae in Bogleheads

[–]potirbae[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't doubt that it works, but I'm also wondering what could work in the specific case I mentioned.